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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Ending poverty and accelerating growth in South Africa, through the expansion of its social grant system 南非通过扩大社会补助金制度消除贫困和加快增长
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.003
Ismael Fofana , Ramos E. Mabugu , Alhassane Camara , Babatunde Abidoye
South Africa has one of the most extensive social assistance systems among developing countries; however, the proportion of the population below the national poverty lines remains relatively high. Thus, we develop a micro-macro framework to assess the economic growth implications of expanding South Africa’s social grant system under alternative conditions. We find that conditional poverty-alleviation social transfers foster growth while unconditional redistribution towards lower-income earners can hinder economic growth. From policy perspectives, we show that the transfer of purchasing power to extremely poor beneficiaries and their economic participation are required for poverty-alleviation social transfers to have positive economic outcomes.
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引用次数: 0
Racial diversity, child stunting and underweight: Policies design and promotion in South Africa 种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足:南非的政策设计与推广
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.009
Isaac Koomson , Clifford Afoakwah , Martinson Ankrah Twumasi
We examine the effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight in post-apartheid South Africa, which has a strong history of systemic racial segregation. Using five waves of longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS), and employing instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods, we find that racial diversity significantly reduces child stunting and underweight. This result is consistent across alternative measures of racial diversity, child stunting and underweight, and is also robust to different endogeneity-correction methods. The negative effect of racial diversity on child stunting and underweight is more pronounced among children under 5 years of age. Further analyses highlight increased employment opportunities, food expenditure per capita and financial inclusion as important channels through which racial diversity decreases stunting and underweight. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.
在种族隔离历史悠久的种族隔离后南非,我们研究了种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的影响。利用国家收入动态调查(NIDS)的五波纵向数据,并采用工具变量和倾向得分匹配方法,我们发现种族多样性显著降低了儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的程度。这一结果与其他衡量种族多样性、儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的方法是一致的,而且在采用不同的内生性校正方法时也是稳健的。种族多样性对儿童发育迟缓和体重不足的负面影响在 5 岁以下儿童中更为明显。进一步的分析强调,增加就业机会、人均食品支出和金融包容性是种族多样性减少发育迟缓和体重不足的重要渠道。我们讨论了这些发现的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability 财政政策和公共债务:政府投资对促进可持续性最为有效
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.002
Giovanna Ciaffi , Matteo Deleidi , Lorenzo Di Domenico
This paper aims to quantify the effects of government expenditure and its components, i.e. government consumption and investment, on output and public debt sustainability. The Local Projections approach is applied to a dataset of 14 OECD countries considered for the 1981–2017 period. Fiscal policy shocks have been identified using the Blanchard and Perotti strategy and the narrative approach based on fiscal consolidation episodes. Multipliers of total government spending are above the unit and government investment multipliers are higher than consumption ones. Although all fiscal policy shocks reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, government investment is the most effective tool for promoting public debt sustainability.
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引用次数: 0
Ghana and the IMF: Policy shifts, economic bailouts and macroeconomic outcomes 加纳与国际货币基金组织:政策转变、经济救助和宏观经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.006
Suale Karimu
Ghana has a long history of engagement with the IMF. Successive governments of Ghana have sought economic bailouts from the IMF due to worsening domestic macroeconomic stability. This paper examines Ghana’s historical engagement with the IMF and the associated macroeconomic outcomes, and offers lessons for economic restructuring and growth beyond the bailouts. The paper explores the common patterns of the key macroeconomic variables and possible latent causal effects. The results reveal intermittent and short-term effects of the IMF programs. The bailouts often have a short-term impact on macroeconomic stability and growth, but the effects are unsustainable in the long term, especially after the IMF program ends.
加纳与国际货币基金组织的合作由来已久。由于国内宏观经济稳定性不断恶化,加纳历届政府都曾寻求国际货币基金组织的经济救助。本文探讨了加纳与国际货币基金组织合作的历史以及相关的宏观经济结果,并为救助之后的经济结构调整和增长提供了借鉴。本文探讨了关键宏观经济变量的共同模式以及可能的潜在因果效应。结果显示,国际货币基金组织的项目具有间歇性和短期效应。救助往往会对宏观经济稳定和增长产生短期影响,但从长期来看,尤其是在国际货币基金组织计划结束后,这种影响是不可持续的。
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引用次数: 0
Does local non-farm income moderate the intensity of climate change induced migration in India? 印度当地的非农收入是否减缓了气候变化引起的移民强度?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.005
Gauri Sreekumar , Sabuj Kumar Mandal , Anviksha Drall
While the impact of climate change on migration is well documented in the literature, very little is known about the moderating impact of local non-farm income on climate change induced migration. To fill this gap in the literature, the paper combines real time weather data provided by Indian Meteorological Department with a very rich household data on Indian states belonging to the eastern and semi-arid tropic regions collected by ICRISAT to investigate whether farmers always resort to migration or take it up as a second-best option only after they fail to diversify locally on the face of climate change induced crop loss. Using recursive econometric model, it is observed that households first try to diversify their income by engaging in local non-farm activities and availability of local non-farm income further moderates the effect of climate change induced yield loss on migration. Higher rural out migration may adversely impact the agricultural sector and affect sustainable urbanization, Also, decision to migrate is often challenging as it necessitates leaving behind social and community networks. Therefore, our findings offer valuable insights and discusses important policy recommendations towards improving the access to local non-farm activities.
虽然现有文献充分记录了气候变化对迁移的影响,但对当地非农业收入的调节作用却知之甚少。在此背景下,本文将印度气象局提供的实时天气数据与国际热带作物研究中心收集的印度东部和半干旱热带地区各邦非常丰富的家庭数据相结合,研究农民是否总是诉诸迁移,还是只有在本地多样化失败后才退而求其次选择迁移。利用递归计量经济模型观察发现,农户首先会尝试通过从事当地非农活动来实现收入多样化,而当地非农收入的可获得性进一步缓和了气候变化导致的产量损失对迁移的影响。高水平的移民可能会导致福利损失并影响城市的可持续发展,而移民的决定往往具有挑战性,因为它必须离开社会和社区网络。因此,我们的研究结果提供了宝贵的见解,并讨论了重要的政策建议,以改善当地非农活动的获取途径。
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引用次数: 0
A two-for-one deal: Targeting nominal GDP to create a supply-shock robust inflation target 一举两得:以名义国内生产总值为目标,建立受供应冲击影响的稳健通胀目标
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.014
David Beckworth, Patrick J. Horan
A key tenet of modern central banking says that if inflation expectations are anchored then monetary policy should “look through” the inflationary effects of supply shocks that do not permanently affect potential output. However, the inflation surge of 2021–2022 vividly demonstrated that this standard monetary policy prescription is difficult to implement in practice since it requires a real-time knowledge of what shocks are driving changes in inflation while requiring a credible nominal anchor. This paper argues that a workaround solution to these problems is for central banks to stabilize the growth path of nominal GDP. Doing so allows central banks to look through short-term inflation movements caused by temporary supply shocks while still anchoring medium-run inflation. Therefore, central banks that target nominal GDP also are effectively targeting medium-run inflation. This two-for-one targeting deal not only solves the knowledge problem while keeping inflation anchored but can be implemented via standard Taylor-like rules. This paper shows how to operationalize such a framework for the case of the United States.
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引用次数: 0
The economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms and compensation to the oil palm industry 食用油补贴改革对整个经济的影响以及对油棕榈树产业的补偿
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.05.008
Jing Jing Liu, Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh, Nor Ghani Md Nor
This study analyses the economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms using two simulations: complete subsidy removal and compensation for the oil palm industry. The study focuses on macroeconomic variables, industrial output, and employment. A Computable General Equilibrium model is used for analysis. The study found that complete subsidy removal leads to negative impacts on the macroeconomy, causing a slight decrease in economic growth. It also results in negative impacts on industrial output and employment. On the other hand, reallocating the revenue to the oil palm industry investment could mitigate these adverse effects, and further leads to an increase in economic growth. The reallocation improves the output of the oil palm industry and reduces its labour demand. The impacts on other industries' output and employment vary. Removing cooking oil subsidy can be a viable option because of its marginal impacts. It's also recommended to compensate the oil palm industry, especially independent smallholders.
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引用次数: 0
European VAT collection under the stress: Best to use few reduced rates 欧洲增值税征收面临压力:最好使用少数降低的税率
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.007
Alžběta Dytrychová, Hana Zídková, Markéta Arltová
The article analyses the effectiveness of the VAT system in European countries. Higher values of the effective VAT rate reduce the Policy gap but increase the Compliance gap. A higher effective VAT rate consisting of a relatively low standard rate and few reduced rates improves overall efficiency by reducing the Policy Gap more than increasing the Compliance Gap. Our recommendation is to use as few reduced rates as possible. As for the effect of the standard rate itself, we have found that it does not increase tax evasion in the new Member States, unlike the number of VAT rates.
文章分析了欧洲国家增值税制度的有效性。增值税有效税率值越高,政策差距就越小,但合规差距就越大。由相对较低的标准税率和较少的减税税率组成的较高有效增值税税率通过减少政策差距而不是增加合规差距来提高整体效率。我们的建议是使用尽可能少的减税率。至于标准税率本身的影响,我们发现它与增值税税率的数量不同,不会增加新成员国的逃税行为。
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引用次数: 0
Health and growth in China: Greater investment in both soft- and hard-ware are needed 中国的健康与增长:需要加大软硬件投资
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.006
Fu Shuyong, Chen Shuyu, Zhai Jinlong
The purpose is to study the relationship between health investment and economic growth in China. The research design involves empirical research using semi parametric regression models and instrumental variable methods. The results indicate that on the one hand, Chinese health investment can promote economic growth, and its promoting effect on economic growth is non-linear; On the other hand, healthcare investment in the form of human capital is more conducive to promoting regional economic growth than healthcare investment in the form of material capital. The conclusion is that it is necessary to increase health investment in the form of human capital such as the number of health personnel in the eastern region, as well as in the form of material capital such as the number of beds in the central and western regions, in order to better promote regional economic growth.
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引用次数: 0
Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain 西班牙劳动力供应对负所得税的反应
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.02.007
Amadeo Fuenmayor, Rafael Granell, Teresa Savall
One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.
The main result is that a reform as the one described in this work will not make people to abandon the labour market, as usually argued for Basic Income proposals. Under this scheme, on the contrary, we can observe a slightly increase in labour supply. This finding has strong implications for policy. Modifying the tax-benefit system, bringing it closer to a Basic Income scheme, will produce significant improvements in inequality and poverty without a significant change in labour supply.
基本收入提案的一个主要缺点是,它可能会诱使人们减少劳动力供应。本文的主要目的是在负所得税提案的基础上,对西班牙现行的社会保护制度提出一个财政上可行的替代方案,并对社会保护制度进行若干改革。通过使用 EUROMOD,利用劳动力供给结构模型,详细研究了劳动力对这些新条件的行为反应。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Policy Modeling
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