撒哈拉以南非洲的要素生产率与经济增长的关系:对称和非对称面板方法

Urgaia R. Worku
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摘要

本研究探讨了全要素生产率及其他主要决定因素对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)经济增长的影响和作用。研究采用了从世界银行发展指标中获取的数据,时间跨度为 1990 年至 2022 年,使用了面板 ARDL、GMM 及其扩展的非对称非线性(NARDL)和(NGMM)模型。与对应的 ARDL 和 GMM 对称模型相比,NARDL 和 NGMM 的长期估算优于短期估算,从而确保在生产力对经济增长的影响分析方面获得更有效、更可靠的信息。最后,稳健的动态时际格兰杰因果检验表明,全要素生产率上升的增长率与实际 GDP 之间存在非对称的双向因果关系。贸易条件增长率的下降与实际 GDP 增长率之间也存在双向因果关系。研究的实证结果是促进撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济持续增长的极其重要的指标。因此,这项研究工作建议各国政府应通过提供就业培训来提高全要素生产率和贸易条件,并将促进相互之间的贸易作为政策工具。
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Factor productivity nexus economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Symmetric and asymmetric panel approaches

This study examines the effect and role of total factor productivity with other major determinants on economic growth in the Sub – Saharan Africa(SSA).It employs the data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning from 1990 to 2022 using panel ARDL, GMM and their extended asymmetric non-linear (NARDL) and (NGMM) models. The NARDL and NGMM are more superior to the counterpart ARDL and GMM symmetric models in the long-run than the short-run estimation, ensuring more efficient and reliable information regarding the effects of productivity on economic growth analysis. Finally, the robust dynamic inter-temporal Granger causality tests show that asymmetrically there is bi-directional causality between the growth rate of an upward movement in total factor productivity and real GDP. There is also bi-directional causality of a downward movement in the growth rate of the terms of trade and real GDP growth rate. The empirical findings of the study are extremely important indicators for sustained economic growth in the SSA region. Hence, this research work recommends that governments should enhance total factor productivity and terms of trade through job-trainning provision and promote trading among themselves as policy tools.

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