{"title":"过去 20 年的太阳活动和第 25 个太阳周期的预测","authors":"Y. I. Stozhkov, V. P. Okhlopkov","doi":"10.1134/s0010952524600392","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Experimental data on solar activity (sunspot number, induction of solar polar magnetic field <i>B</i><sub>p</sub>, and others), characteristics of interplanetary space, and cosmic ray fluxes testify that the Sun has entered a deep minimum of its activity similar to the Dalton minimum. An almost functional relationship was found between maximum values of <i>B</i><sub>pmax</sub> observed in the solar activity minimum of the 11-year cycle and the next sunspot maximum. Based on this relationship, a simple method of forecasting maximum number of sunspots <i>R</i><sub>zmax</sub> and time course <i>R</i><sub>z</sub>(t) was developed. A forecast of the 25th solar cycle is given.</p>","PeriodicalId":56319,"journal":{"name":"Cosmic Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Solar Activity in the Last 20 Years and a Forecast of the 25th Solar Cycle\",\"authors\":\"Y. I. Stozhkov, V. P. Okhlopkov\",\"doi\":\"10.1134/s0010952524600392\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Abstract</h3><p>Experimental data on solar activity (sunspot number, induction of solar polar magnetic field <i>B</i><sub>p</sub>, and others), characteristics of interplanetary space, and cosmic ray fluxes testify that the Sun has entered a deep minimum of its activity similar to the Dalton minimum. An almost functional relationship was found between maximum values of <i>B</i><sub>pmax</sub> observed in the solar activity minimum of the 11-year cycle and the next sunspot maximum. Based on this relationship, a simple method of forecasting maximum number of sunspots <i>R</i><sub>zmax</sub> and time course <i>R</i><sub>z</sub>(t) was developed. A forecast of the 25th solar cycle is given.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56319,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cosmic Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cosmic Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0010952524600392\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cosmic Research","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1134/s0010952524600392","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar Activity in the Last 20 Years and a Forecast of the 25th Solar Cycle
Abstract
Experimental data on solar activity (sunspot number, induction of solar polar magnetic field Bp, and others), characteristics of interplanetary space, and cosmic ray fluxes testify that the Sun has entered a deep minimum of its activity similar to the Dalton minimum. An almost functional relationship was found between maximum values of Bpmax observed in the solar activity minimum of the 11-year cycle and the next sunspot maximum. Based on this relationship, a simple method of forecasting maximum number of sunspots Rzmax and time course Rz(t) was developed. A forecast of the 25th solar cycle is given.
期刊介绍：
Cosmic Research publishes scientific papers covering all subjects of space science and technology, including the following: ballistics, flight dynamics of the Earth’s artificial satellites and automatic interplanetary stations; problems of transatmospheric descent; design and structure of spacecraft and scientific research instrumentation; life support systems and radiation safety of manned spacecrafts; exploration of the Earth from Space; exploration of near space; exploration of the Sun, planets, secondary planets, and interplanetary medium; exploration of stars, nebulae, interstellar medium, galaxies, and quasars from spacecraft; and various astrophysical problems related to space exploration. A chronicle of scientific events and other notices concerning the main topics of the journal are also presented.
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