通过大气污染实现太空可持续性?脱离轨道、大气层盲区和地球环境不公

Patrick Flamm, Daniel Lambach, Urs Schaefer-Rolffs, Claudia Stolle, Vitali Braun
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摘要

空间碎片是空间安全的一个重大问题,因为空间物体与哪怕是一小块碎片的碰撞都可能造成灾难性后果。最近地球轨道上卫星数量的急剧增加显然加剧了这种风险。在这种情况下,通过重返大气层来处理轨道碎片的做法日益普遍:空间碎片应 "在大气层中无害燃烧",以提供一个 "洁净的空间"。遗憾的是,关于脱离轨道对大气化学的环境影响的数据非常少,而且现场数据收集实际上是不可能的。现有的几项研究--包括我们自己的建模--一致认为,虽然目前脱轨的影响可能可以忽略不计,但预计低地轨道卫星的指数式增长可能会加剧风险。因此,空间可持续性可能会以破坏中高层大气的健康为代价,并可能带来不可预见的后果。在这一背景下,我们认为,为了可持续地管理低地轨道,我们必须克服这种我们称之为 "大气盲 "的问题:我们对通过轨道处置做法及其对大气的影响而形成的空间-地球系统联系的理解有限。虽然人们对外层空间的环保意识日益增强,但我们必须认识到,空间可持续性植根于更广泛的外层空间地缘政治背景之中,在这一背景下,空间基础设施的利益和风险分配极不平等。因此,我们认为,就离轨问题开展更多跨学科研究至关重要,因为这不仅仅是一个需要解决的技术性环境问题,也是一个关乎地球环境正义的内在政治问题。
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Space sustainability through atmosphere pollution? De-orbiting, atmosphere-blindness and planetary environmental injustice
Space debris is a major issue for space safety as any collision of a space object with even a small piece of debris can have catastrophic consequences. The most recent dramatic increase of the number of satellites in Earth’s orbit is clearly exacerbating the risks. In this context there is a growing norm of disposal of orbital debris through atmospheric re-entry: space debris is to ‘burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere’, in order to provide for a ‘clean space’. Unfortunately, there is very little data on the environmental impact of deorbiting on atmospheric chemistry and in-situ data collection is practically impossible. The few existing studies – our own modelling included – agree that while the current impact of deorbiting is likely negligible, the projected exponential growth of satellites in LEO could exacerbate the risks. In consequence, space sustainability may come at the expense of damaging the health of the middle and upper atmosphere, with potentially unforeseeable consequences. Against this backdrop, we argue that in order to manage LEO sustainably, we must overcome this – what we call – ‘atmosphere-blindness’: our limited understanding of space-Earth system links through orbital disposal practices and their atmospheric impacts. While there is growing environmental consciousness with regard to outer space, we need to acknowledge that space sustainability is embedded in a wider context of outer space geopolitics, where the benefits and risks of the space infrastructure are distributed highly unequally. In our view it is thus crucially important to undertake more interdisciplinary research on the issue of de-orbiting, as it is not merely a technical environmental problem to be fixed but also an inherently political matter of planetary scale environmental justice.
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