木材气化:全球灾难性电力损失后延长燃料储备的可行战略

Biomass Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI:10.3390/biomass4020033
David Nelson, Alexey Turchin, David Denkenberger
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于核战争或世界性大流行病等可能造成全球灾难性基础设施损失的因素日益令人担忧,因此提高全球粮食生产和分配系统的复原力至关重要。目前,此类事件将导致全球工业损失,包括原油钻探和提炼能力的损失。在这种情况下,现有的地面柴油和汽油储备可能仍然完好无损,但只能在 158 天到 481 天之间(以 80% 的置信度计算)为食品生产和运输提供动力,而按照目前的速度,平均值为 195 天。本文针对在这些条件下提供粮食的情景,研究了一组新的干预措施。研究发现,通过使用木材气化、提高车辆利用率和减少粮食消耗的合理组合,库存持续时间可增加到 382 天至 1501 天(80% 置信度),其中平均值为 757 天。平均持续时间缩短了 3.9 倍。研究发现,在所有方案中,柴油都是限制性燃料,这是因为木煤气只能部分替代柴油燃料,而且柴油发动机在农业和卡车运输业中都很普遍。敏感性分析表明,将食物消耗量降至最低水平是延长柴油储备的最有效方法。从延长燃料储备的效果来看,其他受益因素包括缩短气化装置安装前的滞后时间、提高气化装置的安装率以及提高农业设备利用率。
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Wood Gasification: A Promising Strategy to Extend Fuel Reserves after Global Catastrophic Electricity Loss
It is crucial to increase the resilience of the global food production and distribution systems against the growing concerns relating to factors that could cause global catastrophic infrastructure losses, such as nuclear war or a worldwide pandemic. Currently, such an event would result in the global loss of industry, including the ability to drill and refine crude oil. In such an event, the existing above-ground reserves of diesel and gasoline are likely to still be intact but would only be able to power the production and transportation of food between 158 days and 481 days with 80% confidence, where the mean is 195 days at current rates. This paper investigates a novel group of interventions in relation to the scenario of providing food under these conditions. It was found that by using a plausible combination of wood gasification, increasing vehicle utilisation rate, and reducing food consumption, the stockpile duration could increase to between 382 days and 1501 days with 80% confidence, where the mean is 757 days. This is an improvement in mean duration by a factor of 3.9. It was discovered that diesel is the limiting fuel in all scenarios due to wood gas only being a partial replacement for diesel fuel and also because of the prevalence of diesel engines in both the agricultural and trucking industries. A sensitivity analysis was completed identifying that reducing food consumption to minimum levels was the most effective method to prolong diesel reserves. The other factors that benefited from extending fuel reserves in terms of their effectiveness are reducing the lag time before gasification devices are installed, increasing the rate at which gasification devices are installed, and increasing the agricultural equipment utilisation rate.
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