{"title":"基于biomod2模型预测气候变化对中国毛竹地理分布的影响","authors":"Rui Gu, Songpo Wei, Jiarui Li, Shihui Zheng, Zhiteng Li, Guanglu Liu, Shaohui Fan","doi":"10.1007/s10342-024-01706-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Moso bamboo (<i>Phyllostachys edulis</i>), a non-timber plant resource in China, possesses significant ecological and economic value. However, human activities and climate change have degraded its natural habitat, posing a significant threat to its widespread distribution. To address this, we used species distribution models based on 115 occurrence data and 10 ecological variables to predict the potential suitable areas and spatial change trends of moso bamboo in present and future periods in China. We also analyzed areas with environmental anomalies and the drivers of its geographical variations under climate change. The results showed that the biomod2 ensemble model, consisting of eleven integrated models, exhibited significantly improved accuracy compared to single models. Key environmental factors limiting its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range (bio2), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and elevation. Currently, the potential suitable habitat covers 152.74 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, mainly from south of the Qinling-Huaihe River to north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, under future climate scenarios, these habitats will considerably shrink, especially in highly suitable areas. The moderately suitable habitat will fragment, and the low-suitability boundary will move northward. With the deepening impact of climate change, the entire distribution range will move towards higher latitudes. Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, and western Jiangxi emerge as future climate refuges for moso bamboo, necessitating critical population protection. In summary, our research deepens our insight of how climate change drives the geographic distribution of moso bamboo and offers valuable theoretical support for its cultivation and conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":11996,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Forest Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of moso bamboo in China based on biomod2 model\",\"authors\":\"Rui Gu, Songpo Wei, Jiarui Li, Shihui Zheng, Zhiteng Li, Guanglu Liu, Shaohui Fan\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10342-024-01706-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Moso bamboo (<i>Phyllostachys edulis</i>), a non-timber plant resource in China, possesses significant ecological and economic value. However, human activities and climate change have degraded its natural habitat, posing a significant threat to its widespread distribution. To address this, we used species distribution models based on 115 occurrence data and 10 ecological variables to predict the potential suitable areas and spatial change trends of moso bamboo in present and future periods in China. We also analyzed areas with environmental anomalies and the drivers of its geographical variations under climate change. The results showed that the biomod2 ensemble model, consisting of eleven integrated models, exhibited significantly improved accuracy compared to single models. Key environmental factors limiting its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range (bio2), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and elevation. Currently, the potential suitable habitat covers 152.74 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, mainly from south of the Qinling-Huaihe River to north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, under future climate scenarios, these habitats will considerably shrink, especially in highly suitable areas. The moderately suitable habitat will fragment, and the low-suitability boundary will move northward. With the deepening impact of climate change, the entire distribution range will move towards higher latitudes. Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, and western Jiangxi emerge as future climate refuges for moso bamboo, necessitating critical population protection. In summary, our research deepens our insight of how climate change drives the geographic distribution of moso bamboo and offers valuable theoretical support for its cultivation and conservation.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11996,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Journal of Forest Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Journal of Forest Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-024-01706-9\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"FORESTRY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Journal of Forest Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-024-01706-9","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of moso bamboo in China based on biomod2 model
Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis), a non-timber plant resource in China, possesses significant ecological and economic value. However, human activities and climate change have degraded its natural habitat, posing a significant threat to its widespread distribution. To address this, we used species distribution models based on 115 occurrence data and 10 ecological variables to predict the potential suitable areas and spatial change trends of moso bamboo in present and future periods in China. We also analyzed areas with environmental anomalies and the drivers of its geographical variations under climate change. The results showed that the biomod2 ensemble model, consisting of eleven integrated models, exhibited significantly improved accuracy compared to single models. Key environmental factors limiting its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range (bio2), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and elevation. Currently, the potential suitable habitat covers 152.74 × 104 km2, mainly from south of the Qinling-Huaihe River to north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, under future climate scenarios, these habitats will considerably shrink, especially in highly suitable areas. The moderately suitable habitat will fragment, and the low-suitability boundary will move northward. With the deepening impact of climate change, the entire distribution range will move towards higher latitudes. Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, and western Jiangxi emerge as future climate refuges for moso bamboo, necessitating critical population protection. In summary, our research deepens our insight of how climate change drives the geographic distribution of moso bamboo and offers valuable theoretical support for its cultivation and conservation.
期刊介绍:
The European Journal of Forest Research focuses on publishing innovative results of empirical or model-oriented studies which contribute to the development of broad principles underlying forest ecosystems, their functions and services.
Papers which exclusively report methods, models, techniques or case studies are beyond the scope of the journal, while papers on studies at the molecular or cellular level will be considered where they address the relevance of their results to the understanding of ecosystem structure and function. Papers relating to forest operations and forest engineering will be considered if they are tailored within a forest ecosystem context.