研究印度喜马拉雅山西北部地区面对多种灾害时的社会脆弱性。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI:10.1111/risa.14340
Lucky Sharma, Narendra Kumar Rana, Shiva Kant Dube
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类活动和多种灾害相互作用造成的风险不断增加,使灾害与社会的关系变得更加复杂。潜在的脆弱性对于预测多种灾害可能造成的影响至关重要。因此,对社会脆弱性的评估对于推断驱动因素和制定减灾战略具有决定性意义。喜马拉雅山地貌容易受到多种灾害的影响,而且由于人文景观的不断变化而具有多种脆弱性。因此,我们试图探究造成该地区易受多种灾害影响的潜在社会经济因素。社会脆弱性指数(SVIent)由 13 个指标和 33 个变量组成。使用最大和最小标准化方法对变量进行标准化,并使用香农熵方法确定每个指标的相对重要性,以计算 SVIent。研究结果表明,女性人口、60 岁以上人口、净灌溉面积、流动人口、破旧房屋、非工人、银行和非工人求职是造成脆弱性的相对重要因素。研究地区的西部被归类为高度脆弱类别(SVI > 0.40628),原因是依赖程度高、失业工人比例高和贫困程度高。经双尾检验,SVIent 与失业率、社会经济地位、移民、依赖性和家庭结构之间存在显著的正相关关系。本研究的影响体现在影响决策者和利益相关者制定减缓战略和政策文件的决策。
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Examining social vulnerability to multi-hazards in North-Western Himalayas, India.

The enhancing risk from human action and multi-hazard interaction has substantially complicated the hazard-society relationship. The underlying vulnerabilities are crucial in predicting the probable impact to be caused by multi-hazards. Thus, the evaluation of social vulnerability is decisive in inferring the driving factor and preparing for mitigation strategies. The Himalayan landscape is prone to multiple hazards as well as possesses a multitude of vulnerabilities owing to changing human landscape. Thus, an attempt has been made to inquire into the underlying socioeconomic factors enhancing the susceptibility of the region to multi-hazards. The social vulnerability index (SVIent) has been introduced, consisting of 13 indicators and 33 variables. The variables have been standardized using the maximum and minimum normalization method and the relative importance for each indicator has been determined using Shannon entropy methods to compute SVIent. The findings revealed that female population, population above 60 years old, net irrigated area, migrant population, dilapidated house, nonworkers, bank, and nonworkers seeking jobs were found to be relatively significant contributors to the vulnerability. The western part of the study area was classified as the highly vulnerable category (SVI > 0.40628), attributed to high dependence, and higher share of unemployed workers and high poverty. The SVIent was shown to have positive correlation between unemployment, socioeconomic status, migration, dependency, and household structure significant at two-tailed test. The study's impact can be found in influencing the decision of policymakers and stakeholders in framing the mitigation strategies and policy documents.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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