Simulations of Future Trends in Welfare-Centric Egg Production Systems: Impacts on Productivity and Prices.

The implementation of more animal welfare-centric livestock production systems holds considerable potential for achieving sustainable production in Japan. However, such systems generally reduce productivity per unit area, impose financial burdens on farmers that adversely affect their physical and mental health, and require increased consumer awareness. In particular, declines in productivity per unit area substantially affect the farming economy, giving rise to concerns about the sufficient egg production for the population, which consequently exacerbates Japan's food security concerns. In this study, our goal was to predict temporal trends in the Japanese transition to welfare-centric facilities by analyzing desired egg consumption. We formulated five scenarios, ending in 2050, to assess the future impact of changing the proportions of types of egg production on total production, numbers of hens, total farm area, production costs, and retail prices. Multiple issues were identified in our analysis. First, Japanese production uses conventional caging, which provides high efficiency, maximum output, and decreased prices. Our simulations suggest that ensuring optimal production is likely to present challenges as animal welfare is addressed. They also suggest that the poultry industry or the Japanese government will likely need to plan changes in production methods will likely be necessary to prevent egg surpluses and/or shortages. Additional issues were identified, including price increases, numbers of hens, total farm area, and production costs. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers in their decision-making processes to help optimize production methods while considering food security, animal welfare, and farmers' welfare.