Trilemma of life cycle carbon, employment, and costs of trucking industry's shift toward automation and electrification

The transportation sector is undergoing a transformative shift, driven by advancements like autonomous and electric vehicle technologies. In this research, we investigate employment, carbon emissions, and total cost of ownership of autonomy and electrification in the US trucking industry. We utilize life cycle assessment and multi-regional input-output modeling to develop a comprehensive life cycle sustainability assessment approach. According to the results, while enhanced fuel economy due to autonomous systems can lead up to a 18% and 41% reduction in emissions and costs, electrification of diesel trucks shows remarkable potential, achieving up to a 40% decline in emissions and a 12% saving in life cycle costs. Autonomy and electrification combined could lead to a 50% decrease in emissions and 46% savings in life cycle costs. On the other hand, autonomy, while enhancing fuel efficiency and reducing costs, causes job losses due to improved efficiency and the elimination of driver positions. Introducing autonomy to diesel trucks results in a 27% decrease in jobs within the US trucking sector, attributed to improved fuel efficiency and subsequent job losses. Transition to autonomy and electrification requires a deliberate balance between environmental, social, and economic aspects. Managerial strategies should consider the use of the proposed composite indicators when setting emission reduction, cost cutting, and managing employment implications. Flexible re-skilling and training programs should be developed to adapt to the changing skill requirements due to electrification and automation.