Pingping Shao , Jun Feng , Jiamin Lu , Zhixian Tang
{"title":"用于径流不确定性预测的数据驱动和知识指导去噪扩散概率模型","authors":"Pingping Shao , Jun Feng , Jiamin Lu , Zhixian Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131556","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The existing medium and long-term runoff prediction methods, which are based on data-driven and knowledge-guided methods, are associated with inherent limitations, and chaotic phenomena in runoff prediction models often leads to oscillation in the prediction error, affecting the robustness of the prediction. A knowledge-guided denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DK-RDDPM) that introduces physical theory to guide constraint quantification and obtain effective runoff uncertainty prediction results is therefore proposed in this study. The main advantage of this model is that the physical randomness in the runoff prediction process can be captured and combined with the Saint-Venant process to guide model optimization and realize more accurate medium- and long-term runoff prediction. The main contributions of this study are the establishment of a dynamic runoff probabilistic prediction model with stochastic quantification characteristics that includes the prediction uncertainty over time, and modelling of the physical constraint boundary of runoff prediction from the perspective of partial differentiation. The effectiveness of the DK-RDDPM was verified by predicting runoff in the Qijiang and Tunxi Basins in China. The results show that: 1) Encoding the physical random uncertainty operator in runoff prediction into the network of the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) effectively captures the physically complex implicit randomness of the process, thus reducing the error that results from randomness in runoff prediction. 2) The constraint matrix that is formed using the Saint-Venant equation and the prediction matrix are layered and projected, with the fluctuation range of the constraints in each step adjusted in the optimization direction within a certain random threshold range. 3) The DK-RDDPM shows superior performance to the benchmark models, even under the influence of different noise interference factors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":362,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Data-driven and knowledge-guided denoising diffusion probabilistic model for runoff uncertainty prediction\",\"authors\":\"Pingping Shao , Jun Feng , Jiamin Lu , Zhixian Tang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131556\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The existing medium and long-term runoff prediction methods, which are based on data-driven and knowledge-guided methods, are associated with inherent limitations, and chaotic phenomena in runoff prediction models often leads to oscillation in the prediction error, affecting the robustness of the prediction. A knowledge-guided denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DK-RDDPM) that introduces physical theory to guide constraint quantification and obtain effective runoff uncertainty prediction results is therefore proposed in this study. The main advantage of this model is that the physical randomness in the runoff prediction process can be captured and combined with the Saint-Venant process to guide model optimization and realize more accurate medium- and long-term runoff prediction. The main contributions of this study are the establishment of a dynamic runoff probabilistic prediction model with stochastic quantification characteristics that includes the prediction uncertainty over time, and modelling of the physical constraint boundary of runoff prediction from the perspective of partial differentiation. The effectiveness of the DK-RDDPM was verified by predicting runoff in the Qijiang and Tunxi Basins in China. The results show that: 1) Encoding the physical random uncertainty operator in runoff prediction into the network of the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) effectively captures the physically complex implicit randomness of the process, thus reducing the error that results from randomness in runoff prediction. 2) The constraint matrix that is formed using the Saint-Venant equation and the prediction matrix are layered and projected, with the fluctuation range of the constraints in each step adjusted in the optimization direction within a certain random threshold range. 3) The DK-RDDPM shows superior performance to the benchmark models, even under the influence of different noise interference factors.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":362,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Hydrology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Hydrology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169424009521\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169424009521","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Data-driven and knowledge-guided denoising diffusion probabilistic model for runoff uncertainty prediction
The existing medium and long-term runoff prediction methods, which are based on data-driven and knowledge-guided methods, are associated with inherent limitations, and chaotic phenomena in runoff prediction models often leads to oscillation in the prediction error, affecting the robustness of the prediction. A knowledge-guided denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DK-RDDPM) that introduces physical theory to guide constraint quantification and obtain effective runoff uncertainty prediction results is therefore proposed in this study. The main advantage of this model is that the physical randomness in the runoff prediction process can be captured and combined with the Saint-Venant process to guide model optimization and realize more accurate medium- and long-term runoff prediction. The main contributions of this study are the establishment of a dynamic runoff probabilistic prediction model with stochastic quantification characteristics that includes the prediction uncertainty over time, and modelling of the physical constraint boundary of runoff prediction from the perspective of partial differentiation. The effectiveness of the DK-RDDPM was verified by predicting runoff in the Qijiang and Tunxi Basins in China. The results show that: 1) Encoding the physical random uncertainty operator in runoff prediction into the network of the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) effectively captures the physically complex implicit randomness of the process, thus reducing the error that results from randomness in runoff prediction. 2) The constraint matrix that is formed using the Saint-Venant equation and the prediction matrix are layered and projected, with the fluctuation range of the constraints in each step adjusted in the optimization direction within a certain random threshold range. 3) The DK-RDDPM shows superior performance to the benchmark models, even under the influence of different noise interference factors.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Hydrology publishes original research papers and comprehensive reviews in all the subfields of the hydrological sciences including water based management and policy issues that impact on economics and society. These comprise, but are not limited to the physical, chemical, biogeochemical, stochastic and systems aspects of surface and groundwater hydrology, hydrometeorology and hydrogeology. Relevant topics incorporating the insights and methodologies of disciplines such as climatology, water resource systems, hydraulics, agrohydrology, geomorphology, soil science, instrumentation and remote sensing, civil and environmental engineering are included. Social science perspectives on hydrological problems such as resource and ecological economics, environmental sociology, psychology and behavioural science, management and policy analysis are also invited. Multi-and interdisciplinary analyses of hydrological problems are within scope. The science published in the Journal of Hydrology is relevant to catchment scales rather than exclusively to a local scale or site.