病媒控制、治疗和大众宣传对登革热传播动态影响的数学建模

Boniface Zacharia Naaly , Theresia Marijani , Augustino Isdory , Jufren Zakayo Ndendya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

登革热是一个重要的公共卫生问题,影响着全球约 40% 的人口。针对登革热病的动态变化,我们建立了一个数学模型,其中包含三种控制策略:病媒控制、治疗和大众宣传。利用雅各布矩阵对无疾病平衡(DFE)进行了稳定性分析。结果发现,当有效繁殖数小于 1 时,无病平衡点在局部和全局上都趋于稳定;反之,则不稳定。此外,还确定了一个地方性平衡点(EEP)。利用 Lyapunov 方法对 EEP 进行的全局稳定性分析表明,当 Re>1 时,它是全局渐近稳定的;否则,它是不稳定的。分岔分析表明,模型系统呈现正向分岔。此外,对有效繁殖数量的敏感性分析表明,最敏感的参数是叮咬率(b)和杀虫剂效力(δ)。因此,结果表明,为了减少新的登革热病例,应实施降低叮咬率的干预策略,如驱蚊剂和使用杀虫剂杀灭蚊子。此外,还对包含病媒控制、治疗和大众宣传的扩展模型进行了模拟。结果表明,病媒控制、治疗和大众宣传相结合,比任何单一或成对的干预措施对登革热的控制都有更积极的影响。因此,为有效控制登革热,应同时实施这三种控制措施,特别是在登革热流行地区。
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Mathematical modeling of the effects of vector control, treatment and mass awareness on the transmission dynamics of dengue fever

Dengue fever is a vital public health concern that affects about 40% of the world’s population. To address the dynamics of dengue disease, a mathematical model was formulated by incorporating three control strategies: vector control, treatment, and mass awareness. A stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) was conducted using the Jacobian matrix. The DFE was found to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when the effective reproductive number was less than one; otherwise, it was unstable. Additionally, an endemic equilibrium point (EEP) was identified. The global stability analysis of the EEP, performed using the Lyapunov method, showed that it is globally asymptotically stable whenever Re>1; otherwise, it is unstable. Bifurcation analysis revealed that the model system exhibits a forward bifurcation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number revealed that the most sensitive parameters are the biting rate (b) and insecticide efficacy (δ). Therefore, the results suggest that, in order to reduce new dengue cases, intervention strategies that decrease the biting rate, such as mosquito repellents and the use of insecticides to kill mosquitoes, should be implemented. Moreover, simulations were conducted for the extended model with vector control, treatment, and mass awareness. The results showed that the combination of vector control, treatment, and mass awareness has a more positive impact on the control of dengue fever than any single or paired intervention. Thus, for effective control of dengue fever, the three control measures should be implemented simultaneously, especially in endemic areas.

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