{"title":"基于马尔可夫链理论的天然气管道泄漏风险评估与模拟","authors":"Yue Feng , Jingqi Gao , Xinwei Yin , Jianwu Chen , Xiang Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105370","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Gas pipeline leakage may lead to fire, explosion and gas poisoning, thus causing a large number of injuries and property damage. This paper focuses on the chain characteristics presented by the development process of city gas pipeline leakage, based on Markov chain theory, studies the disaster-causing process and the mechanism of disaster chain formation for the leakage, establishes the disaster chain, evaluates the pipeline operation status and quantifies the failure probability of gas pipeline leakage to determine the causes of the leakage. Subsequently, Pipeline Studio is applied to simulate the consequences of gas pipeline leakage to realize the risk analysis. The analysis is based on Markov chain theory to calculate the probability of leakage and disaster-causing causes, analyze the consequences of gas pipeline leakage, and realize the diagnosis of the causes of gas pipeline leakage accidents and the prediction of the accident development trend. Finally, using European gas pipeline accident data to prove the effectiveness of the method, the result shows that gas pipeline leakage accidents are mainly caused by third-party damage and corrosion, which is consistent with the real situation and provides a reference for risk analysis and accident prevention of gas pipeline leakage.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16291,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk assessment and simulation of gas pipeline leakage based on Markov chain theory\",\"authors\":\"Yue Feng , Jingqi Gao , Xinwei Yin , Jianwu Chen , Xiang Wu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jlp.2024.105370\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Gas pipeline leakage may lead to fire, explosion and gas poisoning, thus causing a large number of injuries and property damage. This paper focuses on the chain characteristics presented by the development process of city gas pipeline leakage, based on Markov chain theory, studies the disaster-causing process and the mechanism of disaster chain formation for the leakage, establishes the disaster chain, evaluates the pipeline operation status and quantifies the failure probability of gas pipeline leakage to determine the causes of the leakage. Subsequently, Pipeline Studio is applied to simulate the consequences of gas pipeline leakage to realize the risk analysis. The analysis is based on Markov chain theory to calculate the probability of leakage and disaster-causing causes, analyze the consequences of gas pipeline leakage, and realize the diagnosis of the causes of gas pipeline leakage accidents and the prediction of the accident development trend. Finally, using European gas pipeline accident data to prove the effectiveness of the method, the result shows that gas pipeline leakage accidents are mainly caused by third-party damage and corrosion, which is consistent with the real situation and provides a reference for risk analysis and accident prevention of gas pipeline leakage.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16291,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024001281\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423024001281","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
燃气管道泄漏可能引发火灾、爆炸、煤气中毒等事故,造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失。本文针对城市燃气管道泄漏发展过程呈现的链式特征,以马尔可夫链理论为基础,研究泄漏的致灾过程和灾害链形成机理,建立灾害链,评估管道运行状况,量化燃气管道泄漏的失效概率,确定泄漏原因。随后,应用 Pipeline Studio 模拟燃气管道泄漏的后果,实现风险分析。分析以马尔可夫链理论为基础,计算泄漏概率和致灾原因,分析燃气管道泄漏后果,实现燃气管道泄漏事故原因诊断和事故发展趋势预测。最后,利用欧洲燃气管道事故数据证明了该方法的有效性,结果表明燃气管道泄漏事故主要由第三方破坏和腐蚀引起,与实际情况相符,为燃气管道泄漏风险分析和事故预防提供了参考。
Risk assessment and simulation of gas pipeline leakage based on Markov chain theory
Gas pipeline leakage may lead to fire, explosion and gas poisoning, thus causing a large number of injuries and property damage. This paper focuses on the chain characteristics presented by the development process of city gas pipeline leakage, based on Markov chain theory, studies the disaster-causing process and the mechanism of disaster chain formation for the leakage, establishes the disaster chain, evaluates the pipeline operation status and quantifies the failure probability of gas pipeline leakage to determine the causes of the leakage. Subsequently, Pipeline Studio is applied to simulate the consequences of gas pipeline leakage to realize the risk analysis. The analysis is based on Markov chain theory to calculate the probability of leakage and disaster-causing causes, analyze the consequences of gas pipeline leakage, and realize the diagnosis of the causes of gas pipeline leakage accidents and the prediction of the accident development trend. Finally, using European gas pipeline accident data to prove the effectiveness of the method, the result shows that gas pipeline leakage accidents are mainly caused by third-party damage and corrosion, which is consistent with the real situation and provides a reference for risk analysis and accident prevention of gas pipeline leakage.
期刊介绍:
The broad scope of the journal is process safety. Process safety is defined as the prevention and mitigation of process-related injuries and damage arising from process incidents involving fire, explosion and toxic release. Such undesired events occur in the process industries during the use, storage, manufacture, handling, and transportation of highly hazardous chemicals.