Hevellyn Talissa Dos Santos, Cesar Augusto Marchioro
{"title":"评估气候变化对 Argyrotaenia sphaleropa(Meyrick,1909 年)瘤胃的影响:对巴西南部水果生产的影响。","authors":"Hevellyn Talissa Dos Santos, Cesar Augusto Marchioro","doi":"10.1007/s13744-024-01167-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-T<sub>L</sub>)(T<sub>H</sub>-T)<sup>1/2</sup>) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.</p>","PeriodicalId":19071,"journal":{"name":"Neotropical Entomology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.\",\"authors\":\"Hevellyn Talissa Dos Santos, Cesar Augusto Marchioro\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s13744-024-01167-0\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-T<sub>L</sub>)(T<sub>H</sub>-T)<sup>1/2</sup>) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19071,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Neotropical Entomology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Neotropical Entomology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13744-024-01167-0\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/6/14 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENTOMOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Neotropical Entomology","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13744-024-01167-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/6/14 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENTOMOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick, 1909) Voltinism: Implications for Fruit Production in Southern Brazil.
The leafroller Argyrotaenia sphaleropa (Meyrick) is an important pest of temperate fruits. Its biology and population dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature. In this context, this study aims to select a mathematical model that accurately describes the temperature-dependent development rate of A. sphaleropa and applies this model to predict the impact of climate change on the number of annual generations (voltinism) of the pest in southern Brazil. Nine mathematical models were employed to fit the species' developmental rate at different constant temperatures. Voltinism was projected using climate data from the current period (1994-2013) and projections for 2050 and 2070. The Brière-1 model (D(T) = aT(T-TL)(TH-T)1/2) provided the best fit for the temperature-dependent developmental rate of A. sphaleropa. According to this model, the regions with the highest voltinism under current climatic conditions are the northern and central areas of Paraná, the western and northeastern regions of Santa Catarina, and northwestern Rio Grande do Sul. The model also predicts a rise in A. sphaleropa voltinism as a consequence of climate change, especially in the mountainous regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with projected increases of up to 25.1%. These regions encompass most areas where temperate fruits used as hosts by the leafroller are cultivated. This study represents a significant advancement in understanding the implications of global warming on A. sphaleropa voltinism and suggests that forthcoming climatic conditions will likely favor the species across much of southern Brazil.
期刊介绍:
Neotropical Entomology is a bimonthly journal, edited by the Sociedade Entomológica do Brasil (Entomological Society of Brazil) that publishes original articles produced by Brazilian and international experts in several subspecialties of entomology. These include bionomics, systematics, morphology, physiology, behavior, ecology, biological control, crop protection and acarology.