增长的双面性:工业化、金融发展和自然资源租金对中国经济的线性和非线性影响

IF 10.2 2区 经济学 N/A ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Resources Policy Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI:10.1016/j.resourpol.2024.105179
Xiaoli Zhang , Maaz Ahmad , Xiao Gu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

关于经济增长驱动指标的文献显示了不同的研究结果,通常得出的是对称关系。本研究旨在观察主要相关指标的线性和非线性影响。研究结果显示,工业增加值对中国短期和长期经济增长的影响是正向的,而城市化则是负向的。相反,自然资源租金没有表现出直接的积极影响,但有助于长期经济增长。工业增加值和金融发展的正向变化会在短期和长期内对经济增长产生更深远的正向冲击。同时,它们的负向变化会降低中国的经济增长。无论是正向还是负向,自然资源租金的波动都会促进经济增长,并在短期和长期内产生不对称的动态影响。此外,城市化在负向冲击时会促进经济扩张,但在正向冲击时,城市化在短期和长期都缺乏意义。此外,频域因果关系认可了结构转型。在同样的情况下,小波分解的显著差异显示出所有序列的显著波动,从而促进了经济增长。为了促进经济的直接和持续增长,必须投资于注重附加值的产业,并完善城市规划,以平衡特大城市和较小的新兴城市地区之间的增长。
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The Dual Faces of growth: Linear and non-linear effects of industrialization, financial development and natural resource rents on China's economy

The literature on driving indicators of economic growth shows diverse findings and commonly derives symmetric relationships. The current research aims to observe the linear and non-linear influence of primary indicators of interest. The results reveal that industrial value-added positively, while urbanization negatively influences China's short and long-term economic growth. Conversely, natural resource rents exhibit no immediate positive effect but contribute to long-term economic growth. A positive change in industrial value and financial development enhances economic growth with a more profound positive shock in the short and long run. Simultaneously, their negative change reduces the economic growth in China. Whether positive or negative, fluctuations in natural resource rents contribute to economic growth, waving the asymmetric dynamic in the short and long run. Further, urbanization boosts economic expansion during negative shocks but lacks significance during positive shocks in both short and long runs. Moreover, the frequency domain causation approves the structural transformation. In the same scenario, notable discrepancies in wavelet decomposition show significant fluctuations across all series, contributing to economic growth. To boost both immediate and sustained economic growth, investing in industries focused on value addition and refining urban planning to balance growth between megacities and smaller emerging urban areas is essential.

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来源期刊
Resources Policy
Resources Policy ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-
CiteScore
13.40
自引率
23.50%
发文量
602
审稿时长
69 days
期刊介绍: Resources Policy is an international journal focused on the economics and policy aspects of mineral and fossil fuel extraction, production, and utilization. It targets individuals in academia, government, and industry. The journal seeks original research submissions analyzing public policy, economics, social science, geography, and finance in the fields of mining, non-fuel minerals, energy minerals, fossil fuels, and metals. Mineral economics topics covered include mineral market analysis, price analysis, project evaluation, mining and sustainable development, mineral resource rents, resource curse, mineral wealth and corruption, mineral taxation and regulation, strategic minerals and their supply, and the impact of mineral development on local communities and indigenous populations. The journal specifically excludes papers with agriculture, forestry, or fisheries as their primary focus.
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