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Using WACCM-X neutral densities for orbital propagation: Challenges and solutions 利用 WACCM-X 中性密度进行轨道传播:挑战与解决方案
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.04.012
Matthew K. Brown, Sean Elvidge
Atmospheric drag is a major perturbation in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The neutral density obtained from atmospheric models is a major source of uncertainty in drag calculations and therefore orbital propagation in LEO. Many atmospheric models are available, with fast empirical models most commonly used. We explore the challenges and benefits of using numerical models, specifically the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) as part of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Numerical models provide higher resolution of thermospheric structures, along with more accurate neutral density forecasts through assimilative models such as the Advanced Ensemble electron Density Assimilation System (AENeAS). Solutions are presented to overcome the challenges of using numerical models for neutral densities.
大气阻力是低地球轨道(LEO)的一个主要扰动因素。从大气模型中获得的中性密度是阻力计算不确定性的主要来源,因此也是低地轨道轨道传播不确定性的主要来源。目前有许多大气模型,最常用的是快速经验模型。我们探讨了使用数值模型的挑战和好处,特别是作为共同体地球系统模型(CESM)一部分的热层和电离层扩展全大气层共同体气候模型(WACCM-X)。数值模式提供了更高分辨率的热层结构,并通过同化模式(如高级集合电子密度同化系统(AENeAS))提供了更准确的中性密度预报。提出了克服使用数值模式预测中性密度所面临挑战的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Development of ballistic limit equations in support of the Mars sample return mission 开发弹道极限方程,支持火星采样返回任务
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.06.003
NASA and ESA are currently planning the Mars Sample Return campaign, comprising missions whose combined objective is to bring the first samples of Mars material back to Earth for detailed study. Until recently, the NASA-ESA plan was to return samples to Earth using three missions. The final component, the Earth Entry System (EES), will bring the Mars samples back to the Earth, where it will land following safe entry through the Earth's atmosphere. There is a concern regarding the risk of biological contamination of the Earth's biosphere from returned Mars samples if, for example, the structural integrity of the EES were compromised during its return mission due to a perforation of a critical surface resulting from a high-speed meteoroid impact. To assess the risks associated with such an event, NASA is developing equations that predict the damage that various EES elements will sustain as a result of such an impact, as well as equations that predict whether or not a particular system will sustain a critical failure following such an impact. In this paper, we review recent progress in the development of such equations for the EES forebody and the EES aftbody, the two elements of the EES that are most exposed to the meteoroid environment. Limitations of the BLEs are also discussed, which can also be used to further inform the next steps in the BLE development.
美国航天局和欧空局目前正在规划火星取样返回活动,其中包括一些飞行任务,其共同目标是将第一批火星物质样品带回地球进行详细研究。直到最近,NASA-ESA 的计划是通过三次飞行任务将样本送回地球。最后一个部分,即地球进入系统(EES),将把火星样本带回地球,在安全进入地球大气层后在地球着陆。有人担心,如果在执行返回任务期间,由于高速流星体撞击导致关键表面穿孔,EES 的结构完整性受到破坏,返回的火星样本就有可能对地球生物圈造成生物污染。为了评估与此类事件相关的风险,NASA 正在开发一些方程,用于预测各种 EES 元件在此类撞击中将遭受的破坏,以及预测特定系统在此类撞击后是否会出现临界故障的方程。在本文中,我们回顾了最近在为 EES 前体和 EES 后体开发此类方程方面取得的进展,EES 前体和 EES 后体是 EES 中暴露在流星体环境中最多的两个元件。本文还讨论了 BLE 的局限性,这些局限性也可用于进一步指导 BLE 开发的下一步工作。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of ejecta generation and mitigation measures for large-scale structures on geostationary orbit 地球静止轨道大型结构抛射物生成量估算和减缓措施
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.06.005
Satomi Kawamoto , Ryusuke Harada , Daisuke Joudoi , Yugo Kimoto , Taku Izumiyama , Yasuhiro Akahoshi
Large-scale structures have a non-negligible collision probability with micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) due to their massive size, even in geostationary orbit (GEO) with low debris flux. When MMOD impact the spacecraft surfaces at high velocity, secondary debris called ejecta are generated, and they may remain semi-permanently and accumulate because there is no atmospheric drag at high altitudes such as GEO. To evaluate the amount of ejecta generation, hypervelocity impact tests were conducted for the material for future large-scale structures or material commonly used in conventional spacecraft, such as CFRP honeycomb panels and solar cells. The effect of impact energy on ejecta generation was evaluated by changing the impact velocity and projectile density. Impact tests were also conducted on irradiated samples to investigate the effects of environmental degradation due to long-term exposure to orbit. The results showed that the amount of ejecta increased with impact energy and may have been affected by radiation-induced degradation. Next, hypervelocity impact tests were conducted to investigate the measures to reduce ejecta, and it was shown that the ejecta generation could be reduced by using low-density materials such as polyimide foam and silica aerogel.
大型结构由于体积庞大,与微流星体和轨道碎片(MMOD)发生碰撞的概率不可忽略,即使在碎片通量较低的地球静止轨道(GEO)上也是如此。当微流星体和轨道碎片以高速撞击航天器表面时,会产生被称为抛射物的二次碎片,由于在地球同步轨道等高空没有大气阻力,这些碎片可能会半永久性地滞留和累积。为了评估弹射物的产生量,对未来大型结构的材料或常规航天器中常用的材料(如 CFRP 蜂窝板和太阳能电池)进行了超高速撞击试验。通过改变冲击速度和射弹密度,评估了冲击能量对喷出物产生的影响。还对经过辐照的样品进行了撞击试验,以研究长期暴露在轨道上造成的环境退化的影响。结果表明,抛射物的数量随撞击能量的增加而增加,可能受到辐射引起的降解的影响。接着进行了超高速撞击试验,以研究减少弹射物的措施,结果表明,使用聚酰亚胺泡沫塑料和二氧化硅气凝胶等低密度材料可以减少弹射物的产生。
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引用次数: 0
Forensic analysis of recent debris-generating events 对近期碎片生成事件的取证分析
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.06.006
D.L. Mains , G.E. Peterson , J.P. McVey , J.C. Maldonado , M.E. Sorge
Every on-orbit collision or explosion can pose a threat, not only to the existing satellite population but also to the long-term usability of Earth orbit. This threat exists even if satellites can actively maneuver to avoid trackable debris fragments, since an estimated 96 % of potentially mission-ending (>1 cm) debris is untrackable [1]. Prevention of every on-orbit breakup may not be possible. However, armed with an understanding of the likely causes of fragmentation events, satellite developers and operators can take actions to mitigate such events in the future. Astrodynamics forensic analyses, the sleuthing techniques used to gather an event's known details and estimate its unknown parameters, can be used to develop theories about the causes of a breakup and to predict its consequences.
In the past five years, several on-orbit collisions and explosions have occurred, involving a variety of orbiting objects with varying amounts of available observational data. Techniques and tools developed over decades at The Aerospace Corporation are used to characterize key parameters of these events, including spread velocity of the debris pieces, energy involved in the breakup events, and mass and area estimates of the individual debris fragments. These forensic capabilities are enhanced by utilizing patterns identified from different classes of historical breakups and ground-test data. This paper shows the effectiveness of this methodology when used for analysis of a variety of event types including collisions, such as the Cosmos 1408 ASAT test and SL-14 rocket body breakup, rocket body fragmentations such as the 2022 Long March 6A breakup, and satellite fragmentations such as the Resur-O1 breakup. Representative models of events are developed using the IMPACT fragmentation tool, and predictions of the lifetimes of the subtrackable orbital debris are included. Where event sources are unknown, breakup parameters and trends are used to suggest possible causes. The challenges of analyzing an orbital breakup mystery with few observational clues are also discussed.
每一次在轨碰撞或爆炸不仅会对现有卫星群造成威胁,还会对地球轨道的长期可用性造成威胁。即使卫星能够主动机动以避开可跟踪的碎片,这种威胁也是存在的,因为据估计,96%可能危及飞行任务(1 厘米)的碎片是无法跟踪的[1]。防止每一次在轨碎裂可能是不可能的。但是,如果了解了碎片事件的可能原因,卫星开发商和运营商就可以采取行动,在未来减少此类事件的发生。天体动力学法证分析是一种用于收集事件已知细节和估算未知参数的侦查技术,可用于发展有关碎裂原因的理论并预测其后果。在过去五年中,发生了多起在轨碰撞和爆炸事件,涉及各种轨道物体,其可用观测数据量各不相同。美国航空航天公司数十年来开发的技术和工具被用来描述这些事件的关键参数,包括碎片的扩散速度、解体事件涉及的能量以及单个碎片的质量和面积估算。通过利用从不同类别的历史断裂和地面测试数据中识别出的模式,这些取证能力得到了增强。本文展示了这一方法在用于分析各种类型事件时的有效性,包括碰撞(如宇宙 1408 反卫星试验和 SL-14 火箭本体破裂)、火箭本体碎片(如 2022 年长征 6A 号火箭本体破裂)和卫星碎片(如 Resur-O1 号卫星本体破裂)。利用 IMPACT 破碎工具开发了具有代表性的事件模型,并对可跟踪轨道碎片的寿命进行了预测。在事件来源不明的情况下,利用碎裂参数和趋势来提出可能的原因。还讨论了在观测线索很少的情况下分析轨道碎裂之谜所面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Safety considerations for large constellations of satellites 大型卫星群的安全考虑因素
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.08.001
Hugh G. Lewis, Georgia Skelton
The deployment of constellations of satellites within low Earth orbit (LEO) has implications for space operations and for the broader space environment. A large active satellite population will experience high numbers of conjunctions with other resident space objects (RSOs). Even if only a small proportion are high-probability events, the substantial number of conjunctions will still lead to many potentially high-risk encounters with other RSOs and a correspondingly high burden for their operators to mitigate them via maneuvers. This burden is exacerbated if the operator adopts an approach whereby risk mitigation maneuvers are conducted at collision probability levels below the widely accepted 1E-4 (1-in-10,000). Despite these significant efforts the remaining aggregate risk may still be relatively high because of the large number of conjunctions experienced by some constellations, leading to ongoing concern over the safety of these space systems. Through an analysis of conjunction assessment data, simulations using the DAMAGE computational model, and a new mapping approach, the risks from conjunctions between large constellations and other RSOs have been investigated. The results show that some existing constellations currently face more than a 10 % annual collision probability even after accounting for their robust risk mitigation approaches, with implications for the safety and long-term sustainability of large constellations and the broader LEO environment. Overall, the work emphasizes the need for new research and guidance on this aspect of space operations.
在低地球轨道(LEO)上部署卫星群对空间运行和更广泛的空间环境都有影响。大量的现役卫星将与其他驻留空间物体(RSO)发生大量的会合。即使只有一小部分是高概率事件,大量的会合仍然会导致与其他 RSO 发生许多潜在的高风险碰撞,并给其操作人员带来相应的沉重负担,以通过机动来减轻这些碰撞。如果运营商采用的方法是在碰撞概率低于广泛接受的 1E-4(1/10,000)时进行风险缓解操作,那么这种负担就会加重。尽管做出了这些重大努力,但由于一些星座经历了大量会合,剩余的总体风险可能仍然相对较高,从而导致对这些空间系统安全的持续关注。通过对会合评估数据的分析、使用 DAMAGE 计算模型的模拟以及一种新的绘图方法,对大型星座和其他 RSO 之间的会合风险进行了调查。研究结果表明,即使考虑了稳健的风险缓解方法,一些现有星座目前每年面临的碰撞概率仍超过10%,这对大型星座和更广泛的低地球轨道环境的安全和长期可持续性产生了影响。总之,这项工作强调需要对空间运行的这一方面进行新的研究和指导。
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引用次数: 0
Less fuel strategies for space debris removal in Low Earth Orbit 在低地球轨道清除空间碎片的少燃料战略
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.08.002
Yuki Itaya , Yasuhiro Yoshimura , Toshiya Hanada , Tadanori Fukushima
This paper proposes less fuel strategies for space debris removal. To mitigate the risk of space debris cost-efficiently, multi-rendezvous missions are under development. On the other hand, multi-rendezvous missions often require changing orbital planes of removal satellites, which requires a huge amount of ΔV. Therefore, this study focuses on exploiting the J2 perturbation force as an auxiliary force and aims to establish maneuver rules that minimize ΔV consumption while maximizing the benefit of the J2 perturbation. The J2 perturbation equation is explored analytically, which clarifies whether the change in the semi-major axis or the inclination dominates the efficiency of the exploitation. A straightforward criterion is extracted which determines the efficient maneuver based on the initial inclination of the satellite.
本文提出了清除空间碎片的少燃料战略。为了低成本高效率地降低空间碎片风险,目前正在开发多交会任务。另一方面,多交会任务往往需要改变清除卫星的轨道平面,这就需要大量的ΔV。因此,本研究侧重于利用J2扰动力作为辅助力,旨在建立既能最大限度减少ΔV消耗,又能最大限度发挥J2扰动效益的机动规则。对 J2 扰动方程进行了分析探索,从而明确了是半长轴还是倾角的变化主导了利用效率。根据卫星的初始倾角,提取了一个确定有效机动的直接标准。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive relative orbit control considering laser ablation uncertainty 考虑激光烧蚀不确定性的自适应相对轨道控制
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.04.007
This study proposes a relative orbit control law for laser debris removal missions considering the uncertainties of laser ablation and atmospheric drag. A removal spacecraft irradiates laser pulses to a target debris to generate the ablation force for deorbiting. The deorbiting force lowers the target altitude, and the removal spacecraft must follow it to maintain its relative position for continuous laser irradiation. The difficulty stems from uncertainties of the magnitude of laser ablation and external disturbances such as atmospheric drag. To tackle this problem, this study derives an adaptive control method using the Gaussian process regression to cancel the uncertainties with a nonparametric regression model. Numerical simulations verify the proposed control law under the uncertainties of laser ablation and atmospheric drag. The proposed control law can contribute to the realization of a safer and more secure mission not only for laser debris removal missions, but also for other on-orbit services.
考虑到激光烧蚀和大气阻力的不确定性,本研究提出了激光碎片清除任务的相对轨道控制法则。清除飞船向目标碎片照射激光脉冲,产生烧蚀力使其脱轨。脱轨力会降低目标高度,移除航天器必须紧随其后,以保持持续激光照射的相对位置。困难在于激光烧蚀力大小的不确定性以及大气阻力等外部干扰。为解决这一问题,本研究利用高斯过程回归推导出一种自适应控制方法,通过非参数回归模型消除不确定性。数值模拟验证了在激光烧蚀和大气阻力的不确定性下所提出的控制法则。所提出的控制法则不仅有助于激光碎片清除任务,也有助于其他在轨服务实现更安全可靠的任务。
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引用次数: 0
A holistic systems thinking approach to space sustainability via space debris management 通过空间碎片管理实现空间可持续性的整体系统思维方法
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.05.007
This paper explores the concept of space sustainability and its interconnections using systems thinking approaches. This is done by highlighting the importance of multi-disciplinary perspectives when creating policies aimed at addressing the complex challenges of sustainability for space-related activities. Causal loop diagrams are employed to highlight the presence of feedback loops and causal relationships that are typically absent in space debris models and are treated as separate systems. A systems representation of the space environment is presented along with a discussion of its role in furthering research relating to the impact of large satellite constellations on factors important for holistic sustainability. This study investigated one example feedback between the space environment and the atmosphere and found that CO2 emissions specifically emitted from launches and re-entries have no significant impact on atmospheric density below 500 km.
本文利用系统思维方法探讨空间可持续性概念及其相互联系。在制定旨在应对空间相关活动可持续性复杂挑战的政策时,本文强调了多学科视角的重要性。采用因果循环图来强调反馈循环和因果关系的存在,空间碎片模型中通常不存在这些反馈循环和因果关系,而是将其作为单独的系统处理。本研究介绍了空间环境的系统表示法,并讨论了该表示法在进一步研究大型卫星群对整体可持续性重要因素的影响方面的作用。这项研究调查了空间环境与大气层之间的一个反馈实例,发现专门从发射和再入大气层排放的二氧化碳对 500 公里以下的大气密度没有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
In-situ observations of resident space objects with the CHEOPS space telescope 用 CHEOPS 空间望远镜对常驻空间物体进行现场观测
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.08.005
Nicolas Billot , Stephan Hellmich , Willy Benz , Andrea Fortier , David Ehrenreich , Christopher Broeg , Alexis Heitzmann , Anja Bekkelien , Alexis Brandeker , Yann Alibert , Roi Alonso , Tamas Bárczy , David Barrado Navascues , Susana C.C. Barros , Wolfgang Baumjohann , Federico Biondi , Luca Borsato , Andrew Collier Cameron , Carlos Corral van Damme , Alexandre C.M. Correia , Thomas G. Wilson
The CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is a partnership between the European Space Agency and Switzerland with important contributions by 10 additional ESA member States. It is the first S-class mission in the ESA Science Programme. CHEOPS has been flying on a Sun-synchronous low Earth orbit since December 2019, collecting millions of short-exposure images in the visible domain to study exoplanet properties.
A small yet increasing fraction of CHEOPS images show linear trails caused by resident space objects crossing the instrument field of view. CHEOPS’ orbit is indeed particularly favourable to serendipitously detect objects in its vicinity as the spacecraft rarely enters the Earth's shadow, sits at an altitude of 700 km, and observes with moderate phase angles relative to the Sun. This observing configuration is quite powerful, and it is complementary to optical observations from the ground.
To characterize the population of satellites and orbital debris observed by CHEOPS, all and every science images acquired over the past 3 years have been scanned with a Hough transform algorithm to identify the characteristic linear features that these objects cause on the images. Thousands of trails have been detected. This statistically significant sample shows interesting trends and features such as an increased occurrence rate over the past years as well as the fingerprint of the Starlink constellation. The cross-matching of individual trails with catalogued objects is underway as we aim to measure their distance at the time of observation and deduce the apparent magnitude of the detected objects.
As space agencies and private companies are developing new space-based surveillance and tracking activities to catalogue and characterize the distribution of small debris, the CHEOPS experience is timely and relevant. With the first CHEOPS mission extension currently running until the end of 2026, and a possible second extension until the end of 2029, the longer time coverage will make our dataset even more valuable to the community, especially for characterizing objects with recurrent crossings.
表征系外行星的卫星(CHEOPS)是欧洲航天局和瑞士之间的合作项目,欧空局的另外 10 个成员国也做出了重要贡献。它是欧空局科学计划中的第一个 S 级任务。自2019年12月以来,CHEOPS一直在太阳同步低地球轨道上飞行,收集了数百万张可见光域的短曝光图像,用于研究系外行星的特性。CHEOPS的轨道确实特别有利于偶然发现其附近的天体,因为航天器很少进入地球的阴影,位于700公里的高度,并以相对于太阳的中等相位角进行观测。为了描述 CHEOPS 观测到的卫星和轨道碎片群的特征,过去 3 年中获得的所有科学图像都用 Hough 变换算法进行了扫描,以识别这些物体在图像上造成的线性特征。已检测到数千条轨迹。这个具有统计意义的样本显示出有趣的趋势和特征,如过去几年中出现率的增加以及星链星座的指纹。由于空间机构和私营公司正在开发新的天基监视和跟踪活动,以对小型碎片的分布进行编目和定性,CHEOPS 的经验非常及时和实用。目前,CHEOPS 飞行任务第一次延长至 2026 年底,第二次可能延长至 2029 年底,更长的时间覆盖范围将使我们的数据集对社会更有价值,特别是在描述反复交叉的物体特征方面。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic assessment of disposal orbit lifetime for CubeSat rideshares on resonant decaying geosynchronous transfer orbits 共振衰减地球同步转移轨道上立方体卫星共用弃星轨道寿命的概率评估
IF 1 Q3 ENGINEERING, AEROSPACE Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2024.07.009
Juan C. Maldonado, Alan B. Jenkin, John P. McVey
Recent years have seen an increase in CubeSat missions on rideshares to geosynchronous orbit. The typical practice for these missions is to deploy the CubeSat on a geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) which results in a perigee altitude that is low enough that atmospheric drag will cause the apogee altitude to decay and eventual reentry. However, for GTOs, demonstrating compliance with limits on orbital lifetime in orbital debris mitigation guidelines is not straightforward due to a solar resonance phenomenon that exists which can cause high variability of the orbital lifetime of the satellite. This paper presents a procedure for determining the likelihood that orbital lifetime of a rideshare CubeSat on a resonant GTO will have an orbital lifetime below a 25-year and 5-year limit. The procedure uses a Monte Carlo analysis in which uncertain parameters are randomly varied, including the launch time/initial RAAN and the drag coefficient. The Aerospace precision propagation tool TRACE is used with a high-fidelity force model to enable precision integration through the atmosphere at perigee. It is shown in the study that there is a systematic variation in likelihood of staying below a 25- and 5-year orbital lifetime limit and that drag enhancement devices may be needed to meet the 5-year limit for CubeSat rideshares. The study also presents findings on a solar radiation pressure induced resonance that was observed for high area-to-mass ratios which suggests that there can be a diminishing return when increasing the area of a drag enhancement device to quicken deorbit.
近年来,地球同步轨道上的立方体卫星飞行任务越来越多。这些飞行任务的典型做法是将立方体卫星部署在地球同步转移轨道(GTO)上,这样的近地点高度足够低,大气阻力会导致远地点高度衰减并最终重返大气层。然而,对于地球同步转移轨道来说,要证明符合轨道碎片缓减准则中对轨道寿命的限制并不简单,这是因为太阳共振现象的存在会导致卫星轨道寿命的高度可变性。本文介绍了一种程序,用于确定共振地球同步转移轨道上的共享立方体卫星的轨道寿命低于25年和5年限制的可能性。该程序采用蒙特卡洛分析法,随机改变不确定参数,包括发射时间/初始 RAAN 和阻力系数。航空航天精确传播工具 TRACE 与高保真力模型一起使用,以实现近地点大气层的精确整合。研究表明,保持低于 25 年和 5 年轨道寿命限制的可能性存在系统性差异,可能需要阻力增强装置来满足立方体卫星共乘的 5 年限制。该研究还介绍了太阳辐射压力诱导共振的发现,该共振是在高面积质量比的情况下观察到的,表明在增加阻力增强装置的面积以加速脱轨时,回报可能会递减。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Space Safety Engineering
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