Resist or retreat? Beach erosion and the climate crisis in Italy: Scenarios, impacts and challenges

The ongoing erosion of beaches due to anthropic pressure, together with the effects of sea level rise are expected to have devastating effects on sandy coastlines. This paper identifies the Italian beaches under threat and their regional distribution, examining the implications for beach-dependent activities and coastal management, based on the integration of various projections and datasets. As a result, by the year 2050 erosion is expected to affect 70% of Italian beaches. One-fifth of the current beaches' surface is likely to be almost completely submerged by 2050 and 45% by the end of the century, with the regions of Sardinia, Campania, Lazio, and Apulia likely to lose more than half of their equipped beaches. Although beaches naturally tend to migrate landward when subjected to erosion, and such shift can be favoured by managed retreat measures, these solutions are severely limited by the increasing urbanisation of back beaches. Adaptation in Italy is almost exclusively based on coastal protections, which exacerbate overall erosion and undermine beaches’ natural resilience. A transformative and nature-based rethinking of the coastal management regime is needed to avoid the artificialization of a huge portion of the sandy coastline and increasing threats to coastal settlements and economies.