{"title":"在 CMIP6-HighResMIP 模型中受观测数据制约的北太平洋西部热带气旋向极 端移动情况","authors":"Zhuoying Li, Wen Zhou","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00704-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00704-3.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the CMIP6-HighResMIP models constrained by observations\",\"authors\":\"Zhuoying Li, Wen Zhou\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41612-024-00704-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19438,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00704-3.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00704-3\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00704-3","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the CMIP6-HighResMIP models constrained by observations
Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.
期刊介绍:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.