近地天体探测器任务发出的小行星撞击危险警告

IF 3.8 Q2 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS The Planetary Science Journal Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI:10.3847/psj/ad4d9e
Oliver Lay, Joe Masiero, Tommy Grav, Amy Mainzer, Frank Masci and Edward Wright
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国国家航空航天局的近地天体勘测器任务计划于 2027 年 9 月发射,其目的是在名义上为期 5 年的任务中探测并描述至少三分之二直径大于 140 米的潜在危险小行星。我们描述了一个模型,该模型使用比 Mainzer 等人(2023 年)中描述的时域巡天模拟器更快的方法来估算巡天性能。该模型用于解释 5 年和 10 年勘测的完整性如何随轨道类型和小行星大小的变化而变化,并确定探测可能性明显较高或较低的轨道。单凭大小并不能完全代表撞击危险,因此对于每个小行星轨道,我们还根据撞击速度和撞击的相对可能性计算相关危险。然后,我们根据撞击能量的函数来估算任务在预测撞击方面的有效性,结果发现 5 年的任务可以识别 87% 的大于 1 亿吨的潜在撞击(托里诺-9,"区域破坏")。如果执行 10 年的任务,这一比例将提高到 94%。我们还展示了预警时间的分布如何随撞击能量而变化。
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Asteroid Impact Hazard Warning from the Near-Earth Object Surveyor Mission
NASA's Near-Earth Object Surveyor mission, scheduled for launch in 2027 September, is designed to detect and characterize at least two-thirds of the potentially hazardous asteroids with diameters larger than 140 m in a nominal 5 yr mission. We describe a model to estimate the survey performance using a faster approach than the time domain survey simulator described in Mainzer et al. (2023). This model is applied to explain how the completeness for 5 and 10 yr surveys varies with orbit type and asteroid size and to identify orbits with notably high or low likelihoods of detection. Size alone is an incomplete proxy for impact hazard, so for each asteroid orbit, we also calculate the associated hazard based on the impact velocity and the relative likelihood of impact. We then estimate how effective the mission will be at anticipating impacts as a function of impact energy, finding that a 5 yr mission will identify 87% of potential impacts larger than 100 Mt (Torino-9, "Regional Devastation"). For a 10 yr mission, this increases to 94%. We also show how the distribution of warning time varies with impact energy.
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来源期刊
The Planetary Science Journal
The Planetary Science Journal Earth and Planetary Sciences-Geophysics
CiteScore
5.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
249
审稿时长
15 weeks
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