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Ozone dry deposition through plant stomata: Multi-model comparison with flux observations and the role of water stress as part of AQMEII4 Activity 2. 通过植物气孔的臭氧干沉降:多模式与通量观测的比较以及水分胁迫在AQMEII4活动2中的作用
IF 5.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-8613-2025
Anam M Khan, Olivia E Clifton, Jesse O Bash, Sam Bland, Nathan Booth, Philip Cheung, Lisa Emberson, Johannes Flemming, Erick Fredj, Stefano Galmarini, Laurens Ganzeveld, Orestis Gazetas, Ignacio Goded, Christian Hogrefe, Christopher D Holmes, László Horváth, Vincent Huijnen, Qian Li, Paul A Makar, Ivan Mammarella, Giovanni Manca, J William Munger, Juan L Pérez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Limei Ran, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Sam J Silva, Ralf Staebler, Shihan Sun, Amos P K Tai, Eran Tas, Timo Vesala, Tamás Weidinger, Zhiyong Wu, Leiming Zhang, Paul C Stoy
<p><p>A substantial portion of tropospheric <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> dry deposition occurs after diffusion of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> through plant stomata. Simulating stomatal uptake of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> in 3D atmospheric chemistry models is important in the face of increasing drought induced declines in stomatal conductance and enhanced ambient <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> . Here, we present a comparison of the stomatal component of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> dry deposition <math> <mfenced> <mrow> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </mrow> </mfenced> </math> from chemical transport models and estimates of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> from observed <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>CO</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> , latent heat, and <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> flux. The dry deposition schemes were configured as single-point models forced with data collected at flux towers. We conducted sensitivity analyses to study the impact of model parameters that control stomatal moisture stress on modeled <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> . Examining six sites around the northern hemisphere, we find that the seasonality of observed flux-based <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> agrees with the seasonality of simulated <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> at times during the growing season with disagreements occurring during the later part of the growing season at some sites. We find that modeled water stress effects are too strong in a temperate-boreal transition forest. Some single-point models overestimate summertime <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> in a seasonally water-limited Mediterranean shrubland. At all sites examined, modeled <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> was sensitive to parameters that control the vapor pressure deficit stress. At specific sites that experienced substantial declines in soil moisture, the simulation of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>eg</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mtext>s</mtext></mrow> </msub> </math> was highly sensitive to parameters that control the soil moisture stress. The findings demonstrate the challenges in accurately representing the effects of moisture stress on the stomatal sink of <math> <msub><mrow><mtext>O</mtext></mrow> <mrow><mn>3</mn></mrow> </msub> </math> during observed increases in drynes
相当一部分的对流层臭氧干沉积发生在臭氧通过植物气孔扩散之后。面对日益严重的干旱导致的气孔导度下降和环境o3增加,在三维大气化学模型中模拟气孔对o3的吸收具有重要意义。在这里,我们比较了化学输运模型和观测到的co2、潜热和o3通量估算的o3干沉积的气孔组分。干沉积方案配置为单点模型,强制使用在通量塔收集的数据。通过敏感性分析,研究了控制气孔水分胁迫的模型参数对模拟样品的影响。通过对北半球6个站点的考察,我们发现,在生长季节,观测到的基于通量的土壤水分的季节性与模拟土壤水分的季节性有时是一致的,但在生长季节后期,一些站点出现了不一致。我们发现模拟的水分胁迫效应在温带-北方过渡森林中过于强烈。一些单点模型高估了地中海季节性水资源有限的灌木丛的夏季降雨量。在所有检查的地点,模拟eg对控制蒸汽压亏缺应力的参数敏感。在土壤湿度大幅下降的特定地点,模拟eg对控制土壤水分应力的参数高度敏感。这些发现表明,在观测到的由于生态系统特定植物资源相互作用而导致的干旱增加期间,准确表征水分胁迫对气孔O - 3汇的影响存在挑战。
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Simulating stomatal uptake of &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;O&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; in 3D atmospheric chemistry models is important in the face of increasing drought induced declines in stomatal conductance and enhanced ambient &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;O&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; . Here, we present a comparison of the stomatal component of &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;O&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; dry deposition &lt;math&gt; &lt;mfenced&gt; &lt;mrow&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;eg&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;s&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/mfenced&gt; &lt;/math&gt; from chemical transport models and estimates of &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;eg&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;s&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; from observed &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;CO&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; , latent heat, and &lt;math&gt; &lt;msub&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mtext&gt;O&lt;/mtext&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msub&gt; &lt;/math&gt; flux. 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引用次数: 0
Critical load exceedances for North America and Europe using an ensemble of models and an investigation of causes of environmental impact estimate variability: an AQMEII4 study. 北美和欧洲的临界负荷超标使用模型集合和环境影响估计变异原因调查:AQMEII4研究。
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025
Paul A Makar, Philip Cheung, Christian Hogrefe, Ayodeji Akingunola, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O Bash, Michael D Bell, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Hazel Cathcart, Olivia E Clifton, Alma Hodzic, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Jason A Lynch, Kester Momoh, Juan L Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Thomas Scheuschner, Mark W Shephard, Ranjeet S Sokhi, Stefano Galmarini

Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) in different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4), to identify where the risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and European 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. Targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed for an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. Datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were created for this analysis. These were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2% to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2% to 11.4 %). All models agreed regarding the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both the severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5% to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous-community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9% to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in predictions of both total N deposition and the change in N deposition and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the 2 years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48% to 4.32% from 2009 to 2010), while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2% to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the 2 years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulfur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to the observed wet deposition of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aero

在空气质量模型评估国际倡议第4阶段(AQMEII4)下,使用欧洲和北美的空气质量模型集合估计了不同生态系统中硫(S)和氮(N)沉积的临界负荷超标情况,以确定基于模型沉积估计的生态系统危害风险发生的地方。系统由共同排放和侧向边界条件输入驱动。模型输出被重新划分到常见的北美和欧洲0.125°分辨率域,然后用于计算临界负荷超标。AQMEII4中实施的有针对性的沉积诊断允许进行前所未有的模拟后分析,并有助于确定临界负荷超出估计中模型与模型差异的具体原因。为此分析创建了北美森林、土壤、水和水生生态系统的临界酸度负荷数据集。将这些与集合沉积预测相结合,显示出在2010年至2016年期间,超标地点的面积和数量大幅减少(森林土壤:13.2%至6.1%;水生生态系统:21.2%至11.4%)。所有模型对2010 - 2016年总超越量变化的方向一致。北美整体还预测,在2010年至2016年期间,美国受富营养化影响的生态系统的严重程度和超过的总面积都有所下降(敏感附生地衣:81.5%至75.8%)。2010年至2016年间,草本群落丰富度的超标率也从13.9%降至3.9%。与北美富营养化结果相关的不确定性很高;各模型对总氮沉降和氮沉降变化的预测存在较大差异,因此对富营养化异常的预测也存在较大差异。利用欧洲集合预测酸化临界负荷的相对静态超标(2009 - 2010年为4.48% ~ 4.32%),而富营养化超标略有增加(60.2% ~ 62.2%)。大部分模型的临界负荷超出值与2年间的总体变化相同,但超出值的空间范围和幅度在不同模型之间存在显著差异。对这种差异的原因进行了详细的研究,首先对不同来源的硫和氮沉积的相对贡献进行了排序,根据沉积质量和沉积质量中模型与模型之间的差异,然后使用AQMEII4诊断进行分析,并对最新文献进行了评估。对于观测到的硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵的湿沉降,北美和欧洲整体的所有模式每年都有净负偏倚。诊断和最近的文献表明,这种偏差可能源于气溶胶和气体的云清除不足,并且可以通过在建模框架内纳入多相水流星清除来改善。北美模式无法预测湿铵离子沉积季节高峰的时间(观测到最大值在4月,而所有模式都预测最大值在6月)也可能与多相水流星清除的需要有关(这里使用的所有模式都没有雪清除)。颗粒硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵沉积通量在不同模式之间的相对重要性的高度可变性与在一些模式中使用更新的颗粒干沉积参数化有关。然而,最近的文献和整体中一些模型的进一步发展表明,这些颗粒偏差也可以通过纳入多相水流星清除来改善。SO2和HNO3干沉降参数化与年硫氮沉降预测变异有关,诊断分析表明角质层和土壤沉降途径主导了这些物种的沉降质量通量。进一步改进这些沉积途径参数化的工作将减少酸化-气体沉积模型估计的可变性。在一些模型中,碱阳离子化学的缺失被证明是细模颗粒铵和颗粒硝酸盐浓度正偏差的主要因素。根据所采用的模型和双向通量算法的不同,采用氨双向通量的模型具有最大和最小的偏差。对双向通量模型的仔细分析表明,NH3性能较差的人可能低估了森林地区NH3排放通量的程度。以简单偏置校正的形式将模型-测量融合应用于2016年临界载荷。这通常减少了模型之间的可变性。 然而,偏差校正工作表明,在进行模型测量融合时,需要接近硫和氮收支的观测值。大气中不同形式的硫和氮之间的化学转化有时会导致所产生的总硫和氮沉积通量场的补偿偏差。如果模型-测量融合只应用于导致硫或氮总沉积的某些场,而不是所有场,则校正可能导致模型之间更大的变异性,或者在未观测或未使用的观测分量对预测的总沉积有重大贡献的情况下,对模型集合的结果精度降低。基于这些结果,因此建议增加对以下模型过程的研究重点以及可能有助于模型评估和改进的观测:多相水流星清除与更新的颗粒干沉积、角质和土壤沉积路径算法相结合,用于酸化气体、碱阳离子化学和排放,以及NH3双向通量。与卫星观测的比较表明,海洋NH3排放源应包括在区域化学输送模式中。在某些情况下,在任何给定模型中选择的土地利用数据库对沉积总量有显著影响,建议在今后的工作中采用跨化学运输模型和临界负荷计算的共同土地利用数据库。
{"title":"Critical load exceedances for North America and Europe using an ensemble of models and an investigation of causes of environmental impact estimate variability: an AQMEII4 study.","authors":"Paul A Makar, Philip Cheung, Christian Hogrefe, Ayodeji Akingunola, Ummugulsum Alyuz, Jesse O Bash, Michael D Bell, Roberto Bellasio, Roberto Bianconi, Tim Butler, Hazel Cathcart, Olivia E Clifton, Alma Hodzic, Ioannis Kioutsioukis, Richard Kranenburg, Aurelia Lupascu, Jason A Lynch, Kester Momoh, Juan L Perez-Camanyo, Jonathan Pleim, Young-Hee Ryu, Roberto San Jose, Donna Schwede, Thomas Scheuschner, Mark W Shephard, Ranjeet S Sokhi, Stefano Galmarini","doi":"10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025","DOIUrl":"10.5194/acp-25-3049-2025","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) in different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative Phase 4 (AQMEII4), to identify where the risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and European 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. Targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed for an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. Datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were created for this analysis. These were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2% to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2% to 11.4 %). All models agreed regarding the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both the severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5% to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous-community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9% to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in predictions of both total N deposition and the change in N deposition and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the 2 years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48% to 4.32% from 2009 to 2010), while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2% to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the 2 years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulfur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to the observed wet deposition of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aero","PeriodicalId":8611,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics","volume":"25 5","pages":"3049-3107"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11980814/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143968167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predicted impacts of heterogeneous chemical pathways on particulate sulfur over Fairbanks (Alaska), the Northern Hemisphere, and the Contiguous United States. 非均质化学途径对费尔班克斯(阿拉斯加)、北半球和美国本土颗粒硫的预测影响。
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-3287-2025
Sara L Farrell, Havala O T Pye, Robert Gilliam, George Pouliot, Deanna Huff, Golam Sarwar, William Vizuete, Nicole Briggs, Fengkui Duan, Tao Ma, Shuping Zhang, Kathleen Fahey

A portion of Alaska's Fairbanks North Star Borough was designated as nonattainment for the 2006 24 h fine particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM2.5) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in 2009. PM2.5 NAAQS exceedances in Fairbanks mainly occur during dark and cold winters, when temperature inversions form and trap high emissions at the surface. Sulfate ( SO 4 2 - ), often the second-largest contributor to PM2.5 mass during these wintertime PM episodes, is underpredicted by atmospheric chemical transport models (CTMs). Most CTMs account for primary SO 4 2 - and secondary SO 4 2 - formed via gas-phase oxidation of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ) and in-cloud aqueous oxidation of dissolved S(IV). Dissolution and reaction of SO 2 in aqueous aerosols are generally not included in CTMs but can be represented as heterogeneous reactive uptake and may help better represent the high SO 4 2 - concentrations observed during Fairbanks winters. In addition, hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS), a particulate sulfur species sometimes misidentified as SO 4 2 - , is known to form during Fairbanks winters. Heterogeneous formation of SO 4 2 - and HMS in aerosol liquid water (ALW) was implemented in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. CMAQ simulations were performed for wintertime PM episodes in Fairbanks (2008) as well as over the Northern Hemisphere and Contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2015-2016. The added heterogeneous sulfur chemistry reduced model mean sulfate bias by ~0.6 μg m-3 during a cold winter PM episode in Fairbanks, AK. Improvements in model performance are also seen in Beijing during wintertime haze events (reducing model mean sulfate bias by ~2.9 μgS m-3). This additional sulfur chemistry also improves modeled summertime SO 4 2 - bias in the southeastern US, with implications for future modeling of biogenic organosulfates.

2009年,阿拉斯加州费尔班克斯北星区的一部分地区被指定为2006年24小时直径小于2.5 μm的细颗粒物(PM2.5)不达标国家环境空气质量标准(NAAQS)。费尔班克斯的PM2.5超标主要发生在黑暗和寒冷的冬季,当逆温形成并在地表捕获高排放时。在这些冬季PM事件中,硫酸盐(so42 -)通常是PM2.5质量的第二大贡献者,但大气化学输送模式(CTMs)对其预测不足。大多数CTMs是由二氧化硫(so2)的气相氧化和云内溶解S(IV)的水氧化形成的初级so42 -和次级so42 -组成的。so2在含水气溶胶中的溶解和反应通常不包括在CTMs中,但可以表示为非均质反应性吸收,并可能有助于更好地表示费尔班克斯冬季观察到的高so42 -浓度。此外,费尔班克斯冬季还会形成羟基甲磺酸盐(HMS),这是一种微粒硫,有时会被误认为是so42 -。在社区多尺度空气质量(CMAQ)模拟系统中实现了气溶胶液态水(ALW)中so42 -和HMS的非均相形成。CMAQ模拟了费尔班克斯(2008年)以及北半球和美国本土(2015-2016年)的冬季PM事件。在费尔班克斯,AK寒冷的冬季PM事件中,添加的非均相硫化学减少模型平均硫酸盐偏差约0.6 μg m-3。在冬季雾霾事件期间,北京的模式性能也有所改善(将模式平均硫酸盐偏差降低了约2.9 μgS m-3)。这种额外的硫化学反应也改善了美国东南部夏季模拟的so42 -偏差,这对未来生物源有机硫酸盐的模拟具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Atmospheric oxidation of 1,3-butadiene: influence of seed aerosol acidity and relative humidity on SOA composition and the production of air toxic compounds. 1,3-丁二烯的大气氧化:种子气溶胶酸度和相对湿度对SOA组成和空气有毒化合物产生的影响
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-31 DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-1401-2025
Mohammed Jaoui, Klara Nestorowicz, Krzysztof J Rudzinski, Michael Lewandowski, Tadeusz E Kleindienst, Julio Torres, Ewa Bulska, Witold Danikiewicz, Rafal Szmigielski

This study investigated the effect of relative humidity (RH) on the chemical composition of gas and particle phases formed from the photooxidation of 1,3-butadiene (13BD) in the presence of NO x under acidified and non-acidified seed aerosol. The experiments were conducted in a 14.5 m3 smog chamber operated in a steady-state mode. Products were identified by high-performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, and ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry. More than 50 oxygenated products were identified, including 33 oxygenated organics, 10 organosulfates (OSs), PAN, APAN, glyoxal, formaldehyde, and acrolein. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) mass and reaction products formed depended on RH and on the acidity of the seed aerosol. Based on the Extended Aerosol Inorganics Model (E-AIM), the seed aerosol originated from the acidified and non-acidified solutions was found to exist under aqueous and solid phases, respectively. Although the terms "acidified" and "non-acidified" are true for the solutions from which the seeds were atomized, there are far more fundamental differences between the phase states in which species partition to or from (aqueous/solid), which considerably affects their partitioning and formation mechanisms. SOA mass and most SOA products (i) were higher under acidified seed conditions, where the aerosol particles were deliquescent, than under non-acidified seed conditions, where the aerosol particles did not contain any aqueous phase; (ii) increased with the acidity of the aerosol aqueous phase in the experiments under acidified seed conditions; and (iii) decreased with increasing RH. Glyceric acid, threitols, threonic acids, four dimers, three unknowns, and four organosulfates were among the main species measured under either acidified or non-acidified conditions across all RH levels. Total secondary organic carbon and carbon yield decreased with increasing RH under both acidified and non-acidified seed conditions. The photochemical reactivity of 13BD in our systems decreased with increasing RH and was faster under non-acidified than acidified seed conditions. To determine the contribution of 13BD products to ambient aerosol, we analyzed PM2.5 samples collected at three European monitoring stations located in Poland. The occurrence of several 13BD SOA products (e.g., glyceric acid, tartronic acid, threonic acid, tartaric acid, and OSs) in the field samples suggests that 13BD could contribute to ambient aerosol formation.

本研究研究了在酸化和非酸化种子气溶胶下,相对湿度(RH)对1,3-丁二烯(13BD)在NO存在下光氧化形成的气相和颗粒相化学组成的影响。实验在14.5 m3的雾霾室中进行,以稳态模式运行。采用高效液相色谱法、气相色谱-质谱法和超高效液相色谱-高分辨率质谱法对产物进行鉴定。共鉴定出50多种含氧产物,包括33种含氧有机物、10种有机硫酸盐(OSs)、PAN、APAN、乙二醛、甲醛和丙烯醛。二次有机气溶胶(SOA)的质量和反应产物的形成取决于RH和种子气溶胶的酸度。基于扩展气溶胶无机物模型(E-AIM),发现酸化溶液和非酸化溶液中的种子气溶胶分别存在于水相和固相中。虽然“酸化”和“非酸化”这两个术语对于种子雾化的溶液是正确的,但在物种从水/固两相中分离或分离的相状态之间存在着更根本的差异,这在很大程度上影响了它们的分离和形成机制。SOA质量和大多数SOA产品(i)在酸化种子条件下(气溶胶颗粒潮解)比在未酸化种子条件下(气溶胶颗粒不含任何水相)更高;(ii)在酸化种子条件下,随着气溶胶水相酸度的增加而增加;(iii)随RH的增加而降低。甘油、苏糖醇、苏酸、四种二聚体、三种未知物质和四种有机硫酸盐是在所有RH水平下酸化或非酸化条件下测量的主要物质。在酸化和非酸化种子条件下,总二次有机碳和碳产量均随RH的增加而降低。在我们的体系中,13BD的光化学反应活性随着RH的增加而降低,并且在未酸化的种子条件下比酸化的种子条件下更快。为了确定13BD产品对环境气溶胶的贡献,我们分析了位于波兰的三个欧洲监测站收集的PM2.5样本。在现场样品中出现了几种13BD SOA产物(如甘油酸、酒石酸、苏酸、酒石酸和os),表明13BD可能有助于环境气溶胶的形成。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating processes influencing simulation of local Arctic wintertime anthropogenic pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska, during ALPACA-2022. ALPACA-2022期间影响阿拉斯加费尔班克斯当地北极冬季人为污染模拟的过程。
IF 5.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.5194/acp-25-1063-2025
Natalie Brett, Kathy S Law, Steve R Arnold, Javier G Fochesatto, Jean-Christophe Raut, Tatsuo Onishi, Robert Gilliam, Kathleen Fahey, Deanna Huff, George Pouliot, Brice Barret, Elsa Dieudonné, Roman Pohorsky, Julia Schmale, Andrea Baccarini, Slimane Bekki, Gianluca Pappaccogli, Federico Scoto, Stefano Decesari, Antonio Donateo, Meeta Cesler-Maloney, William Simpson, Patrice Medina, Barbara D'Anna, Brice Temime-Roussel, Joel Savarino, Sarah Albertin, Jingqiu Mao, Becky Alexander, Allison Moon, Peter F DeCarlo, Vanessa Selimovic, Robert Yokelson, Ellis S Robinson

Lagrangian tracer simulations are deployed to investigate processes influencing vertical and horizontal dispersion of anthropogenic pollution in Fairbanks, Alaska, during the Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) 2022 field campaign. Simulated concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide ( S O 2 ), and nitrogen oxides ( N O x ), including surface and elevated sources, are the highest at the surface under very cold stable conditions. Pollution enhancements above the surface (50-300 m) are mainly attributed to elevated power plant emissions. Both surface and elevated sources contribute to Fairbanks' regional pollution that is transported downwind, primarily to the south-west, and may contribute to wintertime Arctic haze. Inclusion of a novel power plant plume rise treatment that considers the presence of surface and elevated temperature inversion layers leads to improved agreement with observed CO and N O x plumes, with discrepancies attributed to, for example, displacement of plumes by modelled winds. At the surface, model results show that observed CO variability is largely driven by meteorology and, to a lesser extent, by emissions, although simulated tracers are sensitive to modelled vertical dispersion. Modelled underestimation of surface N O x during very cold polluted conditions is considerably improved following the inclusion of substantial increases in diesel vehicle N O x emissions at cold temperatures (e.g. a factor of 6 at -30°C). In contrast, overestimation of surface S O 2 is attributed mainly to model deficiencies in vertical dispersion of elevated (5-18 m) space heating emissions. This study highlights the need for improvements to local wintertime Arctic anthropogenic surface and elevated emissions and improved simulation of Arctic stable boundary layers.

在阿拉斯加分层污染和化学分析(ALPACA) 2022现场活动期间,利用拉格朗日示踪剂模拟研究了影响阿拉斯加费尔班克斯地区人为污染垂直和水平扩散的过程。一氧化碳(CO)、二氧化硫(二氧化硫)和氮氧化物(nox)的模拟浓度,包括地表和高空源,在非常冷的稳定条件下在地表是最高的。地表以上(50-300米)的污染加剧主要是由于发电厂排放的增加。地面污染源和高空污染源都是费尔班克斯地区污染的来源,这些污染主要是顺风输送到西南方向,并可能导致冬季北极的雾霾。考虑到地表逆温层和高温逆温层的存在,包含了一种新的电厂羽流上升处理方法,从而改善了与观测到的CO和nox羽流的一致性,其中的差异归因于,例如,由模拟风引起的羽流位移。在地表,模式结果表明观测到的CO变率主要由气象驱动,在较小程度上由排放驱动,尽管模拟示踪剂对模拟的垂直弥散很敏感。在极冷污染条件下,模拟对地表氮氧化物的低估得到了显著改善,因为在低温条件下柴油车辆氮氧化物排放量大幅增加(例如在-30°C时增加了6倍)。相比之下,地表二氧化硫的高估主要归因于模式在高架(5-18 m)空间加热排放垂直分散方面的缺陷。该研究强调了改善北极冬季局部人为地表和增加排放以及改进北极稳定边界层模拟的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Role of chemical production and depositional losses on formaldehyde in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM). 群落区域大气化学多相机制(CRACMM)中甲醛化学生产和沉积损失的作用
IF 5.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-12903-2024
T Nash Skipper, Emma L D'Ambro, Forwood C Wiser, V Faye McNeill, Rebecca H Schwantes, Barron H Henderson, Ivan R Piletic, Colleen B Baublitz, Jesse O Bash, Andrew R Whitehill, Lukas C Valin, Asher P Mouat, Jennifer Kaiser, Glenn M Wolfe, Jason M St Clair, Thomas F Hanisco, Alan Fried, Bryan K Place, Havala O T Pye

Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important air pollutant with direct cancer risk and ozone-forming potential. HCHO sources are complex because HCHO is both directly emitted and produced from oxidation of most gas-phase reactive organic carbon. We update the secondary production of HCHO in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Production of HCHO from isoprene and monoterpenes is increased, correcting an underestimate in the current version. Simulated June-August surface HCHO during peak photochemical production (11:00-15:00 LT, local time) increased by 0.6 ppb (32 %) over the southeastern USA and by 0.2 ppb (13 %) over the contiguous USA. The increased HCHO compares more favorably with satellite-based observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and from aircraft-based observations. Evaluation against hourly surface observations indicates a missing nighttime sink that can be improved by increased nighttime deposition, which reduces June-August nocturnal (20:00-04:00 LT) surface HCHO by 1.1 ppb (36 %) over the southeastern USA and 0.5 ppb (29 %) over the contiguous USA. The ability of CRACMM to capture peak levels of HCHO at midday is improved, particularly at sites in the northeastern USA, while peak levels at sites in the southeastern USA are improved, although still lower than observed. Using established risk assessment methods, lifetime exposure of the population in the contiguous USA (~320 million) to ambient HCHO levels predicted here may result in 6200 lifetime cancer cases, with 40 % from controllable anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides and reactive organic compounds. Chemistry updates will be available in CRACMM version 2 (CRACMM2) in CMAQv5.5.

甲醛(HCHO)是一种重要的空气污染物,具有直接致癌风险和臭氧形成潜力。HCHO的来源很复杂,因为HCHO既可以直接排放,也可以由大多数气相活性有机碳氧化产生。对社区多尺度空气质量(CMAQ)模式中社区区域大气化学多相机制(CRACMM)中HCHO的二次生成进行了更新。从异戊二烯和单萜烯中产生的HCHO增加了,纠正了当前版本中的低估。在光化学生产高峰期(当地时间11:00-15:00 LT),模拟的6 - 8月地面HCHO在美国东南部增加了0.6 ppb(32%),在美国邻近地区增加了0.2 ppb(13%)。增加的HCHO与对流层监测仪(TROPOMI)的卫星观测和飞机观测相比更为有利。对每小时地面观测的评估表明,缺失的夜间汇可以通过增加夜间沉积来改善,这使得6月至8月夜间(20:00-04:00 LT)的地面HCHO在美国东南部减少1.1 ppb(36%),在美国邻近地区减少0.5 ppb(29%)。CRACMM捕捉正午HCHO峰值水平的能力有所提高,特别是在美国东北部的站点,而美国东南部站点的峰值水平有所提高,尽管仍低于观测值。使用已建立的风险评估方法,美国邻近地区的人口(约3.2亿)终生暴露于本文预测的环境HCHO水平,可能导致6200例终生癌症病例,其中40%来自可控的氮氧化物和活性有机化合物的人为排放。化学更新将在CMAQv5.5中的CRACMM版本2 (CRACMM2)中提供。
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引用次数: 0
Using a region-specific ice-nucleating particle parameterization improves the representation of Arctic clouds in a global climate model 使用特定区域的冰核粒子参数化改进全球气候模型对北极云层的表示
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1879
Astrid Bragstad Gjelsvik, Robert Oscar David, Tim Carlsen, Franziska Hellmuth, Stefan Hofer, Zachary McGraw, Harald Sodemann, Trude Storelvmo
Abstract. Projections of global climate change and Arctic amplification are sensitive to the representation of low-level cloud phase in climate models. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are necessary for primary cloud ice formation at temperatures above approximately -38 °C, and thus significantly affect cloud phase and cloud radiative effect. Due to their complex and insufficiently understood variability, INPs constitute an important modelling challenge, especially in remote regions with few observations, such as the Arctic. In this study, INP observations were carried out at Andenes, Norway in March 2021. These observations were used as a basis for an Arctic-specific and purely temperature-dependent INP parameterization, and implemented into the Norwegian Earth System Model. This implementation results in an annual average increase in cloud liquid water path (CLWP) of 70 % for the Arctic, and improves the representation of cloud phase compared to satellite observations. The change in CLWP in boreal autumn and winter is found to likely be the dominant contributor to the annual average increase in net surface cloud radiative effect of 2 W m-2. This large surface flux increase brings the simulation into better agreement with Arctic ground-based measurements. Despite that the model cannot respond fully to the INP parameterization change due to fixed sea surface temperatures, Arctic surface air temperature increases with 0.7 °C in boreal autumn. These findings indicate that INPs could have a significant impact on Arctic climate, and that a region-specific INP parameterization can be a useful tool to improve cloud representation in the Arctic region.
摘要。全球气候变化和北极变暖的预测对气候模式中低空云相的表示非常敏感。冰核粒子(INPs)是温度高于约-38 °C的初级云冰形成的必要条件,因此对云相和云辐射效应有重大影响。由于 INPs 的复杂性和对其变化的了解不足,INPs 构成了一个重要的建模挑战,尤其是在北极等观测资料较少的偏远地区。在这项研究中,2021 年 3 月在挪威安代内斯进行了 INP 观测。以这些观测数据为基础,建立了专门针对北极地区的、纯粹取决于温度的 INP 参数,并将其应用到挪威地球系统模型中。与卫星观测结果相比,该参数的实施使北极地区的云液态水路径(CLWP)年均增加 70%,并改进了云相的表示。研究发现,北半球秋冬季云液态水路径的变化可能是导致地表云净辐射效应年均增加 2 W m-2 的主要原因。地表通量的大幅增加使模拟结果与北极地面测量结果更加一致。尽管由于海面温度固定,模式无法完全响应 INP 参数化的变化,但北冰洋表面气温在北方秋季仍增加了 0.7 ℃。这些研究结果表明,INP 可对北极气候产生重大影响,针对特定地区的 INP 参数化可成为改善北极地区云表示的有用工具。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying decadal trends in deweathered concentrations of criteria air pollutants in Canadian urban atmospheres with machine learning approaches 用机器学习方法识别加拿大城市大气中标准空气污染物脱硫浓度的十年趋势
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7773-2024
Xiaohong Yao, Leiming Zhang
Abstract. This study investigates long-term trends of criteria air pollutants, including NO2, CO, SO2, O3 and PM2.5, and Ox (meaning NO2+O3) measured in 10 Canadian cities during the last 2 to 3 decades. We also investigated associated driving forces in terms of emission reductions, perturbations due to varying weather conditions and large-scale wildfires, as well as changes in O3 sources and sinks. Two machine learning methods, the random forest algorithm and boosted regression trees, were used to extract deweathered mixing ratios (or mass concentrations) of the pollutants. The Mann–Kendall trend test of the deweathered and original annual average concentrations of the pollutants showed that, on the timescale of 20 years or longer, perturbation due to varying weather conditions on the decadal trends of the pollutants are minimal (within ±2 %) in about 70 % of the studied cases, although it might be larger (but at most 16 %) in the remaining cases. NO2, CO and SO2 showed decreasing trends in the last 2 to 3 decades in all the cities except CO in Montréal. O3 showed increasing trends in all the cities except Halifax, mainly due to weakened titration reaction between O3 and NO. Ox, however, showed decreasing trends in all the cities except Victoria, because the increase in O3 is much less than the decrease in NO2. In three of the five eastern Canadian cities, emission reductions dominated the decreasing trends in PM2.5, but no significant trends in PM2.5 were observed in the other two cites. In the five western Canadian cities, increasing or no significant trends in PM2.5 were observed, likely due to unpredictable large-scale wildfires overwhelming or balancing the impacts of emission reductions on PM2.5. In addition, despite improving air quality during the last 2 decades in most cities, an air quality health index of above 10 (representing a very high risk condition) still occasionally occurred after 2010 in western Canadian cities because of the increased large-scale wildfires.
摘要本研究调查了过去 20 到 30 年间在加拿大 10 个城市测量到的标准空气污染物(包括 NO2、CO、SO2、O3 和 PM2.5)和 Ox(指 NO2+O3)的长期趋势。我们还研究了减排、不同天气条件和大规模野火造成的扰动以及 O3 源和汇的变化等方面的相关驱动力。随机森林算法和提升回归树这两种机器学习方法被用来提取污染物的风化混合比(或质量浓度)。对污染物的去风化浓度和原始年平均浓度进行的 Mann-Kendall 趋势测试表明,在 20 年或更长的时间尺度上,在约 70% 的研究案例中,天气条件变化对污染物十年趋势的扰动极小(在 ±2% 以内),但在其余案例中,扰动可能较大(但最多为 16%)。除蒙特利尔的 CO 外,所有城市的 NO2、CO 和 SO2 在过去 20 到 30 年中都呈下降趋势。O3 在除哈利法克斯以外的所有城市都呈上升趋势,这主要是由于 O3 和 NO 之间的滴定反应减弱所致。然而,除维多利亚外,所有城市的氧化物都呈下降趋势,这是因为 O3 的增幅远远小于 NO2 的降幅。在加拿大东部五个城市中的三个城市,PM2.5 的下降趋势主要是排放减少造成的,但在另外两个城市没有观察到 PM2.5 的显著趋势。在加拿大西部的五个城市,观察到 PM2.5 呈上升趋势或无显著趋势,这可能是由于不可预测的大规模野火压倒或平衡了减排对 PM2.5 的影响。此外,尽管大多数城市的空气质量在过去 20 年中有所改善,但由于大规模野火的增加,加拿大西部城市的空气质量健康指数在 2010 年后仍偶尔超过 10(代表极高风险状况)。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of modelled versus observed non-methane volatile organic compounds at European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme sites in Europe 欧洲监测和评价计划欧洲站点非甲烷挥发性有机化合物模型与观测值对比评价
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7699-2024
Yao Ge, Sverre Solberg, Mathew R. Heal, Stefan Reimann, Willem van Caspel, Bryan Hellack, Thérèse Salameh, David Simpson
Abstract. Atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) constitute a wide range of species, acting as precursors to ozone and aerosol formation. Atmospheric chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are crucial to understanding the emissions, distribution, and impacts of VOCs. Given the uncertainties in VOC emissions, lack of evaluation studies, and recent changes in emissions, this work adapts the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP MSC-W) CTM to evaluate emission inventories in Europe. Here we undertake the first intensive model–measurement comparison of VOCs in 2 decades. The modelled surface concentrations are evaluated both spatially and temporally, using measurements from the regular EMEP monitoring network in 2018 and 2019, as well as a 2022 campaign. To achieve this, we utilised the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory to derive explicit emission profiles for individual species and employed a tracer method to produce pure concentrations that are directly comparable to observations. The degree to which the modelled and measured VOCs agree varies depending on the specific species. The model successfully captures the overall spatial and temporal variations of major alkanes (e.g. ethane, n-butane) and unsaturated species (e.g. ethene, benzene) but less so for propane, i-butane, and ethyne. This discrepancy underscores potential issues in the boundary conditions for the latter species and in their primary emissions from, in particular, the solvent and road transport sectors. Specifically, potential missing propane emissions and issues with its boundary conditions are highlighted by large model underestimations and smaller propane-to-ethane ratios compared to the measurement. Meanwhile, both the model and measurements show strong linear correlations among butane isomers and among pentane isomers, indicating common sources for these pairs of isomers. However, modelled ratios of i-butane to n-butane and i-pentane to n-pentane are approximately one-third of the measured ratios, which is largely driven by significant emissions of n-butane and n-pentane from the solvent sector. This suggests issues with the speciation profile of the solvent sector, underrepresented contributions from transport and fuel evaporation sectors in current inventories, or both. Furthermore, the modelled ethene-to-ethyne and benzene-to-ethyne ratios differ significantly from measured ratios. The different model performance strongly points to shortcomings in the spatial and temporal patterns and magnitudes of ethyne emissions, especially during winter. For OVOCs, the modelled and measured concentrations of methanal and methylglyoxal show a good agreement, despite a moderate underestimation by the model in summer. This discrepancy could be attributed to an underestimation of contributions from biogenic sources or possibly a model overestimation of their photolytic loss in summer. However, the insufficiency of suitabl
摘要大气中的挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)种类繁多,是臭氧和气溶胶形成的前体物质。大气化学和传输模型(CTM)对于了解挥发性有机化合物的排放、分布和影响至关重要。鉴于挥发性有机化合物排放的不确定性、评估研究的缺乏以及近期排放的变化,这项工作采用了欧洲监测与评估计划气象综合中心-西部(EMEP MSC-W)的 CTM 来评估欧洲的排放清单。在此,我们对二十年来的挥发性有机化合物进行了首次深入的模型-测量比较。利用 2018 年和 2019 年 EMEP 常规监测网络的测量数据以及 2022 年的测量数据,从空间和时间两方面对模拟的地表浓度进行了评估。为此,我们利用英国国家大气排放清单得出了各个物种的明确排放曲线,并采用示踪法得出了与观测结果直接可比的纯浓度。模型和测量的挥发性有机化合物的一致程度因具体物种而异。该模型成功地捕捉到了主要烷烃(如乙烷、正丁烷)和不饱和物质(如乙烯、苯)的总体时空变化,但对丙烷、i-丁烷和乙炔的捕捉效果较差。这种差异凸显了后一种物质的边界条件及其主要排放(尤其是溶剂和道路运输部门)中的潜在问题。具体来说,与测量结果相比,模型低估了大量丙烷,丙烷与乙烷的比率也较小,这突出了丙烷排放的潜在遗漏及其边界条件问题。同时,模型和测量结果都显示丁烷异构体和戊烷异构体之间存在很强的线性相关,这表明这对异构体存在共同的来源。不过,模型中的正丁烷与i-丁烷之比以及i-戊烷与正戊烷之比约为测量值的三分之一,这主要是由于溶剂行业排放了大量的正丁烷和正戊烷。这表明溶剂行业的规格概况存在问题,目前的清单中未充分反映运输和燃料蒸发行业的贡献,或两者兼而有之。此外,模拟的乙烯-乙炔和苯-乙炔比率与测量的比率有很大差异。模型的不同表现有力地说明了乙炔排放的时空模式和规模存在缺陷,尤其是在冬季。在 OVOCs 方面,甲缩醛和甲基乙二醛的模拟浓度和测量浓度显示出良好的一致性,尽管模型在夏季适度低估了其浓度。造成这种差异的原因可能是低估了生物源的贡献,也可能是模型高估了它们在夏季的光解损失。然而,由于缺乏合适的测量数据,对其他 OVOCs 的评估受到了限制。最后,与使用排放清单和预测中心(CEIP)清单进行的模拟相比,使用 CAMS 清单进行的模型模拟与测量结果的一致性略好。这种改进可能是由于 CAMS 清单对道路运输行业进行了详细划分,包括相关的特定子行业排放概况。考虑到这一改进,以及之前提到的对模型中各种挥发性有机化合物比例估计偏差的担忧,未来的工作应侧重于更详细地细分主要排放部门(如溶剂),并完善其规格剖面,以提高模型的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Weak surface temperature effects of recent reductions in shipping SO2 emissions, with quantification confounded by internal variability 最近航运业二氧化硫排放量的减少对地表温度的影响较弱,其量化受到内部变异性的影响
IF 6.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1946
Duncan Watson-Parris, Laura J. Wilcox, Camilla W. Stjern, Robert J. Allen, Geeta Persad, Massimo A. Bollasina, Annica M. L. Ekman, Carley E. Iles, Manoj Joshi, Marianne T. Lund, Daniel McCoy, Daniel Westervelt, Andrew Williams, Bjørn H. Samset
Abstract. In 2020 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented strict new regulations on the emissions of sulphate aerosol from the world's shipping fleet. This can be expected to lead to a reduction in aerosol-driven cooling, unmasking a portion of greenhouse gas warming. The magnitude of the effect is uncertain, however, due to the large remaining uncertainties in the climate response to aerosols. Here, we investigate this question using an 18-member ensemble of fully coupled climate simulations evenly sampling key modes of climate variability with the NCAR CESM2 model. We show that while there is a clear physical response of the climate system to the IMO regulations, including a surface temperature increase, we do not find global mean temperature influence that is significantly different from zero. The 20-year average global mean warming for 2020–2040 is +0.03 °C, with a 5–95 % confidence range of [-0.09, 0.19], reflecting the weakness of the perturbation relative to internal variability. We do, however, find a robust, non-zero regional temperature response in part of the North Atlantic. We also find that the maximum annual-mean ensemble-mean warming occurs around a decade after the perturbation in 2029, which means that the IMO regulations have likely had very limited influence on observed global warming to date. We further discuss our results in light of other, recent publications that have reached different conclusions. Overall, while the IMO regulations may contribute up to at 0.16 °C [-0.17, 0.52] to the global mean surface temperature in individual years during this decade, consistent with some early studies, such a response is unlikely to have been discernible above internal variability by the end of 2023 and is in fact consistent with zero throughout the 2020–2040 period.
摘要2020 年,国际海事组织(IMO)对全球船队的硫酸盐气溶胶排放实施了严格的新规定。预计这将导致气溶胶驱动的冷却减少,从而揭开温室气体变暖的部分面纱。然而,由于气溶胶对气候的反应还存在很大的不确定性,因此这种影响的程度还不确定。在这里,我们利用 NCAR CESM2 模型对气候变率的关键模式进行均匀采样,并使用 18 个成员的完全耦合气候模拟集合来研究这个问题。我们的研究表明,虽然气候系统对《国际海事组织条例》有明显的物理响应,包括地表温度上升,但我们并没有发现全球平均温度的影响与零有显著差异。2020-2040 年的 20 年平均全球平均升温幅度为 +0.03 °C,5-95 % 的置信区间为 [-0.09, 0.19],这反映了相对于内部变率的微弱扰动。不过,我们确实发现北大西洋部分地区的区域温度响应强劲,不为零。我们还发现,最大年均集合平均升温发生在扰动发生后的十年左右,即 2029 年,这意味着国际海事组织的规定对迄今观测到的全球变暖的影响可能非常有限。我们还根据最近发表的其他文章进一步讨论了我们的结果,这些文章得出了不同的结论。总体而言,虽然国际海事组织条例可能在这十年间的个别年份对全球平均地表温度产生 0.16 °C[-0.17,0.52]的影响,这与一些早期研究一致,但到 2023 年底,这种影响不太可能高于内部变率,事实上,在整个 2020-2040 年期间,这种影响为零。
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Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
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