Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

This paper uses a multisector, multiregional general equilibrium input-output model to study the spillovers of global carbon pricing to Germany and Europe. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate the intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE’s sectoral accounts of greenhouse gas emissions to calibrate emission costs. We find that moving from European-only to global carbon prices does neither reduce nor increase the aggregate GDP loss for Germany or Europe as a whole. However, this masks a large degree of heterogeneity across sectors. Sectors that rely on foreign sectors, which are themselves sensitive to the transition, experience large negative spillovers from global carbon pricing. Other sectors, even those with a high emission or trade intensity, tend to benefit from global carbon pricing due to an improvement in international competitiveness.

The recent CAP aims at better targeting beneficiaries and being more selective in its objectives. This has drawn attention to how policies interact with resources used by farms in terms of both economic and environmental costs. Conditional Process Models under Structural Equation Modeling framework may offer statistical indications on these complex interactions. The proposed model, called SMIRNE, is applied to an Italian macro-area at severe risk of land pollution (Pianura Padana) caused by livestock sector. Results show a more substantial support from pillar I policies than those provided by pillar II in addressing a relevant response of policies to the economic and environmental costs of the livestock activities with reference to the use of land.

This study, utilising data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey, probes the diverse effects of bribery on the growth of firms in India. The central question we ask is: what motivates certain firms to engage in bribery while others abstain? Employing the endogenous switching regression model, we aim to uncover the intricacies of this heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that bribery can facilitate growth, yet there is substantial heterogeneity in its impact on firms. The impact varies across firm groups: it positively influences those engaging in bribery, while non-bribers would have experienced adverse effects if they had engaged in bribery. Thus, we observe that firms’ decision to dis(engage) in bribery is influenced by the returns they derive from such a decision. This suggests that firms’ decision to (dis)engage in bribery is a conscious, strategic and rational one, driven by choice rather than coercion.

We use representative data from household surveys in the euro area to describe differences in wages, income, consumption, wealth and liquid assets between households born in their country of residence (“natives”) and those born in other EU and non-EU countries (“immigrants”). The differences in wealth and liquid assets are more substantial than the differences in wages, income and consumption: immigrants earn on average about 30% lower wages than natives and hold roughly 60% less net wealth. For all variables, only a small fraction of differences between natives and immigrants—around 30%—can be explained by differences in demographics (age, gender, marital status, education, occupation, sector of employment). Immigrants are more likely to be liquidity constrained: while we classify 17% of natives as “hand-to-mouth” (they hold liquid assets worth less than two weeks of their income), the corresponding share is 20% for households born in another EU country and 29% for those born outside the EU. Employment rates of immigrants are substantially more sensitive to fluctuations in aggregate employment. We discuss the implications of these findings for economic policies, including monetary, fiscal and pre-distribution policies.

Studying monetary authority response to macroeconomic imbalances using the interest rate as a proxy variable for monetary policy became ineffective after the financial crisis, when central banks exhausted the effective capacity of interest rates by reaching the zero lower bound (ZLB). In an effort to analyse the unconventional response deployed by central banks, we present and estimate a modified reaction function that uses money supply as the operational instrument of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and we verify its utility as an explanatory instrument for the behaviour of the two monetary authorities. By applying our strategy, it is feasible to identify both monetary policy reaction with regard to the economic situation as well as other possible monetary authority concerns regarding governments’ fiscal behaviour and the evolution of asset markets, regardless of the monetary policy applied at any given time.

Health care spending has grown significantly in the US, and is a major cause of rising federal deficits. Official projections find that low economic growth and aging of the population will lead to a modest continuation of this situation, but they miss that labor shortages have a particular impact on inefficient sectors, raising the cost of health care. We develop a unified macroeconomic model to address this shortcoming, with key variables—particularly in the health care sector and interest rates—endogenously determined. We find that the current fiscal trajectory of the US is unsustainable, with future deficits and debt well beyond both historical norms and official projections. Policy steps, focusing on reducing health care spending, increasing capital, and fiscal retrenchment, can lead to sustainable fiscal conditions and raise living standards that will otherwise fall.

We propose a methodology to map structural reforms from granular data to an aggregate model, exploring their transmission mechanisms and their macroeconomic and social impacts. The study focuses on the rich case of the reforms associated with the Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan. We document a significant potential impact on medium- and long-term GDP and find that the labour market and education measures are the main drivers of the impact on GDP and employment. We also examine the distributional impact of the reforms on the functional income distribution.

The gender gap in both employment and labour participation has narrowed markedly in recent decades in Spain. However, this decline seems to have slowed and shows a certain persistence. The solution to this problem can respond to different regulatory or non-regulatory policies. This article studies the evolution of the regulatory framework for the formulation of possible policy recommendations. We identify and quantify for the first time when, at what rate and in what regions, Spanish administrations have adopted regulations aimed at combating discrimination against women, achieving gender equality or approved measures related to the work-life balance. The study is based on a text analysis of 297,402 regulations adopted in the period 1996–2022. The indicators reveal the high degree of heterogeneity in terms of the legislation. Non-discrimination legislation was the most developed and frequent, with 11,228 regional regulations and 2590 central administration regulations adopted. We show that the volume of new regulations, mainly those related to discrimination and work-life balance, has contributed to the reduction in gender gaps. Policy actions by administrations should concentrate on these two modes of intervention. The general analysis of regulation in this area also allows for some recommendations in terms of “better regulation” policies, such as the introduction of gender equality assessments (specific regulatory impact reports).

South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, r, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, g. Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is a disorderly fiscal stop. Reforms to raise growth have not materialised, leaving fiscal consolidation as the second-best solution. Using a medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa, we show that the least cost policy is to impose a time-consistent fiscal policy rule with debt-to-GDP as the fiscal anchor and a pre-announced path for government consumption spending as the intermediate operational objective. This result obtains with and without explicit policy coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities.

The declaration by the World Health Organization and government-initiated actions by different countries for the COVID-19 vaccine have led to the rapid evolution of sentiments on various social media platforms. Real-time data related to vaccination has grown the need to anticipate the changes in vaccine uptake. Using Twitter dataset, the study models different emotions and their associated word. The emotions are majorly classified into hesitancy and willingness for vaccination. The study categorizes the tweets into pre-launch, post-launch, and booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Based on comparative analysis, most sentiments were related to hesitancy for vaccination during pre-launch. In post-launch, the majority of sentiments were oriented towards willingness for vaccination. However, during the booster dose, the sentiments were oriented toward happy, adequate, and free emotions. Over the time period, the willingness of the COVID-19 vaccine has improved. The practitioners and policymakers can obtain real-time sentiments based on this approach and strategize the long-term vaccination policy for COVID-19 and other vaccination programs.