印度热带气旋引发的并发极端风力和降雨的复合危害绘图

Ravi Ranjan, Subhankar Karmakar
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摘要

印度是世界上受热带气旋(TC)影响最严重的地区,平均每年造成 2% 的国内生产总值损失。热带气旋会引发许多其他自然灾害,对受影响人口产生复合效应,并对应急系统和基础设施的恢复能力构成重大挑战。因此,任何有关热带气旋的风险评估本质上都是多元/复合的。本研究采用新颖的准拉格朗日方法,调查了印度各地(1979-2020 年)在热带气旋期间同时出现的风和极端降雨,重点关注特定地点的危害。东部沿海邦和邻近内陆地区同时出现极端天气(阵风≥ 16 米/秒,降雨量≥ 18 毫米/小时)的频率最高(40 年内≥10 次)。而从持续时间来看,东部沿海各州和古吉拉特邦每年都会频繁出现持续时间超过一天的同期极端天气,其中克里希纳-戈达瓦里三角洲地区尤其易受高度严重事件的影响(同期极端天气持续时间≥24 小时)。这项研究首次在整个印度提供了由热带气旋引发的极端事件复合危害的高分辨率制图产品,突出了区域异质性,有助于制定有针对性的国家级风险缓解和适应规划。
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Compound hazard mapping for tropical cyclone-induced concurrent wind and rainfall extremes over India
India is the worst affected region in the world by tropical cyclones (TCs), causing an average 2% annual GDP loss. TCs instigate many other natural hazards that have a compounding effect on the adversely affected population and present significant challenges to the resilience of emergency response systems and infrastructure. Hence, any risk assessment on TC is inherently multivariate/compound in nature. This study investigates co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes during TCs across India (1979–2020) using a novel quasi-Lagrangian approach, focusing on location-specific hazards. Eastern coastal states and adjacent inland areas experience the highest frequency (≥10 cyclones in 40 years) of concurrent extremes (wind gusts ≥ 16 m/s and rainfall ≥ 18 mm/h). Whereas duration-wise, the eastern coastal states and Gujarat state experience frequent concurrent extremes lasting more than a day annually, with the Krishna–Godavari delta region particularly vulnerable to highly severe events (duration of concurrent extremes ≥ 24 h). This study provides a high-resolution cartographic product of compound hazard from TC-induced extremes for the first time over the entire India, highlighting regional heterogeneity and aiding targeted national-level risk mitigation and adaptation planning.
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