气候变化对国家内部收入分配的影响

IF 5.5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103012
Martino Gilli , Matteo Calcaterra , Johannes Emmerling , Francesco Granella
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摘要

本文研究了气候变化与收入不平等之间的关系,认识到气候变化对各国内部和各国之间不同收入水平的经济影响并不一致。利用现有气候与经济增长文献中的方法,我们按国内收入十分位数分析了气温上升对经济的影响。我们的研究结果表明,即使考虑到一个国家适应气候影响的能力,气候变化对国内较贫困人口的影响也不成比例,而较富裕家庭遭受的损失较小。在不采取额外气候行动(升温 3.6°C)的参考情景下,我们估计气候影响可能导致基尼系数上升达 6 个百分点,尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。我们通过 RICE50+ 模型预测了 2100 年的影响,并估算了各国内部影响的收入弹性。我们的估算结果表明,气候变化的损害是递减的,在我们首选的规范下,损害的收入弹性为 0.6。另一方面,气候惠益近似于分配中性或略有进步。
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Climate change impacts on the within-country income distributions

This paper investigates the relationship between climate change and income inequality, recognizing that the economic impacts of climate change are not uniform across different levels of income within and across countries. Using methods from the existing literature on climate and economic growth, we analyze the economic impact of rising temperatures by within-country income decile. Our findings suggest that climate change disproportionately affects the poorer segments of the population within countries, even after accounting for a country’s ability to adapt to climate impacts, while richer households suffer lower damages. In the reference scenario without additional climate action (3.6°C warming), we estimate that climate impacts could lead to an increase in the Gini index by up to six percentage points, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa. We project impacts to 2100 through the RICE50+ model and estimate the income elasticity of impacts within countries. Our estimates indicate that climate change damages are regressive, with an income elasticity of damages of 0.6 under our preferred specification. On the other hand, climate benefits are approximately distribution-neutral or slightly progressive.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
4.30%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management publishes theoretical and empirical papers devoted to specific natural resources and environmental issues. For consideration, papers should (1) contain a substantial element embodying the linkage between economic systems and environmental and natural resources systems or (2) be of substantial importance in understanding the management and/or social control of the economy in its relations with the natural environment. Although the general orientation of the journal is toward economics, interdisciplinary papers by researchers in other fields of interest to resource and environmental economists will be welcomed.
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