Can green finance promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy system? New evidence from city-level data in China.

This study explores the comprehensive effects of green finance (GF) on the low-carbon transition of the energy system (LTES) by analyzing panel data from 281 cities in China from 2006 to 2021. It is found that GF significantly reduces overall energy consumption and exhibits a U-shaped association with energy efficiency, while its relationship with the energy consumption structure is inverted U-shaped. After accounting for endogeneity in the robustness tests, these findings remain consistent and are therefore deemed reliable. A mechanistic analysis reveals that GF promotes industrial upgrading, technological progress, and economic agglomeration, collectively facilitating the LTES. The impact of GF on LTES shows considerable variation among regions, influenced by their levels of economic growth, extents of marketization, and governmental environmental preferences. Our findings provide new evidence for the relationship between GF and LTES, offering a scientific basis for formulating GF policies to accelerate this transformation.