The administrative capacity of a government matters enormously to public policy design and implementation. But it is usually taken for granted in public policy settings, a background variable left largely unconsidered. This essay argues that the fields of public policy and public management need to more directly consider threats to state capacity. A creeping threat is a tendency towards proceduralism that layers in rules, veto points, and delay that constrains state actors from achieving critical goals. A more immediate threat for the American administrative state is a dramatic increase in the politicization of public service delivery. This new model of politicization pursued by President Trump features three key attributes: 1) a personalist infrastructure of presidential power that centers on loyalty above all other values; 2) governing by fear via conspiratorial messaging towards the public sector and threatening individual public servants; and 3) a weakening of civil service protections that blurs the traditional distinction between political appointees and civil servants and enables purges of those deemed to be disloyal.
{"title":"Rescuing state capacity: Proceduralism, the new politicization, and public policy","authors":"Donald P. Moynihan","doi":"10.1002/pam.22673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22673","url":null,"abstract":"The administrative capacity of a government matters enormously to public policy design and implementation. But it is usually taken for granted in public policy settings, a background variable left largely unconsidered. This essay argues that the fields of public policy and public management need to more directly consider threats to state capacity. A creeping threat is a tendency towards proceduralism that layers in rules, veto points, and delay that constrains state actors from achieving critical goals. A more immediate threat for the American administrative state is a dramatic increase in the politicization of public service delivery. This new model of politicization pursued by President Trump features three key attributes: 1) a personalist infrastructure of presidential power that centers on loyalty above all other values; 2) governing by fear via conspiratorial messaging towards the public sector and threatening individual public servants; and 3) a weakening of civil service protections that blurs the traditional distinction between political appointees and civil servants and enables purges of those deemed to be disloyal.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143427255","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Notes from the Editor","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22674","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez, Gabrielle Pepin, Kane Schrader
Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America's sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states’ work requirements. However, researchers’ and policymakers’ understanding of how FRA will impact states’ compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly available data. We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that we collected to administrative caseload and expenditure data to document several strategies that states currently use to comply with federal work requirements. We estimate that FRA will increase the stringency of work requirements in 23 states and that five states will begin to fall short of requirements. We note that several compliance strategies available to these states do not encourage work. We discuss changes to states’ work requirements that would promote better long-term economic and labor market outcomes for TANF recipients.
{"title":"Strengthening work requirements? Forecasting impacts of reforming cash assistance rules","authors":"Josep M. Nadal-Fernandez, Gabrielle Pepin, Kane Schrader","doi":"10.1002/pam.22668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22668","url":null,"abstract":"Work requirements are perhaps the most controversial aspect of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, America's sole federal cash assistance program for low-income families with children. In 2025, for the first time in nearly 20 years, the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (FRA) will implement policy changes intended to strengthen states’ work requirements. However, researchers’ and policymakers’ understanding of how FRA will impact states’ compliance with federal requirements is hampered by a lack of research and publicly available data. We tie information from reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services that we collected to administrative caseload and expenditure data to document several strategies that states currently use to comply with federal work requirements. We estimate that FRA will increase the stringency of work requirements in 23 states and that five states will begin to fall short of requirements. We note that several compliance strategies available to these states do not encourage work. We discuss changes to states’ work requirements that would promote better long-term economic and labor market outcomes for TANF recipients.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The corporatization of local public services is an increasingly common public management reform worldwide. This study investigates whether a shift from in-house to not-for-profit corporatized service provision can result in improvements across multiple dimensions of performance. To do so, we examine the staggered adoption of Arms-Length Management Organizations (ALMOs) to provide social housing by a third of English local governments during the period 2000 to 2008. Utilizing a Differences-in-Differences (DiD) with Multiple Time Periods (MTP) approach, we find that corporatized social housing outperformed in-house provision on service quality, citizen satisfaction, and environmental sustainability, with little evidence of worse achievements on other performance dimensions. Event history analysis suggests performance benefits emerged around 2 years after corporatization occurred. Our study therefore implies that not-for-profit corporatization is potentially an effective strategy for improving local public service performance.
{"title":"Does not-for-profit corporatization of local public services improve performance?","authors":"José M. Alonso, Rhys Andrews","doi":"10.1002/pam.22667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22667","url":null,"abstract":"The corporatization of local public services is an increasingly common public management reform worldwide. This study investigates whether a shift from in-house to not-for-profit corporatized service provision can result in improvements across multiple dimensions of performance. To do so, we examine the staggered adoption of Arms-Length Management Organizations (ALMOs) to provide social housing by a third of English local governments during the period 2000 to 2008. Utilizing a Differences-in-Differences (DiD) with Multiple Time Periods (MTP) approach, we find that corporatized social housing outperformed in-house provision on service quality, citizen satisfaction, and environmental sustainability, with little evidence of worse achievements on other performance dimensions. Event history analysis suggests performance benefits emerged around 2 years after corporatization occurred. Our study therefore implies that not-for-profit corporatization is potentially an effective strategy for improving local public service performance.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143056830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"","authors":"","doi":"10.1002/pam.22651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22651","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"44 1","pages":"7-11"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143112800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Social infrastructure and left‐behind places by JohnTomaney, MaeveBlackman, LucyNatarajan, DimitriosPanayotopoulos‐Tsiros, FlorenceSutcliffe‐Braithwaite, and MyfanwyTaylor. Taylor & Francis, 2024, 108 pages. $48.99 (paperback). ISBN 978‐1032710051.","authors":"Ihsan Manshur Putra, Rahayu Lestari, Fauziah Istiqomah Abdunnafi","doi":"10.1002/pam.22666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22666","url":null,"abstract":"Click on the article title to read more.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vitaly Meursault, Daniel Moulton, Larry Santucci, Nathan Schor
Improving fairness across policy domains often comes at a cost. However, as machine learning (ML) advances lead to more accurate predictive models in fields like lending, education, healthcare, and criminal justice, policymakers may find themselves better positioned to implement effective fairness measures. Using credit bureau data and ML, we show that setting different lending thresholds for low‐ and moderate‐income (LMI) neighborhoods relative to non‐LMI neighborhoods can equalize the rate at which equally creditworthy borrowers receive credit. ML models alone better identify creditworthy individuals in all groups but remain more accurate for the majority group. A policy that equalizes access via separate thresholds imposes a cost on lenders, but this cost is outweighed by the substantial gains from ML. This approach aligns with the motivation behind existing laws such as the Community Reinvestment Act, which encourages lenders to meet the credit needs of underserved communities. Targeted Special Purpose Credit Programs could provide the opportunity to prototype and test these ideas in the field.
{"title":"One threshold doesn't fit all: Tailoring machine learning predictions of consumer default for lower‐income areas","authors":"Vitaly Meursault, Daniel Moulton, Larry Santucci, Nathan Schor","doi":"10.1002/pam.22662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22662","url":null,"abstract":"Improving fairness across policy domains often comes at a cost. However, as machine learning (ML) advances lead to more accurate predictive models in fields like lending, education, healthcare, and criminal justice, policymakers may find themselves better positioned to implement effective fairness measures. Using credit bureau data and ML, we show that setting different lending thresholds for low‐ and moderate‐income (LMI) neighborhoods relative to non‐LMI neighborhoods can equalize the rate at which equally creditworthy borrowers receive credit. ML models alone better identify creditworthy individuals in all groups but remain more accurate for the majority group. A policy that equalizes access via separate thresholds imposes a cost on lenders, but this cost is outweighed by the substantial gains from ML. This approach aligns with the motivation behind existing laws such as the Community Reinvestment Act, which encourages lenders to meet the credit needs of underserved communities. Targeted Special Purpose Credit Programs could provide the opportunity to prototype and test these ideas in the field.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"114 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142908529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Decentralized implementation of means-tested social assistance programs requires significant organizational capacity among local governments. For other types of local public service, like refuse collection and utilities provision, inter-municipal cooperation has proven capable of reducing the cost of subnational policy implementation, especially for smaller municipalities. But few impact evaluations test whether the same benefits can be achieved for less capital-intensive and more co-produced services, like social assistance. Moreover, most evaluations focus on production costs alone, despite the potential trade-off with service quality. We analyze panel data describing both the cost and quality of housing allowance administration for 314 local authorities in England between 2009 and 2019, during which time 80 switched from autonomous services to inter-municipal cooperation. Using coarsened exact matching and stacked difference-in-differences, we find no evidence of short-term savings after cooperation, and only weak indications thereafter. We also observe declining processing speeds, increased maladministration, and signs of reduced payment accuracy, though mostly these are temporary effects. Altogether, these results suggest that, in this setting, inter-municipal cooperation may be unsuited to labor-intensive public services; that short- and long-term effects can differ; and that, even in the absence of a profit motive, quality shading remains a risk in cooperation reforms.
{"title":"The effect of inter-municipal cooperation on social assistance programs: Evidence from housing allowances in England","authors":"Thomas Elston, Germà Bel, Han Wang","doi":"10.1002/pam.22664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22664","url":null,"abstract":"Decentralized implementation of means-tested social assistance programs requires significant organizational capacity among local governments. For other types of local public service, like refuse collection and utilities provision, inter-municipal cooperation has proven capable of reducing the cost of subnational policy implementation, especially for smaller municipalities. But few impact evaluations test whether the same benefits can be achieved for less capital-intensive and more co-produced services, like social assistance. Moreover, most evaluations focus on production costs alone, despite the potential trade-off with service quality. We analyze panel data describing both the cost and quality of housing allowance administration for 314 local authorities in England between 2009 and 2019, during which time 80 switched from autonomous services to inter-municipal cooperation. Using coarsened exact matching and stacked difference-in-differences, we find no evidence of short-term savings after cooperation, and only weak indications thereafter. We also observe declining processing speeds, increased maladministration, and signs of reduced payment accuracy, though mostly these are temporary effects. Altogether, these results suggest that, in this setting, inter-municipal cooperation may be unsuited to labor-intensive public services; that short- and long-term effects can differ; and that, even in the absence of a profit motive, quality shading remains a risk in cooperation reforms.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the link between Southwest U.S. border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000 to 2024). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings strongly align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the President's party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools.
{"title":"Not a border crisis, but a labor market crisis: The often overlooked “pull” factor of U.S. border crossings","authors":"Dany Bahar","doi":"10.1002/pam.22665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22665","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the link between Southwest U.S. border crossings and labor market tightness, measured by the job openings to unemployed ratio, over nearly 25 years (2000 to 2024). Analyzing monthly data, it finds a strong positive correlation, suggesting that increased border crossings strongly align with greater job availability. Exploiting data across different presidential administrations reveals no statistically significant differences in this relationship, regardless of the President's party. The findings suggest a natural economic adjustment mechanism in which crossings naturally decrease as the labor market cools.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"83 6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142873884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We evaluate the long-term effects of receiving the Uruguayan Plan de Atención Nacional a la Emergencia Social (PANES), a large unconditional cash transfer program, on outcomes for young and unborn children. We use a rich dataset that matches program administrative data to vital natality data and educational records 8 to 12 years after the beginning of the program. Overall, we find small and barely significant effects on educational attainment and delay. Among children exposed to the program during early childhood (between ages 0 and 5), the results show significant beneficial effects for those with low birth weight.
{"title":"Long-term impacts on education of a cash transfer during early life","authors":"Juanita Bloomfield, José María Cabrera","doi":"10.1002/pam.22663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22663","url":null,"abstract":"We evaluate the long-term effects of receiving the Uruguayan <i>Plan de Atención Nacional a la Emergencia Social</i> (PANES), a large unconditional cash transfer program, on outcomes for young and unborn children. We use a rich dataset that matches program administrative data to vital natality data and educational records 8 to 12 years after the beginning of the program. Overall, we find small and barely significant effects on educational attainment and delay. Among children exposed to the program during early childhood (between ages 0 and 5), the results show significant beneficial effects for those with low birth weight.","PeriodicalId":48105,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Analysis and Management","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142849546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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