你相信模型的猜测吗？

Noûs Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.1111/nous.12519

Sophie Horowitz

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摘要

什么是信用？这些数字从何而来？有些人认为它们是原始的；有些人则认为它们是我们下注的倾向、比较信心判断或全面信念的模型。本文探讨了这一问题的新答案：信用是我们猜测的倾向的模型。我认为我们可以这样看待信用，然后再考虑：我们应该这样做吗？

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Do credences model guesses?

What are credences? Where do the numbers come from? Some have argued that they are brute and primitive; others, that they model our dispositions to bet, our comparative confidence judgments, or our all‐out beliefs. This paper explores a new answer to this question: credences model our dispositions to guess. I argue that we can think of credences this way, and then consider: should we?

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Noûs

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