不同困境强度下的猎鸡和猎鹿博弈中的风险主导均衡

A. Elgazzar
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摘要

研究目的本研究探讨了风险规避困境和赌博意图困境的强度如何影响 "捉鸡游戏 "和 "猎鹿游戏 "中的风险主导均衡。重点是推导出风险主导均衡能使群体利益最大化的条件。方法:运用博弈论的基本概念来确定每个博弈的纳什均衡。通过操纵与风险规避和赌博意图困境相关的参数,模拟不同的博弈情景,观察由此产生的均衡。研究结果研究发现,在一定的风险规避困境强度下,随着赌博意图困境强度的降低,鸡博弈中的风险主导均衡会不断转向相互合作。在 SH 博弈中,在给定的赌博意图困境强度下,风险主导均衡的合作程度随着风险规避困境强度的增加而减小,取离散值为 1、0.5 和 0:结果表明,了解个人风险偏好对于预测这些博弈环境中的战略决策和均衡结果非常重要。结论吃鸡和猎鹿博弈中的风险主导均衡取决于风险规避困境和赌博意图困境的相对强度。考虑到这些因素,研究人员和政策制定者就能更好地预测在利益冲突和风险容忍度不同的情况下战略互动可能产生的结果。风险主导均衡可以为现实世界的冲突局势提供合理的解决方案,例如两伊关于共享石油和天然气资源的冲突。
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Risk-dominant Equilibrium in Chicken and Stag-hunt Games with Different Dilemma Strengths
Objective: This study investigates how the strength of risk-averting and gamble-intending dilemmas can affect the risk-dominant equilibrium in chicken and stag-hunt games. The focus is on deriving conditions under which the risk-dominant equilibrium can maximize group benefit. Methods: Basic concepts of game theory were used to determine the Nash equilibria of each game.The Harsanyi-Selten theory was applied to determine the risk-dominant equilibrium. By manipulating the parameters related to risk-averting and gamble-intending dilemmas, different game scenarios are sim-ulated to observe the resulting equilibria. Results: The study found that for a given strength of the risk-averting dilemma, the risk-dominant equilibrium in the chicken game continuously shifts towards mutual cooperation as the strength of the gamble-intending dilemma decreases. In the SH game, the degree of cooperation of the risk-dominant equilibrium for a given strength of the gamble-intending dilemma decreases with increasing strength of the risk-averting dilemma and takes the discrete values: 1, 0.5 and 0. The results show the importance of understanding individual risk preferences to predict strategic decisions and equilibrium outcomes in these game settings. Conclusion: The risk-dominant equilibrium in chicken and stag-hunt games depends on the relative strength of the risk-averting and gamble-intending dilemmas. By taking these factors into account, researchers and policy makers can better predict the likely outcomes of strategic interactions in scenarios with conflicting interests and different risk tolerances. The risk-dominant equilibrium can provide reasonable solutions to real-world conflict situations, such as the Iran-Iraq conflict over shared oil and gas resources.
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