他们说了什么?他们意味着什么?通过总统在欧洲历史地标发表的言论解读美国政策:民主属性研究

Ahmet Keser, Zeynep Elçin Kamalak
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摘要

本研究调查了美国总统在欧洲重要地点和历史转折点的演讲中是如何论述民主属性的。目的是分析演讲内容,确定对使用武力相关属性的强调是否发生了变化。通过研究与使用武力相关的预测,本研究试图找出美国对俄乌战争未来政策的蛛丝马迹。本研究选取了三篇演讲进行分析:里根(1987 年)和克林顿(1994 年)的勃兰登堡演讲,以及拜登(2022 年)的华沙演讲。通过 Maxqda 程序使用全球民主指数的属性对它们进行了分析。研究结果表明,随着时间的推移,民主的重点属性和属性的整体全面性都发生了变化。总之,分析结果表明,克林顿和里根演讲中使用 "武力 "的频率在拜登的演讲中已转变为 "权力"。这表明用于威慑的潜在军事力量可能会得到加强,但其目的并不是在俄乌战争中作为武力手段进行实际部署。
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What Did They Say? What Did They Mean? Interpreting US Policies through Presidents’ Discourses at Historical Landmarks in Europe: A Study of Democracy Attributes
This study investigates how US Presidents addressed the attributes of democracy in their speeches at critical European sites and historical breakpoints. The aim is to analyze the content of the speeches and determine whether there is a change in the emphasis on attributes related to the use of force. By examining projections related to force use, the study seeks to identify traces of US policies for the future of the Russian-Ukrainian War. Three speeches were selected for analysis: Reagan’s (1987) and Clinton’s (1994) Brandenburg’s speeches, and Biden’s (2022) Warsaw speech. They were analyzed using the attributes of global democracy indices through the Maxqda program. The findings indicate that the focused attributes of democracy and the overall comprehensiveness of attributes have changed over time. In summary, the analysis reveals that the frequency of the code ‘force’ in Clinton’s and Reagan’s speeches has shifted to the code ‘power’ in Biden’s speech. This suggests that the potential military power for deterrence may be strengthened, yet it is not intended for physical deployment in the Russian-Ukrainian war as a means of force.
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