实现美国可持续财政状况的联邦预算和医疗保健政策措施

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Policy Modeling Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.012
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国的医疗开支大幅增长,是联邦赤字不断增加的主要原因。官方预测认为,经济低速增长和人口老龄化将导致这种情况小幅持续,但他们忽略了劳动力短缺对低效率部门的特殊影响,从而提高了医疗成本。针对这一缺陷,我们建立了一个统一的宏观经济模型,其中的关键变量--尤其是医疗保健部门和利率--由内生决定。我们发现,美国当前的财政轨迹是不可持续的,未来的赤字和债务远远超出历史标准和官方预测。以减少医疗支出、增加资本和财政紧缩为重点的政策措施可以带来可持续的财政状况,并提高生活水平,否则生活水平将会下降。
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Policy steps in the federal budget and health care to achieve sustainable fiscal conditions in the U.S.

Health care spending has grown significantly in the US, and is a major cause of rising federal deficits. Official projections find that low economic growth and aging of the population will lead to a modest continuation of this situation, but they miss that labor shortages have a particular impact on inefficient sectors, raising the cost of health care. We develop a unified macroeconomic model to address this shortcoming, with key variables—particularly in the health care sector and interest rates—endogenously determined. We find that the current fiscal trajectory of the US is unsustainable, with future deficits and debt well beyond both historical norms and official projections. Policy steps, focusing on reducing health care spending, increasing capital, and fiscal retrenchment, can lead to sustainable fiscal conditions and raise living standards that will otherwise fall.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.20
自引率
11.40%
发文量
76
期刊介绍: The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.
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