评估气候变化对 Argyrotaenia sphaleropa(Meyrick,1909 年)瘤胃的影响:对巴西南部水果生产的影响。

IF 1.4 3区 农林科学 Q2 ENTOMOLOGY Neotropical Entomology Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-14 DOI:10.1007/s13744-024-01167-0
Hevellyn Talissa Dos Santos, Cesar Augusto Marchioro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

卷叶虫 Argyrotaenia sphaleropa(Meyrick)是温带水果的一种重要害虫。它的生物学特性和种群动态受温度影响很大。在这种情况下,本研究旨在选择一种数学模型,以准确描述卷叶虫随温度变化的发育速度,并应用该模型预测气候变化对巴西南部该害虫年世代数(伏期)的影响。该研究采用了九个数学模型来拟合该物种在不同恒定温度下的发育速度。利用当前时期(1994-2013 年)的气候数据以及 2050 年和 2070 年的预测数据对伏旱进行了预测。Brière-1模型(D(T)= aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2)最能拟合随温度变化的蛛形纲发育率。根据该模型,在目前的气候条件下,巴拉那州北部和中部地区、圣卡塔琳娜州西部和东北部地区以及南里奥格兰德州西北部地区的伏缺率最高。该模型还预测,由于气候变化的影响,A. sphaleropa 伏旱现象会加剧,尤其是在圣卡塔琳娜州和南里奥格兰德州的山区,预计增幅高达 25.1%。这些地区涵盖了大部分被卷叶虫用作寄主的温带水果种植区。这项研究标志着在了解全球变暖对A. sphaleropa卷叶虫影响方面取得了重大进展,并表明即将到来的气候条件很可能有利于巴西南部大部分地区的该物种。
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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.

The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.

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来源期刊
Neotropical Entomology
Neotropical Entomology 生物-昆虫学
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
5.60%
发文量
69
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Neotropical Entomology is a bimonthly journal, edited by the Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil (Entomological Society of Brazil) that publishes original articles produced by Brazilian and international experts in several subspecialties of entomology. These include bionomics, systematics, morphology, physiology, behavior, ecology, biological control, crop protection and acarology.
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