Enabling efficient satellite mission design with rule-based collision avoidance

The growing number of operational spacecraft in Earth's orbit entails an increasing operational effort for collision avoidance (COLA), particularly regarding the coordination of evasive measures. To reduce the associated workload, COLA operations should already be considered in the early planning phases of space missions. The Mission Analysis Software (MAS) is a web-based application developed within the ESA-funded CASCADE (Collision avoidance, satellite coordination assessment demonstration environment) project by OKAPI:Orbits and TU Darmstadt for this purpose. The software follows a data-driven approach to offer satellite operators, mission designers, service providers, agencies, and authorities two services: conjunction assessment and rule analysis. The conjunction assessment provides an estimation of the number and type of conjunctions to be expected on the targeted orbit and identifies frequently conjuncting parties for the current population of active satellites as well as for conceivable future scenarios. The rule analysis follows a rule-based approach to coordinate COLA between individual operators, allowing users to build custom hierarchical rule sets from pre-defined rule building blocks to achieve a desired split of effort between the conjunction parties. The MAS enables the assessment of the operational consequences for a chosen rule set, empowering users to reach bilateral agreements with identified frequently conjuncting parties to determine the obligation to take evasive measures for future conjunctions. The approach of the MAS allows for the pre-emptive reduction of the expected number of conjunctions enabling operators to optimize orbit parameters within their mission constraints as well as the automatization of COLA coordination during operations. Through this, the MAS optimizes propellant needs, mission time, and required workforce associated with COLA for space missions.

This paper presents the MAS, showcasing the key features and use cases that have been developed closely with stakeholders and the European Space Agency. Furthermore, the data-based simulation approach of the MAS will be explained, covering the data sources and design choices for the conjunction detection and propagation module. The paper also presents the results of a preliminary rule analysis conducted for the population of active satellites in low Earth orbit as of April 2023. As an intermediate result of an on-going research activity involving the authoring entities, a major goal of this paper is to engage with satellite operators, mission designers, service providers, agencies, and authorities in order to tailor the results of the activity to their actual needs.