评估国会预算办公室对美国农业部强制性农业和营养计划的基线预测

IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI:10.1002/aepp.13457
Hari P. Regmi, Todd H. Kuethe
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引用次数: 0

摘要

美国国会预算办公室(CBO)对美国农业部强制性农业和营养计划支出的预测对美国农业政策的制定非常重要。利用 CBO 的预测和从 1985 年到 2020 年的观察结果,我们研究了对农业、补充营养援助计划 (SNAP) 和儿童营养计划支出的预测在多大程度上是无偏的、有效的和信息丰富的。我们发现,对农业和儿童营养计划支出的预测是无偏的,对补充营养援助计划支出的预测在短期内是无偏的,但超过 3 年后就会向下偏移。所有三个系列的预测都是低效的。SNAP 和儿童营养计划支出预测在 5 年期限内具有参考价值,但农业计划支出预测仅在 1 年期限内具有参考价值。2008 年以来的农业计划分类数据表明,信息不灵主要源于农业保护和商品计划的预测。这些发现可能对 CBO 有价值,因为他们将继续改进预测,也可能对预测用户有价值,因为他们将调整自己的预期。
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An evaluation of Congressional Budget Office's baseline projections of USDA mandatory farm and nutrition programs

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections of USDA's mandatory farm and nutrition program outlays are important in shaping US agricultural policy. Using CBO projections and observed outcomes from 1985 through 2020, we examine the degree to which projections of farm, supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP), and child nutrition program outlays are unbiased, efficient, and informative. We find that projections for farm and child nutrition program outlays are unbiased, SNAP outlays are unbiased at short-term but are downward biased beyond a 3-year horizon. All three series of projections are inefficient. SNAP and child nutrition program outlay projections are informative up to a 5-year horizon, but the farm program outlay projections are informative for only a 1-year horizon. Disaggregated farm program data since 2008 suggests that the uninformativeness principally stems from conservation and commodity program projections. The findings may be valuable to CBO, as they continue to improve projections, and to projection users, in adjusting their expectations.

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来源期刊
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
6.90%
发文量
117
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy provides a forum to address contemporary and emerging policy issues within an economic framework that informs the decision-making and policy-making community. AEPP welcomes submissions related to the economics of public policy themes associated with agriculture; animal, plant, and human health; energy; environment; food and consumer behavior; international development; natural hazards; natural resources; population and migration; and regional and rural development.
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