Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

英文中文

Government policies in managing food price anomalies: Evidence from Iran 政府管理粮价异常的政策：来自伊朗的证据

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.006

Mehdi Shabanzadeh-Khoshrody , Saeed Shahabi Ahangarkolaee , Ebrahim Javdan , Reza Esfanjari Kenari

Food price volatility presents a persistent policy challenge for resource-dependent economies, particularly during periods of global shocks and country-specific external pressures, such as international sanctions in the case of Iran. This study examines the effectiveness of two major policy instruments -exchange rate management and monetary policy- in mitigating food price anomalies in Iran. Using seasonal data from 2004 to 2022 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research identifies the key drivers of food price anomalies and evaluates the relative and joint impact of exchange rate depreciation and money supply growth. Results show that the most severe anomalies coincided with global crises (2007–2008, 2011, 2020, 2022) and intensified sanctions (2011–2012, 2018). Exchange rate depreciation and expansionary monetary policy significantly increased anomalies in both the short and long run, while higher import volumes helped dampen price fluctuations. Notably, monetary policy exhibited the strongest and most persistent effect. The error correction mechanism indicates a slow adjustment process, suggesting long-lasting impacts of shocks. The study recommends greater coordination between monetary and exchange rate policies, along with fiscal discipline, exchange rate unification, subsidy reforms, inflation-aligned interest rates, and strengthened strategic reserves to enhance resilience in Iran’s food market.

粮食价格波动对资源依赖型经济体构成了持续的政策挑战，特别是在全球冲击和国家特定外部压力时期，如伊朗的国际制裁。本研究考察了两种主要政策工具——汇率管理和货币政策——在缓解伊朗粮食价格异常方面的有效性。利用2004年至2022年的季节性数据，采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型，研究确定了食品价格异常的关键驱动因素，并评估了汇率贬值和货币供应增长的相对影响和联合影响。结果表明，最严重的异常与全球危机（2007-2008年、2011年、2020年和2022年）和制裁加剧（2011 - 2012年和2018年）同时发生。汇率贬值和扩张性货币政策大大增加了短期和长期的不正常现象，而进口增加有助于抑制价格波动。值得注意的是，货币政策表现出最强烈和最持久的影响。误差修正机制显示出一个缓慢的调整过程，表明冲击的影响是持久的。该研究建议加强货币和汇率政策之间的协调，以及财政纪律、汇率统一、补贴改革、与通货膨胀挂钩的利率和加强战略储备，以增强伊朗粮食市场的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Ruble resilience or euro dominance? The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the euro-ruble exchange rate 卢布的弹性还是欧元的主导地位？俄乌战争对欧元-卢布汇率的影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.020

Sagiru Mati , Goran Yousif Ismael , Raad Abdelhalim Ibrahim Alsakarneh , Nazifi Aliyu

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war changes the dynamics of macroeconomic variables, including the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. While existing studies model the immediate impact of the war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate, a comprehensive understanding of the war’s steady-state effect on the Euro-Ruble parity remains crucial. To this end, the current study investigates the immediate and steady-state impacts of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Euro-Ruble exchange rate using an intervention time series approach. The study finds that the immediate impact of the war resulted in a 21 % reduction in the daily growth rate of the Euro-Ruble exchange rate. However, the steady-state effect translates to a 26 % reduction in growth. Our findings have implications for trade, inflation, and investment across both European and Russian economies.

正在进行的俄乌战争改变了宏观经济变量的动态，包括欧元-卢布汇率。虽然现有的研究模拟了战争对欧元-卢布汇率的直接影响，但全面了解战争对欧元-卢布平价的稳态影响仍然至关重要。为此，本研究采用干预时间序列方法调查了俄乌战争对欧元-卢布汇率的直接和稳态影响。研究发现，战争的直接影响导致欧元-卢布汇率的日增长率下降了21%。然而，稳态效应转化为26%的增长减少。我们的研究结果对欧洲和俄罗斯经济的贸易、通货膨胀和投资都有影响。

引用次数: 0

Environmental innovation policy and SDGs in Europe: Interplay of patents, policy and R&D expenditures 欧洲的环境创新政策和可持续发展目标：专利、政策和研发支出的相互作用

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.002

Volkan Göçoğlu , Serkan Göksu

The European Union's (EU) environmental innovation policy mainly adopts an incremental approach, with a superficial emphasis on sustainable development, lacking a specific focus on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although the SDGs present a window of opportunity for a broader approach to innovative solutions to global environmental problems, their neglect also emerges in scholarly research on environmental innovation. Aiming to fill this gap, this study presents a novel and holistic incremental approach to the EU's environmental innovation policy by adopting the SDGs as the key framework and forming a comprehensive empirical model on 14 member countries with prominent variables consistent with the EU's official policies. The results suggest that governments should increase environmental policy stringency (EPS) and policymakers should foster research and development (R&D) expenditures and bolster environmental innovation to align with existing initiatives, particularly within SDGs 7, 9, and 13. Finally, indicators 9.4.1 for SDG9 and 13.2.1 for SDG13 can serve as essential reference points in strengthening the legal framework for EPS.

欧盟（EU）的环境创新政策主要采用渐进式方法，表面上强调可持续发展，缺乏对可持续发展目标（SDGs）的具体关注。尽管可持续发展目标为更广泛地寻求全球环境问题的创新解决方案提供了机会之窗，但在环境创新的学术研究中也出现了对可持续发展目标的忽视。为了填补这一空白，本研究以可持续发展目标为关键框架，构建了一个基于14个成员国的综合实证模型，突出变量与欧盟官方政策一致，提出了一种全新的整体增量方法来研究欧盟环境创新政策。结果表明，政府应加强环境政策的严格性（EPS），政策制定者应促进研究与开发（R&；D）支出，并支持环境创新，以配合现有举措，特别是在可持续发展目标7、9和13中。最后，SDG9的指标9.4.1和SDG13的指标13.2.1可以作为加强EPS法律框架的重要参考点。

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引用次数: 0

Does employment and autonomy influence safe menstrual hygiene in India? 就业和自主是否影响印度的安全经期卫生？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.005

Anviksha Drall , Sumirtha Gandhi

Menstrual Hygiene is often considered vital for formulating public health policies in developing economies like India, because the overall wellbeing and social development of women could remarkably be compromised due to poor menstrual hygiene. This motivates us to analyse vital factors determining menstrual hygiene with an intent to suggest health policies related to menstrual hygiene.

The study finds that unemployed women practice better menstrual hygiene compared to the employed ones. Furthermore, the role of employment is found to be significant only if a woman possess autonomy, reflecting the complementarity between impact of autonomy and employment. Additionally, given that a woman is employed, those working in non-agriculture sector are found to demonstrate safe hygiene practices.

The study finds that women working in agriculture have poor menstrual hygiene compared to both unemployed women and those working in non-agricultural sector. This suggests better sanitation infrastructure at farms. Also, if sanitation facilities are made available to women their impact on menstrual hygiene depends on their autonomy status. Thus, policies pertaining to enhance sanitation facilities must accord with autonomy status of women.

在印度等发展中经济体，经期卫生通常被认为对制定公共卫生政策至关重要，因为经期卫生状况不佳可能严重影响妇女的整体福祉和社会发展。这促使我们分析决定经期卫生的关键因素，目的是建议与经期卫生有关的卫生政策。研究发现，与在职女性相比，失业女性的月经卫生习惯更好。此外，就业的作用只有在妇女拥有自主权的情况下才有意义，这反映了自主权和就业的影响之间的互补性。此外，考虑到一名妇女受雇，在非农业部门工作的妇女被发现具有安全的卫生习惯。该研究发现，与失业妇女和非农业部门的妇女相比，从事农业工作的妇女的月经卫生状况较差。这意味着要改善农场的卫生基础设施。此外，如果向妇女提供卫生设施，她们对经期卫生的影响取决于她们的自主地位。因此，有关加强卫生设施的政策必须符合妇女的自主地位。

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引用次数: 0

Which countries performed better in the COVID-19 pandemic? Lessons from and for governments 哪些国家在COVID-19大流行中表现更好？来自政府的教训和对政府的启示

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.008

Hiroaki Masuhara , Kei Hosoya

This study reviewed the COVID-19-related performance of OECD countries as well as Singapore and Taiwan in terms of deaths, vaccination status, production, consumption, and mobility from the early part of the pandemic to the end of 2022. We observe that permanent control of deaths was difficult to achieve, and even when deaths were reduced temporarily, many countries experienced a decline in consumption and/or production. Nevertheless, Norway in particular is a successful example in terms of balancing deaths, production, and consumption. Finally, we discuss policy implications based on economic preferences.

我们注意到，很难实现对死亡的永久控制，即使死亡人数暂时减少，许多国家的消费和（或）生产也出现下降。然而，在平衡死亡、生产和消费方面，挪威尤其是个成功的例子。最后，我们讨论了基于经济偏好的政策影响。

引用次数: 0

Producer heterogeneity, insurance decisions and economic impacts of crop insurance 生产者异质性、保险决策与作物保险的经济影响

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.10.001

Charalampos Mavroutsikos , Konstantinos Giannakas , Cory Walters

This paper introduces the empirically relevant heterogeneity/differences in producer attitudes towards risk into the analysis of the economic impacts of crop insurance. Analytical results show that individual producer risk attitudes matter. Specifically, our study shows that the producer insurance decisions, the market shares of the different insurance options, and the welfare impacts of crop insurance are very much dependent on the producer aversion to risk as well as the risk exposure faced by producers, the reduction in this risk exposure offered by crop insurance, and the crop insurance premiums. Understanding the producer response to different crop insurance options is important for the formulation of policies that align with diverse risk profiles. Our analysis indicates that maintaining the status quo will further exacerbate regional differences in the economic impacts of crop insurance. Our analysis suggests that crop insurance policy design should consider a customized approach through a variable premium subsidy scheme to effectively address regional disparities in risk exposure and insurance coverage.

本文将生产者对风险态度的实证相关异质性/差异引入作物保险经济影响的分析中。分析结果表明，个体生产者的风险态度很重要。具体而言，我们的研究表明，生产者的保险决策、不同保险选择的市场份额以及作物保险对福利的影响在很大程度上取决于生产者对风险的厌恶程度以及生产者面临的风险敞口、作物保险提供的风险敞口的减少以及作物保险的保费。了解生产者对不同作物保险选择的反应对于制定与不同风险状况相一致的政策非常重要。分析表明，维持现状将进一步加剧作物保险经济影响的区域差异。我们的分析表明，作物保险政策设计应考虑通过可变保费补贴计划来定制方法，以有效解决风险暴露和保险范围的区域差异。

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引用次数: 0

Escaping the inactivity trap? The work incentive of the Spanish minimum income 摆脱不活动的陷阱？西班牙最低收入的工作激励

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.09.010

Hugo Cruces , Adrián Hernández , Edlira Narazani

The Spanish Minimum Income scheme, introduced in 2020, offers beneficiaries a unique national guaranteed income as a last-resort benefit. However, the scheme’s design featured a lack of work incentives for low earners, potentially leading to inactivity traps. To address this flaw the Spanish government introduced an earnings disregard in 2022, enabling beneficiaries to keep all or part of the benefit when their earnings increase up to a certain limit. This paper provides an ex ante assessment of this reform, looking into its expected fiscal, distributional and labour market effects using the tax–benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD, and the behavioural labour supply model EUROLAB. Our results show that the reform has the potential to incentivise work for very low earners, particularly lone parents, mainly by promoting part-time employment. The reform and its subsequent employment effects are also expected to slightly reduce inequality and poverty. While this is a step in the right direction, we discuss some avenues for improvement.

西班牙最低收入计划于2020年推出，为受益人提供独特的国家保障收入，作为最后的福利。然而，该计划的设计特点是缺乏对低收入者的工作激励，可能导致不活动陷阱。为了解决这一缺陷，西班牙政府在2022年引入了收入无视，使受益人在收入增加到一定限度时可以保留全部或部分福利。本文对这一改革进行了事前评估，使用税收-福利微观模拟模型EUROMOD和行为劳动力供给模型EUROLAB来研究其预期的财政、分配和劳动力市场影响。我们的研究结果表明，这项改革主要通过促进兼职工作，有可能激励低收入者，特别是单身父母工作。这项改革及其对就业的影响也有望略微减少不平等和贫困。虽然这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，但我们讨论了一些改进的途径。

引用次数: 0

Economic growth and environmental objectives: An evaluation based on 2021–2027 cohesion policy regional data 经济增长与环境目标：基于2021-2027年凝聚力政策区域数据的评价

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.04.003

Tryfonas Christou , Abián García-Rodríguez , Tillmann Heidelk , Nicholas-Joseph Lazarou , Philippe Monfort , Simone Salotti

The 2021–2027 cohesion policy programme is required to deliver on the European Union’s green transition priority facilitating reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis shows that green investments under this policy are expected to have a positive impact on GDP and employment, particularly in less developed regions. These investments can help reduce the costs of the transition, and also have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, cohesion policy alone cannot drive the transition and additional instruments and actions should be put in place to support all European territories.

2021-2027年凝聚力政策计划需要实现欧盟的绿色转型优先事项，促进到2050年实现净零排放。我们的分析表明，该政策下的绿色投资有望对GDP和就业产生积极影响，尤其是在欠发达地区。这些投资有助于降低转型成本，也有可能减少温室气体排放。然而，仅靠凝聚力政策无法推动转型，还应制定额外的工具和行动来支持所有欧洲领土。

引用次数: 0

Sacred and stray: Policy analysis for managing cattle population 神圣与流浪：牛群管理的政策分析

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.023

Ayushi Singh , Samir K. Srivastava

The challenge of managing stray animal populations, which significantly impacts agricultural economies worldwide, has not been fully addressed in the extant literature. This paper examines the complexities of stray cattle management, with a particular focus on India, where laws prohibiting cattle slaughter contribute to the issue of unproductive cattle. Our findings indicate that in the short term, government funding should be directed towards strategies such as sexed-semen usage and sterilization, while sheltering proves effective in the long term. The policy of adoption shows effectiveness only when incentives are increased. Using System Dynamics Modeling, this study analyzes the impact of key policy interventions on the stray cattle population and proposes an optimal policy mix by evaluating the effectiveness of different interventions. The results highlight the necessity of strategic budget allocation and integrating diverse policies to control and manage the stray cattle population effectively.

管理流浪动物种群的挑战对全球农业经济产生了重大影响，但在现有文献中尚未得到充分解决。本文考察了流浪牛管理的复杂性，特别关注印度，那里禁止屠宰牛的法律导致了非生产性牛的问题。我们的研究结果表明，在短期内，政府资金应该用于诸如性精液使用和绝育等策略，而庇护被证明是长期有效的。只有在奖励增加的情况下，收养政策才显示出效力。利用系统动力学模型分析了重点政策干预对流浪牛种群的影响，并通过评估不同干预措施的有效性，提出了最优政策组合。研究结果表明，要有效控制和管理流浪牛种群，需要进行战略预算分配和多种政策的整合。

引用次数: 0

Basic income reduces poverty and inequality: Are there costs in terms of efficiency? 基本收入减少了贫困和不平等：在效率方面有成本吗？

IF 3.1 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.06.002

Francisco Lara , Xisco Oliver

Growing inequality since the eighties in most developed countries, together with the effects of recent economic crises, which affected more severely to lower incomes, pushed into the political agenda the need to improve the redistribution of the tax-benefit system. Systematically, one proposal to fight poverty and inequality is the implementation of a basic income. Detractors of this proposal argue that the cost of this measure is too high and criticise the potential disincentives to work and efficiency reduction. However, most studies simulating this kind of policy ignore the effects on employment and outcome. This paper simulates a bunch of reforms that replace the personal income tax with a basic income flat tax scheme. The analysis uses a behavioural microsimulation model of the Spanish tax-benefit system, which includes labour supply reactions. The results show that basic income - flat tax reform is feasible (in the sense that tax collection is kept constant in all simulations) and reduces poverty and inequality. However, the cost in terms of efficiency, measured by gross income and labour supply, is not negligible. This reduction in efficiency reduces social welfare and offsets the improvement of the social welfare achieved by the decrease of inequality.

自八十年代以来，大多数发达国家的不平等现象日益严重，加上最近的经济危机对低收入者的影响更为严重，因此将改善税收-福利制度再分配的必要性提上了政治议程。从系统上讲，与贫困和不平等作斗争的一个建议是实施基本收入。该提案的批评者认为，该措施的成本太高，并批评潜在的工作积极性和效率降低。然而，大多数模拟这种政策的研究忽略了对就业和结果的影响。本文模拟了一系列以基本收入单一税方案取代个人所得税的改革。该分析使用了西班牙税收福利体系的行为微观模拟模型，其中包括劳动力供应反应。结果表明，基本收入单一税改革是可行的（在所有模拟中税收保持不变的意义上），并减少了贫困和不平等。然而，以总收入和劳动力供给衡量的效率成本不可忽略。这种效率的降低降低了社会福利，抵消了不平等减少所带来的社会福利的改善。

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