World Development Sustainability最新文献

Unlocking SDG potentials through the synergy of public spending and governance: A district level analysis in Assam 通过公共支出和治理的协同作用释放可持续发展目标的潜力：阿萨姆邦地区层面的分析

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100276

Bhabesh Hazarika, Ankit Singh

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a global framework to address critical issues such as poverty, inequality, and climate change by 2030. India has been adopting a localization strategy towards implementing SDGs with Assam emerging as one of pioneer states in articulating localized strategy. Despite its abundant natural resources, Assam faces considerable developmental challenges in health, education, poverty, gender inequalities and others due to limited fiscal capacity. The inter-district variations also raise concerns whether such disparities are due to inadequate resource allocation or underlying governance issues, or both? Based on district level data, the present paper analyses the intricate interplay between public spending and governance quality in shaping SDG outcomes specially in the social sector. Such understanding is crucial as districts are the implementing unit when it comes to public spending. Regression results show that a 1% increase in per capita social-sector spending raises the social-sector SDG index by about 8.2%. The positive and significant interaction with governance quality (elasticity = 0.075) indicates that districts with stronger institutions achieve substantially higher SDG gains from public expenditure. This study advances the existing literature by providing subnational evidence on the nexus between public spending, governance quality, and SDG outcomes at the district level in Assam, India. By analyzing the uneven distribution and effectiveness of public expenditure in critical sectors, it contributes to understanding the institutional and fiscal drivers of inter-district disparities in SDG achievements and underscores the need for a dual strategy of equitable financing and governance reform to accelerate progress.

可持续发展目标（sdg）为到2030年解决贫困、不平等和气候变化等关键问题提供了一个全球框架。印度一直在采取本地化战略来实施可持续发展目标，阿萨姆邦成为阐明本地化战略的先驱之一。尽管自然资源丰富，但由于财政能力有限，阿萨姆邦在卫生、教育、贫困、性别不平等和其他方面面临相当大的发展挑战。地区间的差异也引起了人们的关注，这种差异是由于资源分配不足还是潜在的治理问题，还是两者兼而有之？基于地区层面的数据，本文分析了公共支出和治理质量在形成可持续发展目标成果方面的复杂相互作用，特别是在社会部门。这种理解是至关重要的，因为在公共支出方面，地区是执行单位。回归结果显示，社会部门人均支出每增加1%，社会部门可持续发展目标指数就会提高约8.2%。与治理质量（弹性= 0.075）的正向显著交互作用表明，制度较强的地区从公共支出中获得的可持续发展目标收益要高得多。本研究通过提供印度阿萨姆邦地区层面公共支出、治理质量和可持续发展目标成果之间关系的次国家级证据，进一步完善了现有文献。通过分析关键部门公共支出的不均衡分布和有效性，有助于理解地区间可持续发展目标实现差异的制度和财政驱动因素，并强调需要采取公平融资和治理改革的双重战略来加速进展。

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引用次数: 0

Optimization of environmentally friendly coagulants based on circular economy and SDGs in the rubber latex industry in Indonesia 基于循环经济和可持续发展目标的印尼胶乳行业环境友好型混凝剂优化

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100274

Masayu Rosyidah

This study presents a novel approach to optimizing environmentally friendly coagulants in line with the circular economy (CE) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) principles for the rubber latex industry. Unlike conventional chemical coagulants that pose environmental hazards, the proposed formulation using lemon and plant-based gums offers a sustainable, non-toxic, and biodegradable alternative. The novelty lies in combining natural materials with statistical optimization using Response Surface Methodology (RSM), thereby providing a replicable model for eco-innovation in latex processing. This study aimed to optimize lemon-based natural coagulants in the rubber latex industry by applying Response Surface Methodology (RSM), thereby contributing to sustainable production in line with the Circular Economy (CE) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The effects of lemon concentration, latex volume, and temperature on coagulation time were systematically evaluated using a central composite design (CCD). The results showed that lemon concentration and temperature significantly influenced coagulation time (P < 0.05). The optimal condition, namely 19.82 ml of lemon and 81.07 ml of latex, reduced coagulation time to only 2.16 min. In conclusion, this study is among the first to demonstrate the effectiveness of lemon as a rapid, biodegradable, and low-cost alternative to synthetic chemicals for coagulation in rubber processing. The optimization promotes reduced environmental impact and production costs, aligning with CE principles and supporting SDG targets on responsible production, economic growth, and climate action. Additionally, the results provide a replicable and environmentally friendly strategy for rubber-producing regions.

本研究提出了一种新的方法来优化符合循环经济（CE）和可持续发展目标（SDGs）原则的环保型混凝剂。与对环境造成危害的传统化学混凝剂不同，使用柠檬和植物胶的配方提供了一种可持续的、无毒的、可生物降解的替代品。新颖之处在于利用响应面法（RSM）将天然材料与统计优化相结合，从而为乳胶加工的生态创新提供了可复制的模型。本研究旨在应用响应面法（RSM）优化橡胶乳胶行业的柠檬基天然混凝剂，从而为符合循环经济（CE）和可持续发展目标（SDGs）的可持续生产做出贡献。采用中心复合设计（CCD）系统评价了柠檬浓度、乳胶体积和温度对混凝时间的影响。结果表明，柠檬浓度和温度对凝固时间有显著影响（P < 0.05）。最佳条件为19.82 ml柠檬和81.07 ml乳胶，将凝结时间缩短至2.16 min。总之，这项研究首次证明了柠檬作为一种快速、可生物降解、低成本的合成化学品在橡胶加工中用于混凝的有效性。优化有助于减少环境影响和生产成本，符合CE原则，并支持可持续发展目标关于负责任生产、经济增长和气候行动的目标。此外，研究结果为橡胶产区提供了一种可复制的环保策略。

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引用次数: 0

Predicting aquaponics adoption among smallholder fish farmers in Bhutan using machine learning 利用机器学习预测不丹小农养殖户对水培的采用

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100272

Namgay Dorji , Satoshi Yamazaki , Pema Thinley

Aquaponics has significant potential as a circular economy technology for sustainable food production, particularly for resource-constrained smallholder farmers in developing countries. However, its adoption remains largely limited to a handful of developed countries. A major challenge is the lack of empirical insights needed to inform effective government policies and business development that can promote broader adoption. Using nationally representative survey data on smallholder fish farmers in Bhutan, this study developed a random forests classification model to identify personal, farm-level, and institutional factors that predict the propensity of farmers to adopt aquaponics. Results suggest that adoption propensity is strongly associated with farmers’ perception of its benefit, access to institutional support and markets, and existing fish production skills. These results provide practical guidance for policies and programs that aim to promote aquaponics as a sustainable food production technology. The findings highlight the need to raise awareness, expand training opportunities and support, and strengthen market linkages to make adoption more feasible and attractive for smallholder farmers. By addressing these areas, governments and development partners can design more effective interventions to accelerate the diffusion of aquaponics and promote sustainable food production systems in resource-constrained environments.

鱼菜共生作为可持续粮食生产的循环经济技术具有巨大潜力，特别是对发展中国家资源有限的小农而言。然而，它的采用仍然主要局限于少数发达国家。一个主要的挑战是缺乏为有效的政府政策和商业发展提供信息所需的经验见解，而这些政策和商业发展可以促进更广泛的采用。本研究利用不丹小规模养殖户的全国代表性调查数据，开发了一个随机森林分类模型，以确定预测养殖户采用水培倾向的个人、养殖场层面和制度因素。结果表明，采用倾向与农民对其利益的看法、获得体制支持和市场的机会以及现有的鱼类生产技能密切相关。这些结果为旨在促进鱼菜共生作为可持续食品生产技术的政策和计划提供了实用指导。研究结果强调需要提高认识，扩大培训机会和支持，并加强市场联系，以使小农更可行和更有吸引力。通过解决这些领域的问题，政府和发展伙伴可以设计出更有效的干预措施，以加速鱼菜共生技术的推广，并在资源受限的环境中促进可持续粮食生产系统。

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引用次数: 0

Diversified production of smallholders in northwest Ethiopia: Implications for nutrition-sensitive agriculture 埃塞俄比亚西北部小农的多样化生产：对营养敏感型农业的影响

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100273

Genanew Agitew , Zewdu Berhanie , Samson Gebremedhin

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture is a production approach to ensure the production of a variety of affordable, nutritious, culturally appropriate, and safe foods in adequate quantity and quality to meet dietary requirements. The objective of the study is to assess the nutrition sensitivity of smallholder production in northwest Ethiopia. Data were generated from 478 randomly sampled households using a structured questionnaire-based survey. The analysis was performed using the production diversity score and Simpson’s Diversity Index. Results revealed that smallholder households, on average, produce 6.08 food groups. The food group production diversity index of smallholders is 88.6 %. Poisson regression analysis results also show that demographic and socioeconomic factors are affecting on-farm production diversity. The study concludes that smallholder agricultural production in northwest Ethiopia is nutrition-sensitive and can supply a minimum dietary diversity to households.

营养敏感型农业是一种生产方法，旨在确保生产各种负担得起的、有营养的、文化上适当的和安全的、数量和质量充足的食品，以满足饮食需求。本研究的目的是评估埃塞俄比亚西北部小农生产的营养敏感性。数据是通过结构化的问卷调查从478个随机抽样的家庭中产生的。采用生产多样性评分和辛普森多样性指数进行分析。结果表明，小农家庭平均生产了6.08个粮食类。小农粮食类群生产多样性指数为88.6%。泊松回归分析结果还表明，人口和社会经济因素对农业生产多样性也有影响。该研究得出的结论是，埃塞俄比亚西北部的小农农业生产对营养敏感，可以为家庭提供最低限度的饮食多样性。

引用次数: 0

The development model of innovative leadership among HR managers in hotel management entering wellness tourism: An empirical study of wellness tourism hotels in Phuket, Thailand 健康旅游酒店业人力资源管理者创新领导力发展模式——以泰国普吉岛健康旅游酒店为例

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100270

Yuttachai Hareebin , Neeranat Kaewprasert Rakangthong , Narinthon Imjai , Abror Abror , Somnuk Aujirapongpan

This study aims to develop a model of innovative leadership among HR managers in wellness tourism hotels to strengthen organizational adaptability and sustainability in response to the industry’s dynamic demands. A three-phase mixed-methods design was employed. In Phase 1, in-depth interviews were conducted with seven experts in wellness tourism HR, selected through purposive sampling, to explore core leadership components and inform the development of the survey instrument. In Phase 2, a structured questionnaire was administered to 387 HR managers from wellness tourism hotels in Phuket, and the data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) to validate the proposed model and examine the relationships among variables. In Phase 3, 12 senior HR managers, each with over seven years of leadership experience, participated in follow-up interviews to assess the practical relevance and contextual applicability of the findings. The study identifies four critical factors—HR professional skills, strategic intuition, networking capabilities, and dynamic capabilities—that play a significant role in shaping innovative leadership. Grounded in resource-based theory and service innovation capability theory, the findings contribute to advancing theoretical understanding of leadership in tourism contexts while offering strategic guidance for human capital development in wellness-focused hospitality enterprises.

本研究旨在建立健康旅游酒店人力资源管理者的创新领导模式，以增强组织的适应性和可持续性，以应对行业的动态需求。采用三相混合方法设计。在第一阶段，通过有目的的抽样，对7位健康旅游人力资源专家进行了深入访谈，以探索核心领导力成分，并为调查工具的开发提供信息。第二阶段，对普吉岛健康旅游酒店的387名人力资源经理进行结构化问卷调查，利用结构方程模型（SEM）对数据进行分析，验证模型的有效性，并检验变量之间的关系。在第三阶段，12位拥有7年以上领导经验的高级人力资源经理参与了后续访谈，以评估研究结果的实际相关性和情境适用性。该研究确定了四个关键因素——人力资源专业技能、战略直觉、网络能力和动态能力——在塑造创新领导力方面发挥着重要作用。在资源基础理论和服务创新能力理论的基础上，研究结果有助于提高对旅游业领导力的理论认识，同时为注重健康的酒店企业的人力资本开发提供战略指导。

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引用次数: 0

Gendered time poverty in rice farming households: Evidence from the haor ecosystem of Bangladesh 水稻农户的性别时间贫困：来自孟加拉国haor生态系统的证据

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100269

Mou Rani Sarker , Ranjitha Puskur , Cesar B. Quicoy , Merlyne M. Paunlagui , Antonio Jesus A. Quilloy

Gender equality in agricultural development is crucial for sustainable and climate-resilient growth. In Bangladesh’s climate-vulnerable haor region, women play significant roles in farming and household management, yet their contributions remain largely invisible. Time poverty, defined as limited discretionary time resulting from the dual burden of productive and unpaid care work, represents a critical but understudied dimension of gender inequality. We address this gap by analyzing intrahousehold labor allocation, seasonal variations, intersectionality, and determinants of gendered time poverty in rice farming households within the haor ecosystem of Bangladesh. Data were collected from 200 households in Netrokona district using a mixed-method approach. Results show that women are significantly more time poor than men, contributing 40% of labor in rice production and undertaking 75% of unpaid post-harvest operations without a corresponding shift in domestic responsibilities. Foster-Greer-Thorbecke estimates indicate that 53% of women are time poor compared to 20% of men. Climate variability further intensified these pressures, as recurrent floods and erratic rainfall increased women’s workload in both farm and household spheres. To balance work, women often juggled simultaneous tasks or made difficult trade-offs with leisure and personal care. We also found that time poverty marginalizes women across diverse social groups and identities, including class, farm size, religion, education level, age, and family structure. Probit model results shows that education, secondary employment, religion, income, household composition, farm size, access to information, and group membership were significant correlated with gendered time poverty. Policies should prioritize recognition of women’s unpaid contributions, promote labor-saving technologies, and integrate climate resilience strategies to reduce time poverty.

农业发展中的性别平等对可持续和气候适应型增长至关重要。在孟加拉国易受气候影响的haor地区，妇女在农业和家庭管理中发挥着重要作用，但她们的贡献在很大程度上仍然是隐形的。时间贫穷的定义是由于生产性和无偿护理工作的双重负担而造成的有限的自由支配时间，这是性别不平等的一个关键但尚未得到充分研究的方面。我们通过分析孟加拉国haor生态系统内水稻农户的家庭内部劳动力分配、季节变化、交叉性和性别时间贫困的决定因素来解决这一差距。采用混合方法从Netrokona区的200户家庭收集数据。结果表明，妇女的时间贫困程度明显高于男子，她们在水稻生产中贡献了40%的劳动力，承担了75%的无偿收获后作业，而家庭责任却没有相应的转变。福斯特-格里尔-托贝克的估计表明，53%的女性时间贫乏，而男性的这一比例为20%。气候变化进一步加剧了这些压力，因为经常性的洪水和不稳定的降雨增加了妇女在农场和家庭领域的工作量。为了平衡工作，女性经常同时处理多项任务，或者在休闲和个人护理之间做出艰难的权衡。我们还发现，时间贫困使不同社会群体和身份的女性边缘化，包括阶级、农场规模、宗教、教育水平、年龄和家庭结构。Probit模型结果显示，教育程度、中等职业、宗教、收入、家庭构成、农场规模、信息获取和群体成员与性别时间贫困显著相关。政策应优先承认妇女的无偿贡献，推广节省劳动力的技术，并整合气候适应战略，以减少时间贫困。

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引用次数: 0

Livelihood vulnerability of urban waste pickers in Indonesia: Insights for inclusive circular economy transitions 印度尼西亚城市拾捡者的生计脆弱性：包容性循环经济转型的见解

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2026.100268

Choirul Amin , Umrotun , Vidya N. Fikriyah , Maxim G.M. Samson

Rapid transitions toward circular economy and waste-to-energy (WtE) systems in Indonesia are reshaping urban waste economies, creating new risks for informal workers who rely on recyclables for their livelihoods. This study assesses the livelihood vulnerability of waste-picker households in Surakarta using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), grounded in the IPCC’s exposure–sensitivity–adaptive capacity framework. Using cross-sectional data from 85 households complemented by qualitative interviews and participatory assessments, the analysis employs entropy-weighted indicators and regression models to identify the main determinants of vulnerability. Independent and seasonal waste pickers emerge as the most vulnerable, driven by high exposure, income dependence, and limited adaptive capacity. At the same time, aggregator-affiliated workers are relatively protected through informal institutional linkages—though such arrangements can reproduce dependency and unequal power relations. Education exerts only a modest effect, reflecting structural barriers that constrain mobility within informal labour markets. By extending the LVI to an urban context and embedding it within a just transition lens, the study advances theoretical understanding of vulnerability as a dynamic, relational process shaped by governance and technological change. Policy implications highlight the need for inclusive transition mechanisms—formal recognition, cooperative integration, and expanded social protection—to align environmental modernization with social equity and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 11 and SDG 12).

印度尼西亚向循环经济和垃圾发电（WtE）系统的快速转型正在重塑城市垃圾经济，给依赖可回收物谋生的非正规工人带来新的风险。本研究以IPCC的暴露敏感性-适应能力框架为基础，利用生计脆弱性指数（LVI）评估了泗水拾荒户的生计脆弱性。利用来自85个家庭的横截面数据，辅以定性访谈和参与性评估，该分析采用熵加权指标和回归模型来确定脆弱性的主要决定因素。由于暴露程度高、收入依赖和适应能力有限，独立和季节性拾荒者成为最脆弱的群体。与此同时，隶属于聚合者的工人通过非正式的制度联系得到了相对的保护——尽管这种安排可能会再现依赖和不平等的权力关系。教育的作用有限，反映了非正规劳动力市场中限制流动性的结构性障碍。通过将LVI扩展到城市环境中，并将其嵌入到一个公正的过渡镜头中，该研究推进了脆弱性作为一个由治理和技术变革形成的动态关系过程的理论理解。政策影响突出表明，需要建立包容性过渡机制——正式承认、合作整合和扩大社会保护——使环境现代化与社会公平和可持续发展目标（可持续发展目标11和12）保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of household water security attributes in Johor: A choice modeling approach 柔佛州家庭用水安全属性分析：选择建模方法

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2025.100266

Ahmad Hakimi Abdul Halim, Zuraini Anang, Mahirah Kamaludin, Roseliza Mat Alipiah, Noorhaslinda Kulub Abdul Rashid

Water security is emerging as a pressing global challenge that directly impacts the lives of billions of people. In Malaysia, this issue is particularly evident in Johor, where problems related to water scarcity and management have become increasingly concerning. The state is experiencing growing difficulties due to aging water infrastructure and frequent pipe bursts, highlighting the urgency of strengthening water security measures. This study aims to explore key aspects of household water security and determine the factors influencing it to support sustainable water management efforts. Additionally, it seeks to estimate households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in water-related attributes such as pipe bursts, water quantity, reliability, pressure, and pricing. The analysis is based on a Choice Modelling approach using data collected through a questionnaire survey involving 250 respondents. The findings presented are significant and beneficial for water service providers in the development of new projects. Additionally, policymakers can utilize this information to formulate policies that ensure the delivery of efficient services to consumers.

水安全正成为一项紧迫的全球挑战，直接影响到数十亿人的生活。在马来西亚，这一问题在柔佛州尤为明显，在那里，与水资源短缺和管理有关的问题日益令人担忧。由于供水基础设施老化和管道破裂频发，该州正面临越来越多的困难，这凸显了加强水安全措施的紧迫性。本研究旨在探讨家庭用水安全的关键方面，并确定影响因素，以支持可持续的水管理工作。此外，它还试图估计家庭为改善与水有关的属性（如管道爆裂、水量、可靠性、压力和价格）而支付的意愿。该分析基于选择建模方法，使用通过涉及250名受访者的问卷调查收集的数据。所提出的研究结果对供水服务供应商开发新项目具有重要和有益的意义。此外，决策者可以利用这些信息制定政策，确保向消费者提供有效的服务。

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引用次数: 0

Is global human well-being peaking? 全球人类福祉达到顶峰了吗？

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2025.100265

R. Quentin Grafton , Long Chu , Tom Kompas , Safa Fanaian

We undertook multiple individual country time trend analyses using post 1990 data and estimated that real GDP per capita and life expectancy at birth, together, are projected to have peaked before 2050 for about two-thirds of the world’s population and at levels far below their current values in upper high-income countries. We found there are ‘flourishing’ countries where human well-being is already high and will likely increase, but a much larger group of ‘languishing’ countries where human well-being has peaked, or will likely peak, before 2050. We estimated a positive time-series association between real per capita income and broader composite (e.g. Human Development Index) well-being indicators, but this association diminishes in the level of real per capita income. A mitigation response to peaking average global human well-being is cross-country monetary transfers from higher- to lower-income countries. Thus, we calculated two possible global transfers: one equal to 1.3 trillion/year USD in total and an alternative based on the projected climate change damage to low to middle-income countries. Each global transfer would impose only a relatively small proportional cost on the national income of contributing countries but could provide very large average human well-being benefits to the poor and most vulnerable in low-income countries.

我们利用1990年后的数据对多个国家进行了时间趋势分析，并估计，全球约三分之二的人口的实际人均GDP和出生时预期寿命预计将在2050年之前达到峰值，而高收入国家的实际人均GDP和预期寿命将远低于目前的水平。我们发现，有些“繁荣”国家的人类福祉已经很高，而且可能会增加，但更多的“衰落”国家的人类福祉已经达到顶峰，或者可能在2050年之前达到顶峰。我们估计实际人均收入与更广泛的综合（如人类发展指数）福祉指标之间存在正时序关联，但这种关联在实际人均收入水平上减弱。对全球平均人类福祉达到峰值的缓解对策是从高收入国家向低收入国家进行跨国货币转移。因此，我们计算了两种可能的全球转移：一种相当于每年1.3万亿美元的总额，另一种是基于对中低收入国家气候变化损害的预测。每次全球转移只会对捐助国的国民收入造成相对较小的比例成本，但可以为低收入国家的穷人和最弱势群体提供非常大的平均人类福祉。

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引用次数: 0

Energy structure and investment efforts shaping green economic growth 能源结构和投资努力塑造绿色经济增长

World Development Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2025.100263

Oleksii Lyulyov , Tetyana Pimonenko

Transitions toward greener patterns of economic development progress unevenly across countries, even when long-term sustainability goals are broadly aligned. These differences suggest that measurable improvements may emerge either gradually or only after specific structural conditions are reached. This study aims to identify the long-run drivers of green economic growth and to determine whether their effects emerge gradually or after specific structural thresholds are reached. The analysis covers 28 European countries, including Ukraine, from 2004 to 2023. Green economic growth is measured using adjusted net savings. The study estimates three long-run panel models that examine the effects of energy efficiency, renewable energy (including a nonlinear threshold specification), and green finance. The analysis employs panel cointegration tests, OLS with panel-corrected standard errors, fully modified OLS, feasible GLS, and nonlinear models that capture threshold behaviour. The results show that higher energy efficiency consistently strengthens long-term green economic growth across all countries. Renewable energy exhibits a nonlinear pattern: at early stages, limited renewable deployment generates transitional costs and infrastructure constraints, whereas after reaching a critical scale, further expansion strongly improves green economic performance. Green finance demonstrates a positive and lasting impact, indicating that a sustained financial commitment to low-carbon investments gradually translates into measurable economic and environmental benefits. Ukraine exhibits a greater sensitivity to energy inefficiency and limited benefits from renewables, largely due to insufficient deployment and institutional constraints. Policy implications highlight that green transition policies do not generate uniform outcomes across countries. Effective strategies require accelerating large-scale efficiency improvements, reaching the renewable deployment threshold where positive returns emerge, and strengthening governance to enhance the impact of green financial flows. For Ukraine, alignment with EU regulatory frameworks and targeted institutional capacity building are essential steps for narrowing the gap with EU member states.

即使长期可持续发展目标大体一致，各国向绿色经济发展模式的转型进展也不均衡。这些差异表明，可衡量的改善可能会逐渐出现，也可能只有在达到特定的结构条件后才会出现。本研究旨在确定绿色经济增长的长期驱动因素，并确定其影响是逐渐出现的，还是在达到特定的结构阈值之后才出现的。该分析涵盖了包括乌克兰在内的28个欧洲国家，时间从2004年到2023年。绿色经济增长是用调整后的净储蓄来衡量的。该研究估计了三个长期面板模型，这些模型检验了能源效率、可再生能源（包括非线性阈值规范）和绿色金融的影响。分析采用面板协整检验、带有面板校正标准误差的OLS、完全修正的OLS、可行GLS和捕捉阈值行为的非线性模型。研究结果表明，更高的能源效率持续加强了所有国家的长期绿色经济增长。可再生能源表现出一种非线性模式：在早期阶段，有限的可再生能源部署会产生过渡成本和基础设施限制，而在达到临界规模后，进一步扩张会有力地提高绿色经济绩效。绿色金融显示出积极和持久的影响，表明对低碳投资的持续金融承诺逐渐转化为可衡量的经济和环境效益。乌克兰对能源效率低下和可再生能源效益有限表现出更大的敏感性，这主要是由于部署不足和制度限制。政策影响突出表明，绿色转型政策不会在各国产生统一的结果。有效的战略需要加快大规模的效率提高，达到可再生能源部署的门槛，从而产生正回报，并加强治理以增强绿色资金流动的影响。对乌克兰来说，与欧盟监管框架保持一致以及有针对性的机构能力建设是缩小与欧盟成员国差距的关键步骤。

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引用次数: 0