Shortest or locally quickest? A prediction-based approach for evacuation choice simulation between multiple staircases

Staircase choice is one of the most critical factors leading to the difference in pedestrian flow and evacuation routes in buildings with multiple staircases. Neither the shortest path to the building exit nor the locally quickest path to the nearest staircase can represent the natural mode of evacuation path choices for an authentic evacuation simulation. Thus, a prediction-based approach is established to predict and simulate evacuation choices, which helps to address three key issues: (1) extracting evacuation data through a controlled experiment; (2) establishing a Logit model for staircase choice prediction based on experimental data; (3) developing a prediction-based cellular automaton model. The proposed approach has achieved the coupling between choice prediction and evacuation simulation. A comparison with Pathfinder software is conducted to reveal the superiority of the prediction-based CA model for simulating staircase choice.