1979-2021 年北冰洋航线风浪高度和无冰期持续时间分析

S.A. Myslenkov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究涉及对俄罗斯北部海路沿线北极海域风浪的分析。风浪参数数据根据 WAVEWATCH III 频谱模型获得,1979 年至 2021 年期间的风力和海冰浓度数据来自 NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 再分析。以约 20 千米的空间分辨率估算了北海航线(NSR)沿线两个变体的平均、最大和第 95 百分位数显著波浪高度的分布以及无冰期的持续时间。此外,还估算了所考虑参数的 43 年趋势。在东西伯利亚海的北冰洋航线上,无冰期的最短持续时间约为 30 天。南线的最短无冰期从未少于 65 天。无冰期的年平均波高在巴伦支海超过 2 米,在楚科奇海超过 1.6 米,在航线的其余部分不超过 1.2 米。南线的最大波高和第 95 百分位数明显较低。北冰洋沿线无冰期持续时间的趋势均为正值,每 10 年为 15-20 天。在新谢姆利亚群岛以北观测到的最大趋势值为每 10 年 52 天。无冰期的最小趋势值出现在维尔基茨基海峡地区和喀拉海东北部。无冰期波高的最大趋势出现在东西伯利亚海的东部,在北西伯利亚大铁路的北线,波高在 10 年内达到 0.33 米,在南线,波高在 10 年内达到 0.12 米。
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Analysis of the wind waves height and the duration of ice-free period along the Northern Sea Route from 1979 to 2021
The study deals with the analysis of wind waves in the Arctic seas of Russia along the Northern Sea Route. Data on wind wave parameters were obtained on the basis of the WAVEWATCH III spectral model, and data on wind and sea ice concentration for the period from 1979 to 2021 – from the NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalysis. Estimates of the distribution of the average, maximum and 95th percentile height of significant waves and the duration of ice-free period along two variants of the route along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) have been obtained with a space resolution of ~20 km. Trends of the parameters under consideration were also estimated for 43 years. The minimum duration of ice-free period is about 30 days on the northern route of the NSR in the East Siberian Sea. The minimum duration on the southern route is never less than 65 days. The average annual wave height during the ice-free period exceeds 2 m in the Barents Sea, 1,6 m in the Chukchi Sea and is no more than 1,2 m for the rest of the route. The maximum wave height and the 95th percentile of wave height are significantly lower on the southern route. The trends for the duration of the ice-free period are positive all along the NSR, and amount to 15–20 days per 10 years. The maximum trend values of 52 days per 10 years are observed north of the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago. The minimum values of trends for the ice-free period are observed in the area of the Vilkitsky Strait and in the northeastern part of the Kara Sea. The maximum trend for wave height during the ice-free period is observed in the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea reaching 0,33 m in 10 years on the northern and 0,12 m in 10 years on the southern route of the NSR.
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