Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002

Gurleen Kaur Malhotra , Amlendu Dubey

We analyse the effect of adoption of a carbon tax on the effective labour tax rates using a difference-in-difference framework in which we incorporate staggered treatment adoption and account for heterogeneous causal effects. We use data on 143 countries during 1985–2018. We conduct our analysis using DID estimation developed by Borusyak et al. (2024) and Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) followed by sensitivity analysis and placebo tests. We find that enacting a carbon tax on an average lowers the labour tax rate by 1.32 % points. In country-specific analysis we find that carbon tax implementation is reducing labour tax by around 3.57 % for Sweden and Norway, however, the effect is insignificant for Denmark. Our findings indicate that implementing a carbon tax can help to reduce the tax burden on labour. Countries experiencing substantial welfare losses due to their present tax structure might implement carbon taxes as a means to mitigate these losses.

我们采用差分法框架分析了采用碳税对实际劳动税率的影响，在该框架中，我们纳入了交错处理方法，并考虑了异质性因果效应。我们使用了 1985-2018 年间 143 个国家的数据。我们使用 Borusyak 等人（2024 年）以及 Callaway 和 Sant'Anna （2021 年）开发的 DID 估计方法进行分析，然后进行敏感性分析和安慰剂测试。我们发现，征收碳税可将劳动税率平均降低 1.32 个百分点。在国别分析中，我们发现碳税的实施使瑞典和挪威的劳动税率降低了约 3.57%，但对丹麦的影响并不显著。我们的研究结果表明，实施碳税有助于减轻劳动力的税收负担。由于目前的税收结构而造成大量福利损失的国家可以通过实施碳税来减轻这些损失。

引用次数: 0

Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004

Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to calls for greater economic self-sufficiency by exposing gaps in international collaboration and the uncertainty of global supply chains. In this study, we apply a comprehensive global modeling framework to enhance understanding of the potential impacts of fragmentation of global value chains. Supporting the general argument toward economic benefits from open markets our analysis contributes to the policy debate in two important dimensions of this phenomenon—distributional impacts and economic resiliency. We find that tariff liberalization and trade facilitation measures implemented by developing countries could not only reduce between-country inequality but also result in progressive within-country income distribution primarily through lowering food prices, as well as increasing unskilled wages. In addition, using a case study of disruption to Thailand’s electronics industry, we find higher resiliency of developing countries to external shocks in the globalized (as opposed to a localized) world.

中美贸易战、COVID-19 大流行病和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露了国际合作中的差距和全球供应链的不确定性，从而促使人们呼吁加强经济自给自足。在本研究中，我们采用了一个全面的全球建模框架，以加深对全球价值链碎片化潜在影响的理解。我们的分析支持开放市场带来经济利益的一般论点，有助于在这一现象的两个重要方面--分配影响和经济弹性--进行政策辩论。我们发现，发展中国家实施的关税自由化和贸易便利化措施不仅能减少国家间的不平等，还能主要通过降低食品价格和增加非技术性工资，在国家内部逐步实现收入分配。此外，通过对泰国电子产业受到破坏的案例研究，我们发现发展中国家在全球化（而非本地化）的世界中对外部冲击具有更强的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

The short-run displacement of EU cohesion funds in Italy: Has reprogramming a positive impact on regional growth?

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003

Fabio Mazzola, Debora Gambina

The European cohesion policy aims at fostering long-run growth. This paper, for the first time, empirically evaluates the impacts of Structural Funds re-programming on regional growth, for the Italian case during 2007–20 period. The re-programming was due to the redirection of allocated amounts facing urgent needs related to the Great Recession, Covid-19 and natural disasters. We estimate impulse response functions through Jordà local projections. We find a robust negative effect of re-programming on regional growth starting three years after the planned shock and sectoral heterogeneity. Our empirical results discourage the Funds’ redirection towards a different use from original goals.

引用次数: 0

Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs?

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002

Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an unprecedented guide to addressing sustainability challenges globally. A central issue in sustainable development debate is represented by the convergence problem. The aim of our paper is to construct a policy analysis model that can be used to examine the cross-country convergence processes with respect to the achievement of SDGs toward the goals, based on the theory of sigma-convergence and beta-convergence The analysis covers 190 countries from 2000 to 2022 and the convergence is estimated with both ordinary least square and Arellano-Bond methods. Factors affecting the multivariate convergence process are shown. Our analysis contributes to policy-shaping to redefine strategies that allows the SDGs to be achieved, highlighting the need to define concrete and measurable objectives, with qualitative and quantitative methods at national levels.

引用次数: 0

Exploring policy responses to labour-saving technologies: An assessment of basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001

Simone D’Alessandro , Tiziano Distefano , Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Davide Villani

This study examines policy responses to labor-saving technologies, focusing on employment and income inequality. Using the EUROGREEN model, we assess three scenarios: basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction. The job guarantee scheme effectively reduces unemployment but raises the fiscal deficit, while working time reduction improves wage share, cuts deficits, and reduces inequality. Basic income has a moderate impact on unemployment but significantly reduces inequality but is accompanied by higher deficits. A wealth tax could help finance these policies and contribute to inequality reduction. This research provides novel insights to policymakers by demonstrating how a strategic mix of labour policies can improve socio-economic outcomes in the face of technological-induced job disruptions.

本研究以就业和收入不平等为重点，探讨了针对节省劳动力技术的政策应对措施。我们使用 EUROGREEN 模型评估了三种方案：基本收入、就业保障和减少工作时间。就业保障计划有效降低了失业率，但增加了财政赤字，而减少工作时间则提高了工资份额，削减了赤字，减少了不平等。基本收入对失业率的影响不大，但能显著减少不平等现象，但同时也会增加赤字。征收财富税有助于为这些政策提供资金，并有助于减少不平等。这项研究为政策制定者提供了新颖的见解，展示了在面临技术引发的就业中断时，劳动政策的战略组合如何能够改善社会经济成果。

引用次数: 0

New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003

Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman

This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.

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引用次数: 0

Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003

Enock Mwakalila

The central bank should be able to play a role in an economy through monetary policy. Controlling the interest rate is a key monetary policy instrument the central bank uses. Increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks in Tanzania may counteract this instrument and its intended impact. Thus, this study empirically analyzes how government debt to commercial banks affects the transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates in Tanzania. Quarterly time series data is collected from 2010 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short and long-run relationship, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The results show that increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks prevents the trickle-down effect of the monetary policy (repo) rate on lending rates. Therefore, the study recommends that the government reduce domestic borrowings to fund its budget deficit, especially spending on projects that the private sector can implement better.

引用次数: 0

Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004

Renata Karkowska , Zbigniew Korzeb , Paweł Niedziółka

Geopolitical risks have sharply heightened inflationary pressures across global economies, posing significant challenges to the banking sector. This study investigates the complex impact of inflation on banks, focusing on the dual effect of rising inflation on bank performance. On one hand, our analysis of 196 commercial banks from 31 European countries reveals that inflation drives an increase in both interest and non-interest incomes, bolstering banks' revenue streams. On the other hand, this same inflationary pressure leads to a deterioration in efficiency ratios, indicating a decline in operational efficiency. This paradox highlights a critical issue for the banking sector: while banks may experience short-term revenue gains, their overall efficiency suffers, potentially undermining long-term stability. Our findings underscore the importance of coordinated monetary and macroprudential policies to mitigate these effects and suggest that supervisory policies favoring consolidation initiatives could offer a pathway to enhanced efficiency in an inflationary environment.

地缘政治风险急剧加剧了全球各经济体的通胀压力，给银行业带来了巨大挑战。本研究调查了通胀对银行的复杂影响，重点关注通胀上升对银行业绩的双重影响。一方面，我们对 31 个欧洲国家的 196 家商业银行进行的分析表明，通胀推动了利息和非利息收入的增长，增加了银行的收入来源。另一方面，同样的通胀压力却导致效率比率下降，表明经营效率下降。这一悖论凸显了银行业的一个关键问题：虽然银行可能会在短期内增加收入，但其整体效率却会受到影响，从而有可能破坏长期稳定。我们的研究结果凸显了协调货币政策和宏观审慎政策对减轻这些影响的重要性，并表明有利于整顿举措的监管政策可为在通胀环境下提高效率提供一条途径。

引用次数: 0

Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002

Saša Stjepanović , Daniel Tomić , Marinko Škare

This study analyzes the convergence of Green GDP among 160 countries from 1970 to 2019, emphasizing the pivotal role of environmental policies in shaping sustainable economic outcomes. By comparing traditional and Green GDP (includes environmental degradation), this paper identifies distinct economic clusters or “convergence clubs” and reveals how policy-driven changes influence these classifications. The findings highlight the significant impact of environmental policies on economic convergence and propose applicative policy recommendations to foster sustainable growth, making this study essential for policymakers engaged in economic and environmental planning. This study demonstrates the long-term convergence of the selected countries' economic growth, influenced by their disparate commitments to sustainable practices and regulatory frameworks that govern environmental protection. Thus, regardless of the variations across countries and their environmental policies, diverse economic strategies tend to produce similar outcomes in the long term.

引用次数: 0

Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU?

IF 3.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Policy Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003

Jacques Boundioa , Souleymane Diallo

To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, namely to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, it is important to have a sustainable health expenditure model. However, countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) are characterized by higher levels of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. This situation limits access to medical care, makes many people vulnerable to poverty and deviates from the goal of universal health coverage (UHC). This article analyzes the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in WAEMU over the period 2000–2020 by taking into account financial development. With the quantile regression technique for panel data, the results show that the increase in public health expenditure leads to a reduction in out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Moreover, the decrease becomes more significant when public health expenditure interacts with financial development. Thus, improving protection against financial risk related to health expenditure borne by households in the WAEMU requires the establishment of a well-developed health financing system oriented towards an increase in public health expenditure. Policies aimed at further developing the financial sector could have a multiplier effect on the reduction of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare through public expenditure.

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引用次数: 0

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