生活事件能否预测首次自杀企图?一项全国性纵向研究

IF 1.2 4区 社会学 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Longitudinal and Life Course Studies Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI:10.1332/17579597Y2024D000000020
Mogens Nygaard Christoffersen, Lorraine Khan
{"title":"生活事件能否预测首次自杀企图?一项全国性纵向研究","authors":"Mogens Nygaard Christoffersen, Lorraine Khan","doi":"10.1332/17579597Y2024D000000020","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The prevention paradox describes circumstances in which the majority of cases with a suicide attempt come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a 'high-risk' group. The assumption is that a low base rate in combination with multiple causes makes it impossible to identify a high-risk group with all suicide attempts. The best way to study events such as first-time suicide attempts and their causes is to collect event history data. Administrative registers were used to identify a group at higher risk of suicidal behaviour within a population of six national birth cohorts (N = 300,000) born between 1980 and 1985 and followed from age 15 to 29 years. Estimation of risk parameters is based on the discrete-time logistic odds-ratio model. Lifetime prevalence was 4.5% for first-time suicide attempts. Family background and family child-rearing factors were predicative of later first-time suicide attempts. A young person's diagnosis with psychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD), and being a victim of violence or sex offences contributed to the explanatory model. Contrary to the prevention paradox, results suggest that it is possible to identify a discrete high-risk group (<12%) among the population from whom two thirds of all first-time suicide attempts occur, but one third of observed suicide attempts derived from low- to moderate-risk groups. Findings confirm the need for a combined strategy of universal, targeted and indicated prevention approaches in policy development and in strategic and practice responses, and some promising prevention strategies are presented.</p>","PeriodicalId":45988,"journal":{"name":"Longitudinal and Life Course Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can life events predict first-time suicide attempts? A nationwide longitudinal study.\",\"authors\":\"Mogens Nygaard Christoffersen, Lorraine Khan\",\"doi\":\"10.1332/17579597Y2024D000000020\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>The prevention paradox describes circumstances in which the majority of cases with a suicide attempt come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a 'high-risk' group. The assumption is that a low base rate in combination with multiple causes makes it impossible to identify a high-risk group with all suicide attempts. The best way to study events such as first-time suicide attempts and their causes is to collect event history data. Administrative registers were used to identify a group at higher risk of suicidal behaviour within a population of six national birth cohorts (N = 300,000) born between 1980 and 1985 and followed from age 15 to 29 years. Estimation of risk parameters is based on the discrete-time logistic odds-ratio model. Lifetime prevalence was 4.5% for first-time suicide attempts. Family background and family child-rearing factors were predicative of later first-time suicide attempts. A young person's diagnosis with psychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD), and being a victim of violence or sex offences contributed to the explanatory model. Contrary to the prevention paradox, results suggest that it is possible to identify a discrete high-risk group (<12%) among the population from whom two thirds of all first-time suicide attempts occur, but one third of observed suicide attempts derived from low- to moderate-risk groups. Findings confirm the need for a combined strategy of universal, targeted and indicated prevention approaches in policy development and in strategic and practice responses, and some promising prevention strategies are presented.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45988,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Longitudinal and Life Course Studies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Longitudinal and Life Course Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1332/17579597Y2024D000000020\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Longitudinal and Life Course Studies","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1332/17579597Y2024D000000020","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

预防悖论描述的情况是,大多数企图自杀的病例来自低危或中危人群,只有少数来自 "高危 "人群。其假设是,低基准率加上多种原因,导致无法确定所有自杀未遂者都属于高危人群。研究首次自杀未遂等事件及其原因的最佳方法是收集事件历史数据。我们利用行政登记册,在 1980 年至 1985 年间出生的六个国家出生组群(N = 300,000 人)中确定了一个自杀行为高危人群,并对其 15 岁至 29 岁期间的行为进行了跟踪调查。风险参数的估算基于离散时间逻辑几率模型。首次尝试自杀的终生发生率为 4.5%。家庭背景和家庭育儿因素对后来的首次自杀未遂有预测作用。青少年被诊断出患有精神病或神经发育障碍(多动症、焦虑症、抑郁症、创伤后应激障碍),以及曾是暴力或性犯罪的受害者,都有助于建立解释模型。与预防悖论相反,研究结果表明,有可能识别出一个离散的高危群体(例如,有自杀倾向的青少年)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Can life events predict first-time suicide attempts? A nationwide longitudinal study.

The prevention paradox describes circumstances in which the majority of cases with a suicide attempt come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a 'high-risk' group. The assumption is that a low base rate in combination with multiple causes makes it impossible to identify a high-risk group with all suicide attempts. The best way to study events such as first-time suicide attempts and their causes is to collect event history data. Administrative registers were used to identify a group at higher risk of suicidal behaviour within a population of six national birth cohorts (N = 300,000) born between 1980 and 1985 and followed from age 15 to 29 years. Estimation of risk parameters is based on the discrete-time logistic odds-ratio model. Lifetime prevalence was 4.5% for first-time suicide attempts. Family background and family child-rearing factors were predicative of later first-time suicide attempts. A young person's diagnosis with psychiatric or neurodevelopmental disorders (ADHD, anxiety, depression, PTSD), and being a victim of violence or sex offences contributed to the explanatory model. Contrary to the prevention paradox, results suggest that it is possible to identify a discrete high-risk group (<12%) among the population from whom two thirds of all first-time suicide attempts occur, but one third of observed suicide attempts derived from low- to moderate-risk groups. Findings confirm the need for a combined strategy of universal, targeted and indicated prevention approaches in policy development and in strategic and practice responses, and some promising prevention strategies are presented.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
11.10%
发文量
43
期刊最新文献
John Bynner obituary: to a pioneer of social research using comparative longitudinal data (28 April 1938 to 22 August 2023). Creating our legacy. Mediation of risk factors for high blood pressure in four racial and ethnic populations. Socio-economic gradients in pupils' self-efficacy: evidence, evolution and main drivers during the primary school years in France. Normalising sequence lengths using the relative duration of episodes: an application to doctoral trajectories in Germany
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1