澳大利亚联邦:2023 年 7 月至 12 月

IF 0.6 4区 社会学 Q1 HISTORY Australian Journal of Politics and History Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.1111/ajph.13004
John Wanna
{"title":"澳大利亚联邦:2023 年 7 月至 12 月","authors":"John Wanna","doi":"10.1111/ajph.13004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>As the year 2023 unfolded the Albanese government initially seemed buoyed after the by-election win in the Victorian seat of Aston, improving their majority to five seats in the lower house, and the seeming inability of the Coalition parties under opposition leader Peter Dutton to become a formidable opponent or offer alternative policy agendas. The May Budget, with some modest cost of living relief of $14.6 billion to welfare recipients, had largely sank like a stone by the time parliament returned on 31st July after the winter break. Rising community concern was caused by rising inflation still trending over 4 per cent in December 2023, and a recent spate of cash rate increases by the Reserve Bank (12 increases of 0.25 per cent over 13 months in 2022–23; only one under the Coalition, and 11 under Labor) which had seen mortgage rates accelerate rising to between 5 and 7 per cent depending on loan terms and type of borrowing (interest only or standard). Inflation was spurred principally by a variety of factors, including home mortgages and rents, meat and groceries, insurance increases, petrol and electricity costs, medical and health costs, and transport.</p><p>Australia was also witnessing a slowing of economic growth with GDP falling to 1.4 per cent by December, unemployment rose to 3.9 per cent and job vacancies declined, business investment was modest, while household savings were at a historically low 3.2 per cent. There was considerable media commentary prediction a looming recession, and only increased government spending prevented one from actually occurring. The PM and Treasurer attempted to put a brave face on these austere developments while pre-occupied, and some would argue distracted, by the political priority of holding a referendum on Indigenous recognition. As politics took centre-stage on the government's agenda, the government was accused of neglecting its primary responsibilities of sound economic management and protecting national security.</p><p>Anthony Albanese was increasingly accused of breaking a long list of election promises, including reversing Labor's full commitment given innumerable times to the Stage 3 tax cuts, adverse changes to superannuation “nest-egg” entitlements purely to raise taxation, the much heralded election commitment to lower electricity prices when prices were sky-rocketing, reversing many labour market reforms to reinstate union influence and the near-abolition of casual work and the gig economy, pursuing anti-productivity agendas, the absence of any coherent water management plan for the Murray-Darling Basin. Labor was also criticised for either poor policy development or mismanagement in a range of portfolios, including inertia in defence, confused energy policy, inadequate aged care management and a pharmacists revolt over scripts, a poor inquiry into the COVID responses and lockdowns, uncontrolled migration, including unauthorised entries, and the reckless proliferation in international student visas, the lack of social housing, the massive blowouts of entitlements under the National Disability Insurance Scheme including now mental health sufferers, neglecting regional development by slashing 50 projects amounting to $120 billion, and not allowing more flights from Qatar Airlines to compete with Qantas. This litany of failings slowly began to be reflected in opinion poll support for the government with slight shifts towards the Coalition opposition. Polls in February 2023 had the government on 55 per cent support in two party preferred terms to 46 per cent for the Coalition, and this was largely held until September, but then support declined to 50–50 per cent by November 2023 as the government appeared to lose direction (<i>Newspoll</i> 2023).</p><p>Albanese's determination to conduct a referendum to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution and provide for an advisory “Voice” (and perhaps many sub-voices) not only to parliament but to executive government and all federal public institutions, rashly proved a step too far and a setback for reconciliation. Given economic pressures, there was also ample criticism over the political attention to this issue and the costs involved in conducting the referendum. Estimates put the total cost in excess of $1 billion when both the electoral administration and advertising costs were added to the sponsorships and campaign costs of the Yes and No camps. While there was a lot of goodwill towards some form of recognition and reconciliation, there was also as the ABC argued a “hesitant electorate.”</p><p>As the polling for the Yes case declined and the No case increased, a number of Indigenous spokespeople questioned why non-Indigenous people were entitled to vote in the referendum at all — completely ignorant of the entrenched constitutional provisions of a double-majority of eligible voters and states for it to be legitimate. One pollster conducting regular polls on the referendum reported that whenever one of the main spokespersons for the Yes case, Professor Marcia Langton, spoke in the media the Yes vote went down by a few percent and the No vote rose.</p><p>As polling for the Yes case began to collapse, the Coalition stepped up its opposition to the referendum making it a partisan issue. In political terms it was not clear that many members of the Labor government were as enthusiastic as Albanese, or his Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney and Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus were. Australia slid into the referendum held on 14th October with pockets of enthusiasm among certain elites, business notables, and some Indigenous groups, but with rising opposition and a certain bewilderment among many voters across the country.</p><p>The final results of the referendum confirmed that not a single state voted in favour of the proposals, and overall 60.06 per cent electors voted No while 39.94 per cent voted Yes, although interestingly around two million electors chose not to vote despite its ostensible compulsion (15,895,231 cast a vote — with 155,545 informal — from a total enrolment of 17,671,784, a turnout of 89.95 per cent). Queensland had the highest percentage No vote with 68.21 against, followed by SA with 64.17, then WA with 63.27, NT with 60.30, NSW with 58.96, and Victoria with 54.15. Only in the ACT did a majority say Yes with 61.29 per cent approval versus 33.71 per cent against. Nationally 33 electorates voted Yes, and 118 voted No, while three-quarters of Labor's own electorates also voted No. The referendum result was immediately seen as setting back reconciliation and stalling the government's Indigenous policy agenda, while Indigenous leaders called for a “week of silence.”</p><p>Albanese also did not learn from history about the difficulties of achieving a successful referendum requiring a double majority (of popular votes and at least four states). It should also be remembered that the 2023 referendum on Indigenous recognition in the Constitution was the second such proposal similarly to fail badly, with PM John Howard's attempt to insert a preamble recognising Indigenous ancestry in the Constitution in 1999 failing to win over any state and suffering a 61.06 per cent national vote against such an inclusion, an almost identical outcome to the Albanese attempt.</p><p>The ABC's Particia Karvelas reported feedback from regional Australian forums in the lead-up to the vote suggested many in the audiences were hostile to the proposals, with many arguing that Indigenous peoples already had it so good, would want more if the vote succeeded, and “got free cars and houses” which other Australians did not. Such views were reflected in the stronger No vote in remote, regional and outer-metropolitan areas than in the “woke” inner city electorates. Some of the most working-class Labor electorates recorded the highest No vote (Hunter, Blair, Paterson, Dobell, Spence, and Blaxland).</p><p>After the referendum defeat attention gradually returned to issues of Indigenous disadvantage and sexual abuse in communities.</p><p>Due to the resignation of former Employment minister Stuart Robert, the by-election in the safe Queensland LNP seat of Fadden with a healthy margin of 10.2 per cent was held in July, with mounting concerns over another Coalition loss after the Aston by-election loss in 2023. The LNP's Cameron Caldwell managed to increase his margin to 13.35 per cent over the perennial Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro. Then in September, NSW Liberal Senator Marise Payne, a senior cabinet minister from 2013 to 2022, resigned from parliament. She had held portfolios of Human Services, Defence and Foreign Affairs, and then was immediately replaced by the former lower house member Dave Sharma.</p><p>Three women Labor members of parliament died while in office in only two years: Senator Kimberley Kitching (see last federal chronicle), Peta Murphy MP in December and then Senator Linda White in February 2024. Significantly, Murphy working through a parliamentary committee had almost single-handedly championed a proposal for extensive restrictions on gambling advertising covering many mediums and venues, which was then largely ignored. The resulting by-election in the seat of Dunkley was retained by Labor after considerable policy recalibration by Albanese over the summer.</p><p>In December Senator Pat Dodson announced he would also be resigning from parliament due to ill-health. Much had been expected of the Indigenous leader, hand-picked in 2016 by opposition leader Bill Shorten, but the Senator had not risen to any great office in Labor during his eight years in parliament although was nominated as a “special envoy for reconciliation” by Albanese despite earlier being promised the job of Minister for Indigenous Australians. It was announced he would be replaced by Labor barrister Varun Ghosh.</p><p>Although pledges of support were made to Ukraine in its enduring resistance to the Russian invasion, now well over a year in duration, comparatively little actual logistical support was offered. A small number of armoured Bushmaster vehicles produced in Australia had already been sent and in July a further contingent of 30 were approved for transport to Kiev, taking our total commitment to around $1 billion on the government's costings. But the government refused to send other equipment such as Hawkei helicopters or any fighter aircraft, and when the ageing Taipan helicopters were to be decommissioned it refused to agree to send 45 airframes to Ukraine, insisting they be dismantled and buried here in the ground! A confounding decision, much to the annoyance of the Ukrainians, with the pretence that the helicopters could prove unreliable and non-serviceable. The defence department was certainly not anxious to hand over any major equipment mainly because it was informed there would be no compensation given from budgetary funds for any items given, but also we had little that was often operational. Notably, in last December the government had similarly refused a US request to attacks. The government was much happier in March when it announced that 123 Boxer Heavy Weapon Carriers produced here would be sold to Germany.</p><p>In July it was confirmed that Philip Lowe would not be extended as the Governor of the RBA and instead Michele Bullock the standing deputy would replace him, the first woman to hold the post. She joined Danielle Wood head of the Productivity Commission since November as one of the senior economic advisers to government. Former Infrastructure secretary Mike Mrdak was appointed as director of NBN in October. Kathryn Campbell the former departmental head of Human Services, Social Services and then Foreign Affairs was suspended and eventually sacked by the “Secretaries Board” in July over the Robodebt scandal after the Royal Commission report found her negligent and “failed to act.” The APS Secretaries Board took the decision to sever Ms Campbell as a collective leadership decision to underscore the importance of integrity and the public service coded of conduct. The Robodebt saga raised the issue of what do senior public servants do if they believe the minister of government were acting illegally or improperly (shades of the Canadian Gomery Commission's investigations).</p><p>The High Court threw a spanner in the works when it decided in late November that “indefinite detention” of illegal migrants hoping to live in Australia and refusing to go back to their countries or other third-party countries was suddenly unconstitutional! Effectively the court said that it was illegal for the government to imprison illegal migrants and economic transients indefinitely, and that only the judiciary could issue the punitive decision not the minister or department. The decision was based on an imputed but contentions notion of a “separation of powers” between the executive and judiciary (of which there is no mention in the Constitution, unlike the USA). Many of the 140 “illegal” detainees were detained because they were dangerous criminals who had committed murder, rape, bashing and paedophilia (and one was a notorious Malaysian “hit-man”), but this did not seem to worry the High Court judges. The two principal ministers involved, Clare O'Neil (Home Affairs) and Andrew Giles (Immigration), were caught like stunned deer in the headlights, unable to explain government policy, looking inept and incapable of responding to the decision, even though they had been given some warning by members of the judiciary. Giles proved unable to provide any substantive answers to questions in parliament except to restate that the government had to accept the court's decision. Accordingly, 140 detainees were released into the community, to much community outrage and concern among the public anxious these people would reoffend in their neighbourhoods (but most likely not where the judiciary elect to reside).</p><p>While the maverick MP Bob Katter was caused to ask Albanese: “who runs this place, you or the High Court?,” the government struggled to get legislation into parliament to help clarify its powers over immigration deportation and restricting visas from countries that would not take back supposed asylum-seekers who were to be sent back (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, Afghanistan). Unfortunately for the government the introduced bill was passed only by the lower house before the Xmas break, and was delayed in the Senate which sent the bill to a review committee. A number of Labor back-benchers soon criticised the Labor bill on the grounds it contravened the human rights of deportees!</p><p>Towards the year's end opinion polls dived for the Labor government. The referendum failure and the High Court's release of serious criminals, plus cost of living pressures, caused Labor's primary vote to drop to 31 per cent compared to the Coalition on 38 per cent. A total of 53 per cent were dissatisfied with Albanese's performance even more than Dutton's on 50 per cent disapproval. While the Murdoch press increasingly became hostile to Albanese, <i>The Australian</i> declared in a major review of the government's performance that the government had “fallen into a state of inertia.” Moreover, a former Labor insider claimed at the same time that the new government was in a mid-term malaise, opining: “did anyone think that the wheels could come off so fast” (<i>The Australian</i> 17 November 2023, and <i>Weekend Australian</i> 18–19 November). He firmly accused Albanese of a lack of preparation for office while in opposition and a lack of responsiveness while in government. Another Labor MP told the <i>Australian Financial Review</i> “the wheels are not falling off, but things are sticky” (17th November 2023). C'est la Vie!</p>","PeriodicalId":45431,"journal":{"name":"Australian Journal of Politics and History","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajph.13004","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Commonwealth of Australia July to December 2023\",\"authors\":\"John Wanna\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ajph.13004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>As the year 2023 unfolded the Albanese government initially seemed buoyed after the by-election win in the Victorian seat of Aston, improving their majority to five seats in the lower house, and the seeming inability of the Coalition parties under opposition leader Peter Dutton to become a formidable opponent or offer alternative policy agendas. The May Budget, with some modest cost of living relief of $14.6 billion to welfare recipients, had largely sank like a stone by the time parliament returned on 31st July after the winter break. Rising community concern was caused by rising inflation still trending over 4 per cent in December 2023, and a recent spate of cash rate increases by the Reserve Bank (12 increases of 0.25 per cent over 13 months in 2022–23; only one under the Coalition, and 11 under Labor) which had seen mortgage rates accelerate rising to between 5 and 7 per cent depending on loan terms and type of borrowing (interest only or standard). Inflation was spurred principally by a variety of factors, including home mortgages and rents, meat and groceries, insurance increases, petrol and electricity costs, medical and health costs, and transport.</p><p>Australia was also witnessing a slowing of economic growth with GDP falling to 1.4 per cent by December, unemployment rose to 3.9 per cent and job vacancies declined, business investment was modest, while household savings were at a historically low 3.2 per cent. There was considerable media commentary prediction a looming recession, and only increased government spending prevented one from actually occurring. The PM and Treasurer attempted to put a brave face on these austere developments while pre-occupied, and some would argue distracted, by the political priority of holding a referendum on Indigenous recognition. As politics took centre-stage on the government's agenda, the government was accused of neglecting its primary responsibilities of sound economic management and protecting national security.</p><p>Anthony Albanese was increasingly accused of breaking a long list of election promises, including reversing Labor's full commitment given innumerable times to the Stage 3 tax cuts, adverse changes to superannuation “nest-egg” entitlements purely to raise taxation, the much heralded election commitment to lower electricity prices when prices were sky-rocketing, reversing many labour market reforms to reinstate union influence and the near-abolition of casual work and the gig economy, pursuing anti-productivity agendas, the absence of any coherent water management plan for the Murray-Darling Basin. Labor was also criticised for either poor policy development or mismanagement in a range of portfolios, including inertia in defence, confused energy policy, inadequate aged care management and a pharmacists revolt over scripts, a poor inquiry into the COVID responses and lockdowns, uncontrolled migration, including unauthorised entries, and the reckless proliferation in international student visas, the lack of social housing, the massive blowouts of entitlements under the National Disability Insurance Scheme including now mental health sufferers, neglecting regional development by slashing 50 projects amounting to $120 billion, and not allowing more flights from Qatar Airlines to compete with Qantas. This litany of failings slowly began to be reflected in opinion poll support for the government with slight shifts towards the Coalition opposition. Polls in February 2023 had the government on 55 per cent support in two party preferred terms to 46 per cent for the Coalition, and this was largely held until September, but then support declined to 50–50 per cent by November 2023 as the government appeared to lose direction (<i>Newspoll</i> 2023).</p><p>Albanese's determination to conduct a referendum to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution and provide for an advisory “Voice” (and perhaps many sub-voices) not only to parliament but to executive government and all federal public institutions, rashly proved a step too far and a setback for reconciliation. Given economic pressures, there was also ample criticism over the political attention to this issue and the costs involved in conducting the referendum. Estimates put the total cost in excess of $1 billion when both the electoral administration and advertising costs were added to the sponsorships and campaign costs of the Yes and No camps. While there was a lot of goodwill towards some form of recognition and reconciliation, there was also as the ABC argued a “hesitant electorate.”</p><p>As the polling for the Yes case declined and the No case increased, a number of Indigenous spokespeople questioned why non-Indigenous people were entitled to vote in the referendum at all — completely ignorant of the entrenched constitutional provisions of a double-majority of eligible voters and states for it to be legitimate. One pollster conducting regular polls on the referendum reported that whenever one of the main spokespersons for the Yes case, Professor Marcia Langton, spoke in the media the Yes vote went down by a few percent and the No vote rose.</p><p>As polling for the Yes case began to collapse, the Coalition stepped up its opposition to the referendum making it a partisan issue. In political terms it was not clear that many members of the Labor government were as enthusiastic as Albanese, or his Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney and Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus were. Australia slid into the referendum held on 14th October with pockets of enthusiasm among certain elites, business notables, and some Indigenous groups, but with rising opposition and a certain bewilderment among many voters across the country.</p><p>The final results of the referendum confirmed that not a single state voted in favour of the proposals, and overall 60.06 per cent electors voted No while 39.94 per cent voted Yes, although interestingly around two million electors chose not to vote despite its ostensible compulsion (15,895,231 cast a vote — with 155,545 informal — from a total enrolment of 17,671,784, a turnout of 89.95 per cent). Queensland had the highest percentage No vote with 68.21 against, followed by SA with 64.17, then WA with 63.27, NT with 60.30, NSW with 58.96, and Victoria with 54.15. Only in the ACT did a majority say Yes with 61.29 per cent approval versus 33.71 per cent against. Nationally 33 electorates voted Yes, and 118 voted No, while three-quarters of Labor's own electorates also voted No. The referendum result was immediately seen as setting back reconciliation and stalling the government's Indigenous policy agenda, while Indigenous leaders called for a “week of silence.”</p><p>Albanese also did not learn from history about the difficulties of achieving a successful referendum requiring a double majority (of popular votes and at least four states). It should also be remembered that the 2023 referendum on Indigenous recognition in the Constitution was the second such proposal similarly to fail badly, with PM John Howard's attempt to insert a preamble recognising Indigenous ancestry in the Constitution in 1999 failing to win over any state and suffering a 61.06 per cent national vote against such an inclusion, an almost identical outcome to the Albanese attempt.</p><p>The ABC's Particia Karvelas reported feedback from regional Australian forums in the lead-up to the vote suggested many in the audiences were hostile to the proposals, with many arguing that Indigenous peoples already had it so good, would want more if the vote succeeded, and “got free cars and houses” which other Australians did not. Such views were reflected in the stronger No vote in remote, regional and outer-metropolitan areas than in the “woke” inner city electorates. Some of the most working-class Labor electorates recorded the highest No vote (Hunter, Blair, Paterson, Dobell, Spence, and Blaxland).</p><p>After the referendum defeat attention gradually returned to issues of Indigenous disadvantage and sexual abuse in communities.</p><p>Due to the resignation of former Employment minister Stuart Robert, the by-election in the safe Queensland LNP seat of Fadden with a healthy margin of 10.2 per cent was held in July, with mounting concerns over another Coalition loss after the Aston by-election loss in 2023. The LNP's Cameron Caldwell managed to increase his margin to 13.35 per cent over the perennial Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro. Then in September, NSW Liberal Senator Marise Payne, a senior cabinet minister from 2013 to 2022, resigned from parliament. She had held portfolios of Human Services, Defence and Foreign Affairs, and then was immediately replaced by the former lower house member Dave Sharma.</p><p>Three women Labor members of parliament died while in office in only two years: Senator Kimberley Kitching (see last federal chronicle), Peta Murphy MP in December and then Senator Linda White in February 2024. Significantly, Murphy working through a parliamentary committee had almost single-handedly championed a proposal for extensive restrictions on gambling advertising covering many mediums and venues, which was then largely ignored. The resulting by-election in the seat of Dunkley was retained by Labor after considerable policy recalibration by Albanese over the summer.</p><p>In December Senator Pat Dodson announced he would also be resigning from parliament due to ill-health. Much had been expected of the Indigenous leader, hand-picked in 2016 by opposition leader Bill Shorten, but the Senator had not risen to any great office in Labor during his eight years in parliament although was nominated as a “special envoy for reconciliation” by Albanese despite earlier being promised the job of Minister for Indigenous Australians. It was announced he would be replaced by Labor barrister Varun Ghosh.</p><p>Although pledges of support were made to Ukraine in its enduring resistance to the Russian invasion, now well over a year in duration, comparatively little actual logistical support was offered. A small number of armoured Bushmaster vehicles produced in Australia had already been sent and in July a further contingent of 30 were approved for transport to Kiev, taking our total commitment to around $1 billion on the government's costings. But the government refused to send other equipment such as Hawkei helicopters or any fighter aircraft, and when the ageing Taipan helicopters were to be decommissioned it refused to agree to send 45 airframes to Ukraine, insisting they be dismantled and buried here in the ground! A confounding decision, much to the annoyance of the Ukrainians, with the pretence that the helicopters could prove unreliable and non-serviceable. The defence department was certainly not anxious to hand over any major equipment mainly because it was informed there would be no compensation given from budgetary funds for any items given, but also we had little that was often operational. Notably, in last December the government had similarly refused a US request to attacks. The government was much happier in March when it announced that 123 Boxer Heavy Weapon Carriers produced here would be sold to Germany.</p><p>In July it was confirmed that Philip Lowe would not be extended as the Governor of the RBA and instead Michele Bullock the standing deputy would replace him, the first woman to hold the post. She joined Danielle Wood head of the Productivity Commission since November as one of the senior economic advisers to government. Former Infrastructure secretary Mike Mrdak was appointed as director of NBN in October. Kathryn Campbell the former departmental head of Human Services, Social Services and then Foreign Affairs was suspended and eventually sacked by the “Secretaries Board” in July over the Robodebt scandal after the Royal Commission report found her negligent and “failed to act.” The APS Secretaries Board took the decision to sever Ms Campbell as a collective leadership decision to underscore the importance of integrity and the public service coded of conduct. The Robodebt saga raised the issue of what do senior public servants do if they believe the minister of government were acting illegally or improperly (shades of the Canadian Gomery Commission's investigations).</p><p>The High Court threw a spanner in the works when it decided in late November that “indefinite detention” of illegal migrants hoping to live in Australia and refusing to go back to their countries or other third-party countries was suddenly unconstitutional! Effectively the court said that it was illegal for the government to imprison illegal migrants and economic transients indefinitely, and that only the judiciary could issue the punitive decision not the minister or department. The decision was based on an imputed but contentions notion of a “separation of powers” between the executive and judiciary (of which there is no mention in the Constitution, unlike the USA). Many of the 140 “illegal” detainees were detained because they were dangerous criminals who had committed murder, rape, bashing and paedophilia (and one was a notorious Malaysian “hit-man”), but this did not seem to worry the High Court judges. The two principal ministers involved, Clare O'Neil (Home Affairs) and Andrew Giles (Immigration), were caught like stunned deer in the headlights, unable to explain government policy, looking inept and incapable of responding to the decision, even though they had been given some warning by members of the judiciary. Giles proved unable to provide any substantive answers to questions in parliament except to restate that the government had to accept the court's decision. Accordingly, 140 detainees were released into the community, to much community outrage and concern among the public anxious these people would reoffend in their neighbourhoods (but most likely not where the judiciary elect to reside).</p><p>While the maverick MP Bob Katter was caused to ask Albanese: “who runs this place, you or the High Court?,” the government struggled to get legislation into parliament to help clarify its powers over immigration deportation and restricting visas from countries that would not take back supposed asylum-seekers who were to be sent back (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, Afghanistan). Unfortunately for the government the introduced bill was passed only by the lower house before the Xmas break, and was delayed in the Senate which sent the bill to a review committee. A number of Labor back-benchers soon criticised the Labor bill on the grounds it contravened the human rights of deportees!</p><p>Towards the year's end opinion polls dived for the Labor government. The referendum failure and the High Court's release of serious criminals, plus cost of living pressures, caused Labor's primary vote to drop to 31 per cent compared to the Coalition on 38 per cent. A total of 53 per cent were dissatisfied with Albanese's performance even more than Dutton's on 50 per cent disapproval. While the Murdoch press increasingly became hostile to Albanese, <i>The Australian</i> declared in a major review of the government's performance that the government had “fallen into a state of inertia.” Moreover, a former Labor insider claimed at the same time that the new government was in a mid-term malaise, opining: “did anyone think that the wheels could come off so fast” (<i>The Australian</i> 17 November 2023, and <i>Weekend Australian</i> 18–19 November). He firmly accused Albanese of a lack of preparation for office while in opposition and a lack of responsiveness while in government. Another Labor MP told the <i>Australian Financial Review</i> “the wheels are not falling off, but things are sticky” (17th November 2023). C'est la Vie!</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45431,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Australian Journal of Politics and History\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajph.13004\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Australian Journal of Politics and History\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"98\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.13004\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HISTORY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Australian Journal of Politics and History","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajph.13004","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HISTORY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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摘要

一位对全民公决进行定期调查的民调机构报告称,每当赞成票的主要发言人之一玛西娅-兰顿(Marcia Langton)教授在媒体上发表讲话时,赞成票就会下降几个百分点,而反对票则会上升。从政治角度看,工党政府中的许多成员显然并不像阿尔巴内斯或其土著事务部长琳达-伯尼(Linda Burney)和总检察长马克-德雷福斯(Mark Dreyfus)那样热衷于公投。在 10 月 14 日举行的全民公投中,澳大利亚的某些精英、商界名流和一些土著团体表现出了极大的热情,但全国各地许多选民的反对声浪却在不断高涨,并表现出了某种困惑。06% 的选民投了反对票,39.94% 的选民投了赞成票,但有趣的是,尽管公投表面上具有强制性,但仍有约 200 万选民选择不投票(投票总数为 17,671,784 人,投票率为 89.95%,其中 15,895,231 人投了反对票,155,545 人投了非正式票)。昆士兰州的反对票比例最高,为 68.21 票;其次是南澳大利亚州,为 64.17 票;然后是西澳大利亚州,为 63.27 票;北部地区为 60.30 票;新南威尔士州为 58.96 票;维多利亚州为 54.15 票。只有澳大利亚首都地区的赞成票占多数,赞成率为 61.29%,反对率为 33.71%。全民公决的结果立即被认为是和解的倒退和政府原住民政策议程的停滞,而原住民领袖们则呼吁 "沉默一周"。阿尔巴内斯也没有从历史中吸取教训,认识到成功举行全民公决需要双重多数(民众选票和至少四个州)的困难。人们还应该记得,2023 年关于在宪法中承认土著居民的公投是第二次类似的惨败提案,1999 年约翰-霍华德总理试图在宪法中加入承认土著居民血统的序言,但未能赢得任何一个州的支持,61.06% 的全国选票反对将土著居民纳入宪法,这一结果与阿尔巴内斯的尝试几乎相同。澳大利亚广播公司(ABC)的帕蒂西亚-卡尔维拉斯(Particia Karvelas)报道称,投票前澳大利亚地区论坛的反馈表明,许多受众对提案持敌视态度,许多人认为土著居民已经拥有了这么好的条件,如果投票成功,他们还想得到更多,而且 "还能得到免费的汽车和房子",而其他澳大利亚人却没有。这种观点反映在偏远、地区和大都市外围地区的反对票多于 "觉醒 "的内城选区。由于前就业部长斯图尔特-罗伯特(Stuart Robert)辞职,昆士兰新进步党在安全的法登(Fadden)选区以 10.2% 的健康优势在 7 月份举行了补选,人们越来越担心继 2023 年阿斯顿补选失利之后,联盟党会再次失利。新南威尔士自由党的卡梅伦-考德威尔(Cameron Caldwell)成功地将自己的优势扩大到了13.35%,超过了工党的常年候选人莱蒂西亚-德尔-法布罗(Letitia Del Fabbro)。随后,新南威尔士州自由党参议员玛丽斯-佩恩(Marise Payne)于9月辞去议会职务。她曾担任人类服务、国防和外交等部长职务,随后立即由前下院议员戴夫-夏尔马(Dave Sharma)接替。在短短两年内,工党有三名女议员在任期间去世:参议员金伯利-基钦(Kimberley Kitching)(见上一篇联邦纪事)、参议员佩塔-墨菲(Peta Murphy)(12 月)和参议员琳达-怀特(Linda White)(2024 年 2 月)。值得注意的是,墨菲通过议会委员会几乎以一己之力倡导了一项广泛限制赌博广告的提案,该提案涉及多种媒介和场所,但后来在很大程度上被忽视了。12 月,参议员帕特-多德森(Pat Dodson)宣布他也将因健康状况不佳辞去议员职务。这位由反对党领袖比尔-肖顿(Bill Shorten)于 2016 年钦点的土著领袖曾被寄予厚望,但这位参议员在工党的八年议会生涯中并未获得任何重要职位,尽管阿尔巴内塞早前曾许诺让他担任澳大利亚土著事务部长一职,并提名他担任 "和解特使"。据悉,他将由工党大律师瓦伦-戈什(Varun Ghosh)接替。 尽管我们承诺支持乌克兰对俄罗斯入侵的持久抵抗,但实际提供的后勤支持相对较少。我们已经派出了少量澳大利亚生产的 Bushmaster 装甲车,7 月份又批准了向基辅运送 30 辆装甲车,根据政府的成本计算,我们的总承诺达到了约 10 亿美元。但是,政府拒绝运送霍基直升机或任何战斗机等其他装备,在老旧的大班直升机即将退役时,政府又拒绝同意向乌克兰运送 45 架飞机,坚持要将其拆卸并埋入地下!这是一个令人困惑的决定,乌克兰人对此非常恼火,他们的借口是这些直升机可能证明是不可靠和不能使用的。当然,国防部并不急于移交任何主要装备,主要是因为它被告知,移交的任何物品都不会从预算资金中得到补偿,而且我们也没有什么可以经常使用的装备。值得注意的是,去年 12 月,政府同样拒绝了美国的攻击请求。今年 3 月,政府宣布将向德国出售在这里生产的 123 辆拳击手重型武器运输车,这让政府高兴了许多。7 月,政府证实菲利普-洛威(Philip Lowe)不会继续担任澳大利亚央行行长,而常务副行长米歇尔-布洛克(Michele Bullock)将接替他,她是首位担任该职务的女性。自 11 月起,她与丹尼尔-伍德(Danielle Wood)一起担任生产力委员会主席,成为政府高级经济顾问之一。前基础设施部部长 Mike Mrdak 于 10 月被任命为国家宽带网络总监。凯瑟琳-坎贝尔(Kathryn Campbell)曾先后担任过人力资源部、社会服务部和外交部部长,在皇家委员会的报告认定她玩忽职守且 "未采取行动 "后,她于7月因Robodebt丑闻被 "秘书委员会 "停职并最终被解雇。APS 秘书委员会决定将 Campbell 女士解职,作为一项集体领导决定,以强调诚信和公共服务行为准则的重要性。Robodebt 事件引发了这样一个问题:如果高级公务员认为政府部长的行为是非法或不当的,他们该怎么办?高等法院在 11 月下旬做出了一个决定,即 "无限期拘留 "希望在澳大利亚生活并拒绝返回本国或其他第三方国家的非法移民突然违反了宪法!实际上,法院表示,政府无限期监禁非法移民和经济过客是非法的,只有司法部门而不是部长或部门才能做出惩罚性决定。该判决的依据是行政部门和司法部门之间的 "三权分立"(与美国不同的是,美国宪法中并没有提及三权分立)。在 140 名 "非法 "被拘留者中,许多人被拘留的原因是他们是危险的罪犯,曾犯下谋杀、强奸、殴打和恋童癖(其中一人是臭名昭著的马来西亚 "杀手"),但高等法院的法官们似乎对此并不担心。有关的两位主要部长,克莱尔-奥尼尔(内政部长)和安德鲁-贾尔斯(移民部长),就像惊呆了的小鹿,无法解释政府的政策,显得无能无力,无法对判决做出回应,尽管司法部门的成员已经给了他们一些警告。事实证明,吉尔斯除了重申政府必须接受法院的裁决之外,无法对议会的提问做出任何实质性的回答。因此,140 名被拘留者被释放回社区,这引起了社会的强烈愤慨,公众担心这些人会在他们的社区(但很可能不是司法人员选择居住的地方)重新犯罪、在特立独行的国会议员鲍勃-卡特(Bob Katter)向阿尔巴内塞发问:"是你还是高等法院管理这个地方?"的同时,政府也在努力向议会提交立法,以帮助澄清其在驱逐移民和限制签证方面的权力,这些签证来自那些不愿意接收被遣返的所谓寻求庇护者的国家(如伊朗、伊拉克、缅甸和阿富汗)。不幸的是,政府提出的法案在圣诞节假期前仅在下议院获得通过,并在参议院被推迟,参议院将法案送交审查委员会。一些工党后座议员很快批评了工党法案,理由是该法案侵犯了被驱逐者的人权!临近年底,工党政府的民意调查结果大幅下滑。全民公决的失败和高等法院释放重刑犯,再加上生活成本的压力,导致工党的主要得票率降至 31%,而联盟党的得票率为 38%。
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Commonwealth of Australia July to December 2023

As the year 2023 unfolded the Albanese government initially seemed buoyed after the by-election win in the Victorian seat of Aston, improving their majority to five seats in the lower house, and the seeming inability of the Coalition parties under opposition leader Peter Dutton to become a formidable opponent or offer alternative policy agendas. The May Budget, with some modest cost of living relief of $14.6 billion to welfare recipients, had largely sank like a stone by the time parliament returned on 31st July after the winter break. Rising community concern was caused by rising inflation still trending over 4 per cent in December 2023, and a recent spate of cash rate increases by the Reserve Bank (12 increases of 0.25 per cent over 13 months in 2022–23; only one under the Coalition, and 11 under Labor) which had seen mortgage rates accelerate rising to between 5 and 7 per cent depending on loan terms and type of borrowing (interest only or standard). Inflation was spurred principally by a variety of factors, including home mortgages and rents, meat and groceries, insurance increases, petrol and electricity costs, medical and health costs, and transport.

Australia was also witnessing a slowing of economic growth with GDP falling to 1.4 per cent by December, unemployment rose to 3.9 per cent and job vacancies declined, business investment was modest, while household savings were at a historically low 3.2 per cent. There was considerable media commentary prediction a looming recession, and only increased government spending prevented one from actually occurring. The PM and Treasurer attempted to put a brave face on these austere developments while pre-occupied, and some would argue distracted, by the political priority of holding a referendum on Indigenous recognition. As politics took centre-stage on the government's agenda, the government was accused of neglecting its primary responsibilities of sound economic management and protecting national security.

Anthony Albanese was increasingly accused of breaking a long list of election promises, including reversing Labor's full commitment given innumerable times to the Stage 3 tax cuts, adverse changes to superannuation “nest-egg” entitlements purely to raise taxation, the much heralded election commitment to lower electricity prices when prices were sky-rocketing, reversing many labour market reforms to reinstate union influence and the near-abolition of casual work and the gig economy, pursuing anti-productivity agendas, the absence of any coherent water management plan for the Murray-Darling Basin. Labor was also criticised for either poor policy development or mismanagement in a range of portfolios, including inertia in defence, confused energy policy, inadequate aged care management and a pharmacists revolt over scripts, a poor inquiry into the COVID responses and lockdowns, uncontrolled migration, including unauthorised entries, and the reckless proliferation in international student visas, the lack of social housing, the massive blowouts of entitlements under the National Disability Insurance Scheme including now mental health sufferers, neglecting regional development by slashing 50 projects amounting to $120 billion, and not allowing more flights from Qatar Airlines to compete with Qantas. This litany of failings slowly began to be reflected in opinion poll support for the government with slight shifts towards the Coalition opposition. Polls in February 2023 had the government on 55 per cent support in two party preferred terms to 46 per cent for the Coalition, and this was largely held until September, but then support declined to 50–50 per cent by November 2023 as the government appeared to lose direction (Newspoll 2023).

Albanese's determination to conduct a referendum to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution and provide for an advisory “Voice” (and perhaps many sub-voices) not only to parliament but to executive government and all federal public institutions, rashly proved a step too far and a setback for reconciliation. Given economic pressures, there was also ample criticism over the political attention to this issue and the costs involved in conducting the referendum. Estimates put the total cost in excess of $1 billion when both the electoral administration and advertising costs were added to the sponsorships and campaign costs of the Yes and No camps. While there was a lot of goodwill towards some form of recognition and reconciliation, there was also as the ABC argued a “hesitant electorate.”

As the polling for the Yes case declined and the No case increased, a number of Indigenous spokespeople questioned why non-Indigenous people were entitled to vote in the referendum at all — completely ignorant of the entrenched constitutional provisions of a double-majority of eligible voters and states for it to be legitimate. One pollster conducting regular polls on the referendum reported that whenever one of the main spokespersons for the Yes case, Professor Marcia Langton, spoke in the media the Yes vote went down by a few percent and the No vote rose.

As polling for the Yes case began to collapse, the Coalition stepped up its opposition to the referendum making it a partisan issue. In political terms it was not clear that many members of the Labor government were as enthusiastic as Albanese, or his Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney and Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus were. Australia slid into the referendum held on 14th October with pockets of enthusiasm among certain elites, business notables, and some Indigenous groups, but with rising opposition and a certain bewilderment among many voters across the country.

The final results of the referendum confirmed that not a single state voted in favour of the proposals, and overall 60.06 per cent electors voted No while 39.94 per cent voted Yes, although interestingly around two million electors chose not to vote despite its ostensible compulsion (15,895,231 cast a vote — with 155,545 informal — from a total enrolment of 17,671,784, a turnout of 89.95 per cent). Queensland had the highest percentage No vote with 68.21 against, followed by SA with 64.17, then WA with 63.27, NT with 60.30, NSW with 58.96, and Victoria with 54.15. Only in the ACT did a majority say Yes with 61.29 per cent approval versus 33.71 per cent against. Nationally 33 electorates voted Yes, and 118 voted No, while three-quarters of Labor's own electorates also voted No. The referendum result was immediately seen as setting back reconciliation and stalling the government's Indigenous policy agenda, while Indigenous leaders called for a “week of silence.”

Albanese also did not learn from history about the difficulties of achieving a successful referendum requiring a double majority (of popular votes and at least four states). It should also be remembered that the 2023 referendum on Indigenous recognition in the Constitution was the second such proposal similarly to fail badly, with PM John Howard's attempt to insert a preamble recognising Indigenous ancestry in the Constitution in 1999 failing to win over any state and suffering a 61.06 per cent national vote against such an inclusion, an almost identical outcome to the Albanese attempt.

The ABC's Particia Karvelas reported feedback from regional Australian forums in the lead-up to the vote suggested many in the audiences were hostile to the proposals, with many arguing that Indigenous peoples already had it so good, would want more if the vote succeeded, and “got free cars and houses” which other Australians did not. Such views were reflected in the stronger No vote in remote, regional and outer-metropolitan areas than in the “woke” inner city electorates. Some of the most working-class Labor electorates recorded the highest No vote (Hunter, Blair, Paterson, Dobell, Spence, and Blaxland).

After the referendum defeat attention gradually returned to issues of Indigenous disadvantage and sexual abuse in communities.

Due to the resignation of former Employment minister Stuart Robert, the by-election in the safe Queensland LNP seat of Fadden with a healthy margin of 10.2 per cent was held in July, with mounting concerns over another Coalition loss after the Aston by-election loss in 2023. The LNP's Cameron Caldwell managed to increase his margin to 13.35 per cent over the perennial Labor candidate Letitia Del Fabbro. Then in September, NSW Liberal Senator Marise Payne, a senior cabinet minister from 2013 to 2022, resigned from parliament. She had held portfolios of Human Services, Defence and Foreign Affairs, and then was immediately replaced by the former lower house member Dave Sharma.

Three women Labor members of parliament died while in office in only two years: Senator Kimberley Kitching (see last federal chronicle), Peta Murphy MP in December and then Senator Linda White in February 2024. Significantly, Murphy working through a parliamentary committee had almost single-handedly championed a proposal for extensive restrictions on gambling advertising covering many mediums and venues, which was then largely ignored. The resulting by-election in the seat of Dunkley was retained by Labor after considerable policy recalibration by Albanese over the summer.

In December Senator Pat Dodson announced he would also be resigning from parliament due to ill-health. Much had been expected of the Indigenous leader, hand-picked in 2016 by opposition leader Bill Shorten, but the Senator had not risen to any great office in Labor during his eight years in parliament although was nominated as a “special envoy for reconciliation” by Albanese despite earlier being promised the job of Minister for Indigenous Australians. It was announced he would be replaced by Labor barrister Varun Ghosh.

Although pledges of support were made to Ukraine in its enduring resistance to the Russian invasion, now well over a year in duration, comparatively little actual logistical support was offered. A small number of armoured Bushmaster vehicles produced in Australia had already been sent and in July a further contingent of 30 were approved for transport to Kiev, taking our total commitment to around $1 billion on the government's costings. But the government refused to send other equipment such as Hawkei helicopters or any fighter aircraft, and when the ageing Taipan helicopters were to be decommissioned it refused to agree to send 45 airframes to Ukraine, insisting they be dismantled and buried here in the ground! A confounding decision, much to the annoyance of the Ukrainians, with the pretence that the helicopters could prove unreliable and non-serviceable. The defence department was certainly not anxious to hand over any major equipment mainly because it was informed there would be no compensation given from budgetary funds for any items given, but also we had little that was often operational. Notably, in last December the government had similarly refused a US request to attacks. The government was much happier in March when it announced that 123 Boxer Heavy Weapon Carriers produced here would be sold to Germany.

In July it was confirmed that Philip Lowe would not be extended as the Governor of the RBA and instead Michele Bullock the standing deputy would replace him, the first woman to hold the post. She joined Danielle Wood head of the Productivity Commission since November as one of the senior economic advisers to government. Former Infrastructure secretary Mike Mrdak was appointed as director of NBN in October. Kathryn Campbell the former departmental head of Human Services, Social Services and then Foreign Affairs was suspended and eventually sacked by the “Secretaries Board” in July over the Robodebt scandal after the Royal Commission report found her negligent and “failed to act.” The APS Secretaries Board took the decision to sever Ms Campbell as a collective leadership decision to underscore the importance of integrity and the public service coded of conduct. The Robodebt saga raised the issue of what do senior public servants do if they believe the minister of government were acting illegally or improperly (shades of the Canadian Gomery Commission's investigations).

The High Court threw a spanner in the works when it decided in late November that “indefinite detention” of illegal migrants hoping to live in Australia and refusing to go back to their countries or other third-party countries was suddenly unconstitutional! Effectively the court said that it was illegal for the government to imprison illegal migrants and economic transients indefinitely, and that only the judiciary could issue the punitive decision not the minister or department. The decision was based on an imputed but contentions notion of a “separation of powers” between the executive and judiciary (of which there is no mention in the Constitution, unlike the USA). Many of the 140 “illegal” detainees were detained because they were dangerous criminals who had committed murder, rape, bashing and paedophilia (and one was a notorious Malaysian “hit-man”), but this did not seem to worry the High Court judges. The two principal ministers involved, Clare O'Neil (Home Affairs) and Andrew Giles (Immigration), were caught like stunned deer in the headlights, unable to explain government policy, looking inept and incapable of responding to the decision, even though they had been given some warning by members of the judiciary. Giles proved unable to provide any substantive answers to questions in parliament except to restate that the government had to accept the court's decision. Accordingly, 140 detainees were released into the community, to much community outrage and concern among the public anxious these people would reoffend in their neighbourhoods (but most likely not where the judiciary elect to reside).

While the maverick MP Bob Katter was caused to ask Albanese: “who runs this place, you or the High Court?,” the government struggled to get legislation into parliament to help clarify its powers over immigration deportation and restricting visas from countries that would not take back supposed asylum-seekers who were to be sent back (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Myanmar, Afghanistan). Unfortunately for the government the introduced bill was passed only by the lower house before the Xmas break, and was delayed in the Senate which sent the bill to a review committee. A number of Labor back-benchers soon criticised the Labor bill on the grounds it contravened the human rights of deportees!

Towards the year's end opinion polls dived for the Labor government. The referendum failure and the High Court's release of serious criminals, plus cost of living pressures, caused Labor's primary vote to drop to 31 per cent compared to the Coalition on 38 per cent. A total of 53 per cent were dissatisfied with Albanese's performance even more than Dutton's on 50 per cent disapproval. While the Murdoch press increasingly became hostile to Albanese, The Australian declared in a major review of the government's performance that the government had “fallen into a state of inertia.” Moreover, a former Labor insider claimed at the same time that the new government was in a mid-term malaise, opining: “did anyone think that the wheels could come off so fast” (The Australian 17 November 2023, and Weekend Australian 18–19 November). He firmly accused Albanese of a lack of preparation for office while in opposition and a lack of responsiveness while in government. Another Labor MP told the Australian Financial Review “the wheels are not falling off, but things are sticky” (17th November 2023). C'est la Vie!

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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
59
期刊介绍: The Australian Journal of Politics and History presents papers addressing significant problems of general interest to those working in the fields of history, political studies and international affairs. Articles explore the politics and history of Australia and modern Europe, intellectual history, political history, and the history of political thought. The journal also publishes articles in the fields of international politics, Australian foreign policy, and Australia relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
期刊最新文献
Issue Information Issue Information Western Australia July to December 2023 Commonwealth of Australia July to December 2023 Issues in Australian Foreign Policy July to December 2023
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