Thao P Le, Thomas K Waring, Howard Bondell, Andrew P Robinson, Christopher M Baker
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Adaptive sampling method to monitor low-risk pathways with limited surveillance resources.
The rise of globalization has led to a sharp increase in international trade with high volumes of containers, goods, and items moving across the world. Unfortunately, these trade pathways also facilitate the movement of unwanted pests, weeds, diseases, and pathogens. Each item could contain biosecurity risk material, but it is impractical to inspect every item. Instead, inspection efforts typically focus on high-risk items. However, low risk does not imply no risk. It is crucial to monitor the low-risk pathways to ensure that they are and remain low risk. To do so, many approaches would seek to estimate the risk to some precision, but increasingly lower risks require more samples. On a low-risk pathway that can be afforded only limited inspection resources, it makes more sense to assign fewer samples to the lower risk activities. We approach the problem by introducing two thresholds. Our method focuses on letting us know whether the risk is below certain thresholds, rather than estimating the risk precisely. This method also allows us to detect a significant change in risk. Our approach typically requires less sampling than previous methods, while still providing evidence to regulators to help them efficiently and effectively allocate inspection effort.
期刊介绍:
Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include:
• Human health and safety risks
• Microbial risks
• Engineering
• Mathematical modeling
• Risk characterization
• Risk communication
• Risk management and decision-making
• Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics
• Laws and regulatory policy
• Ecological risks.