Respective contribution of baseline clinical data, tumour metabolism and tumour blood-flow in predicting pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in HER2 and Triple Negative breast cancer.

Background: The aim of this study is to investigate the added value of combining tumour blood flow (BF) and metabolism parameters, including texture features, with clinical parameters to predict, at baseline, the pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with newly diagnosed breast cancer (BC).

Methods: One hundred and twenty-eight BC patients underwent a ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT before any treatment. Tumour BF and metabolism parameters were extracted from first-pass dynamic and delayed PET images, respectively. Standard and texture features were extracted from BF and metabolic images. Prediction of pCR was performed using logistic regression, random forest and support vector classification algorithms. Models were built using clinical (C), clinical and metabolic (C+M) and clinical, metabolic and tumour BF (C+M+BF) information combined. Algorithms were trained on 80% of the dataset and tested on the remaining 20%. Univariate and multivariate features selections were carried out on the training dataset. A total of 50 shuffle splits were performed. The analysis was carried out on the whole dataset (HER2 and Triple Negative (TN)), and separately in HER2 (N=76) and TN (N=52) tumours.

Results: In the whole dataset, the highest classification performances were observed for C+M models, significantly (p-value<0.01) higher than C models and better than C+M+BF models (mean balanced accuracy of 0.66, 0.61, and 0.64 respectively). For HER2 tumours, equal performances were noted for C and C+M models, with performances higher than C+M+BF models (mean balanced accuracy of 0.64, and 0.61 respectively). Regarding TN tumours, the best classification results were reported for C+M models, with better performances than C and C+M+BF models but not significantly (mean balanced accuracy of 0.65, 0.63, and 0.62 respectively).

Conclusion: Baseline clinical data combined with global and texture tumour metabolism parameters assessed by ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT provide a better prediction of pCR after NAC in patients with BC compared to clinical parameters alone for TN, and HER2 and TN tumours together. In contrast, adding BF parameters to the models did not improve prediction, regardless of the tumour subgroup analysed.