{"title":"未来一瞥:揭示认知障碍患者生存的关键因素","authors":"Libing Wei, Dikang Pan, Sensen Wu, Hui Wang, Jingyu Wang, Lianrui Guo, Yongquan Gu","doi":"10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"BackgroundDrawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI).MethodsThis study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011–2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models.ResultsThe study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration.ConclusionTo sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning.","PeriodicalId":12450,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A glimpse into the future: revealing the key factors for survival in cognitively impaired patients\",\"authors\":\"Libing Wei, Dikang Pan, Sensen Wu, Hui Wang, Jingyu Wang, Lianrui Guo, Yongquan Gu\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"BackgroundDrawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI).MethodsThis study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011–2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models.ResultsThe study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration.ConclusionTo sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning.\",\"PeriodicalId\":12450,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fnagi.2024.1376693","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GERIATRICS & GERONTOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A glimpse into the future: revealing the key factors for survival in cognitively impaired patients
BackgroundDrawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI).MethodsThis study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011–2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models.ResultsThe study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (n = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration.ConclusionTo sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning.
期刊介绍:
Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience is a leading journal in its field, publishing rigorously peer-reviewed research that advances our understanding of the mechanisms of Central Nervous System aging and age-related neural diseases. Specialty Chief Editor Thomas Wisniewski at the New York University School of Medicine is supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international researchers. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.