Course grades as a signal of student achievement: Evidence of grade inflation before and after COVID-19

There is widespread speculation and some evidence that grades and grading standards changed during the pandemic, making higher grades relatively easier to achieve. In this paper we use longitudinal data from students in Washington State to investigate middle and high school grades in math, science, and English pre- and post-pandemic. Our descriptive analysis of the data reveals that—in accordance with state guidance—almost no students received an F in the spring of 2020, and the share of students receiving A's jumped dramatically. While English and science grades returned to pre-pandemic levels in the years following the 2019/2020 school year, grades in math did not. To understand how well grades reflect objective measures of learning we regress test scores on student grades separately by subject and year and find that the strength of the relationship between grades and test scores has diminished over time in math. The diminishment of the signal value of grades may be a concern given that schools and families use grades as a signal of when students are ready to progress and when they might need more help.