Time will tear us apart: European electoral participation dynamics in longitudinal perspective

This research note investigates the development of turnout gaps in Europe, associated with four key determinants of electoral participation: income, education, age, and gender. We extend previous research on unequal turnout in two main ways. First, we include longer time series. Relying on the World Political Cleavages and Inequality Database, we are able to estimate turnout gaps in 240 elections from 20 countries, from the 1950s to 2020. Second, we suggest a method to compare education and income levels across elections, which is a prerequisite for estimating changes over time in their effects. We find clear evidence of growing turnout gaps linked with education, income, and age, while the gender gap has become close to null. Our findings are robust across a number of alternative model specifications, and they are consistent with results, for the more recent period, based on the European Social Survey.