Lifetime Medical Spending Attributed to Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Medicare Beneficiaries: A Longitudinal Study Using 1999-2019 National Medicare Claims.

Objective: To estimate lifetime incremental medical spending attributed to incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Medicare beneficiaries by age at diagnosis, sex, and race/ethnicity.

Research design and methods: We used the 1999-2019 100% Medicare fee-for-service claims database to identify a cohort of beneficiaries with newly diagnosed T2D in 2001-2003 using ICD codes. We matched this cohort with a nondiabetes cohort using a propensity score method and then followed the two cohorts until death, disenrollment, or the end of 2019. Lifetime medical spending for each cohort was the sum of expected annual spending, a product of actual annual spending multiplied by the annual survival rate, from the age at T2D diagnosis to death. Lifetime incremental medical spending was calculated as the difference in lifetime medical spending between the two cohorts. All spending was standardized to 2019 U.S. dollars.

Results: Medicare beneficiaries with newly diagnosed T2D, despite having a shorter life expectancy, had 36-40% higher lifetime medical spending compared with a comparable group without diabetes. Lifetime incremental medical spending ranged from $16,115 to $122,146, depending on age at diagnosis, sex, and race/ethnicity, declining with age at diagnosis, and being highest for Asian/Pacific Islander and non-Hispanic Black beneficiaries.

Conclusions: The large lifetime incremental medical spending associated with incident T2D underscores the need for preventing T2D among Medicare beneficiaries. Our results could be used to estimate the potential financial benefit of T2D prevention programs both overall and among subgroups of beneficiaries.