On the uncertainty of anthropogenic aromatic volatile organic compound emissions: model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

Abstract. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) significantly impact air quality and atmospheric chemistry, influencing ozone formation and secondary organic aerosol production. Despite their importance, the uncertainties associated with representing VOCs in atmospheric emission inventories are considerable. This work presents a spatiotemporal assessment and evaluation of benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) emissions and concentrations in Spain by combining bottom-up emissions, air quality modelling techniques, and ground-based observations. The emissions produced by High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMESv3) were used as input to the Multiscale Online Nonhydrostatic AtmospheRe CHemistry (MONARCH) chemical transport model to simulate surface concentrations across Spain. Comparing modelled and observed levels revealed uncertainty in the anthropogenic emissions, which were further explored through sensitivity tests. The largest levels of observed benzene and xylene were found in industrial sites near coke ovens, refineries, and car manufacturing facilities, where the modelling results show large underestimations. Official emissions reported for these facilities were replaced by alternative estimates, resulting in varied improvements in the model's performance across different stations. However, uncertainties associated with industrial emission processes persist, emphasising the need for further refinement. For toluene, consistent overestimations in background stations were mainly related to uncertainties in the spatial disaggregation of emissions from industrial-use solvent activities, mainly wood paint applications. Observed benzene levels in Barcelona's urban traffic areas were 5 times larger than the ones observed in Madrid. MONARCH failed to reproduce the observed gradient between the two cities due to uncertainties arising from estimating emissions from motorcycles and mopeds, as well as from different measurement methods and the model's capacity to accurately simulate meteorological conditions. Our results are constrained by the spatial and temporal coverage of available BTX observations, posing a key challenge in evaluating the spatial distribution of modelled levels and associated emissions.