Deterrence Scenarios in Outer Space

This article examines a potential, and increasingly aggressive satellite posture in outer space by way of increased presence of adversary satellites, unilateral technological advancements by the adversary, and an increase of cyber-attacks on autonomous space systems; including an inquiry into “salami tactics” in outer space. First, it considers the proposed category of inferential ASAT and distinguishes it from traditional categorizations of counterspace threats. It then delves into the theoretical construct of deterrence theory by considering two tenets most implicated by inferential capabilities: signaling and credibility. Finally, the essay expands upon Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Aerospace Security Project’s 2021 Report, wherein a US military satellite is compromised by an allegedly rouge Chinese satellite. It concludes by offering options for successful deterrence in outer space given the scenario.