尼日利亚存款货币银行稳健性评估:银行计模型

Ezekiel Oseni
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摘要

鉴于利益相关者越来越依赖尼日利亚存款银行作为实现个人和企业繁荣(财富、获得资金、提高生活水平等)的催化剂,本研究对尼日利亚存款银行的稳健性进行了考察。 该研究使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的银行指数模型对 13 家银行进行了为期 10 年(2013-2022 年)的调查分析。研究发现,国际货币基金组织的银行指数模型变量对银行的稳健性有重大影响,因此该模型被认为适合用于评估银行以确定其健康状况。其次,研究发现,在 2013 年至 2022 年期间接受检查的尼日利亚银行中,92.30% 的偿付能力分数(s-score)高于国际货币基金组织模型的 70% 最低健全性阈值。这意味着所有银行都很健康,只有一家银行的s-score为负数,表明其处于严重的困境之中。不过,外资附属银行比一级银行更健康,而有三家二级银行的 s-score 分数高于一家一级银行。监管机构应积极主动地开展监测活动,而不是仅仅依赖于对银行历史业绩的审查。 此外,监管机构应制定机制,预测每家银行和每个衡量指标的未来趋势,以便采取预防措施,确保金融稳定,保护所有利益相关者的利益。
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Evaluation of Nigerian Deposit Money Banks’ Soundness: Bankometer Model
The study examined the soundness of the Nigerian deposit money banks in view of stakeholders’ increasing dependence on it as a catalyst for achieving individual and corporate prosperity (wealth, access to funding, improved standard of living, etc.).  The study examined 13 banks over a period of 10 years (2013 - 2022) using both ordinarily least square (OLS) and the IMF’s bankometer model for its analysis. The study observed that the IMF’s bankometer model variables exert significant influence on the soundness of the banks and therefore the model was found appropriate to evaluate banks to determine their state of health. Secondly, the study observed 92.30% of the Nigerian banks examined between 2013 and 2022 had solvency-score (s-score) above IMF’s model soundness minimum threshold of 70%. This implies that all the banks were healthy with the exception of one bank that had a negative s-score indicating a serious state of distress. The foreign affiliated banks were however found to be healthier than the 1st tier banks while three of the the 2nd tier banks had s-score higher than one of the 1st tier banks. The regulators should be proactive in their monitoring activities, rather than depending only on the historical performance review of the banks.  Furthermore, the regulators should devise mechanisms to forecast future trends of each of the banks and for each of the measurement metrics to enable them take precautionary actions that would ensure financial stability and protect the interest of all the stakeholders.
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