Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China’s livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost

The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China’s carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country’s livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4–6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e−1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China. Reducing China’s methane emissions is key to achieving carbon neutrality. Using four national-scale field surveys, a high-resolution dataset of Chinese methane emissions over the period 1990−2020 is compiled and used to estimate past and future emission trajectories while highlighting cost-effective mitigation measures.