Effect of Initial Inoculum on the Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Wheat Blast Under Field Conditions in Bolivia.

Epidemiological studies to better understand wheat blast (WB) spatial and temporal patterns were conducted in three field environments in Bolivia between 2019 and 2020. The temporal dynamics of wheat leaf blast (W_LB) and spike blast (W_SB) were best described by the logistic model compared with the Gompertz and exponential models. The nonlinear logistic infection rates were higher under defined inoculation in experiments two and three than under undefined inoculation in experiment one, and they were also higher for W_SB than for W_LB. The onset of W_LB began with a spatial clustering pattern according to autocorrelation analysis and Moran's index values, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation until the last sampling time. The W_SB onset did not start with a spatial clustering pattern; instead, it was detected later until the last sampling date across experiments, with higher severity and earlier onset for defined than for undefined inoculation. Maximum severity (K_max) was 1.0 for W_SB and less than 1.0 for W_LB. Aggregation of W_LB and W_SB was higher for defined than for undefined inoculation. The directionality of hotspot development was similar for both W_LB and W_SB, mainly occurring concentrically for defined inoculation. Our results show no evidence of synchronized development but suggest a temporal and spatial progression of disease symptoms on wheat leaves and spikes. Thus, we recommend that monitoring and management of WB should be considered during early growth stages of wheat planted in areas of high risk.