划定斋浦尔登革热风险区:为公共卫生战略提供信息的跨学科方法。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI:10.1111/risa.15102
Shruti Kanga, Priyanka Roy, Suraj Kumar Singh, Gowhar Meraj, Pankaj Kumar, Jatan Debnath
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引用次数: 0

摘要

登革热(DF)是热带气候地区普遍存在的公共卫生问题,印度等人口稠密地区受到的影响尤为严重。要解决这一问题,需要从多方面了解导致登革热感染风险的环境和社会文化因素。本研究旨在通过在综合风险分析框架中整合物理、人口和流行病学数据,确定印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔的登革热高风险区。我们调查了土壤类型和植物覆盖率等环境变量,以确定主要登革热病媒埃及伊蚊的潜在栖息地特征。同时,我们还评估了人口统计学指标,以评估人口对登革热爆发的易感性。通过对每个选区的人口密度和发病率进行综合比较分析,系统地确定了高风险地区。结果表明,人口密度高与登革热疫情风险增加之间存在明显的相关性,而登革热疫情主要是通过垂直传播途径传播的。从空间上看,这些高风险区集中在斋浦尔的北部和南部,其中北部和西南部的病房风险最高。这项研究强调了在易感地区开展有针对性的公共卫生干预和疫苗接种活动的重要性。它还为今后评估此类干预措施有效性的研究奠定了基础,从而有助于制定以证据为基础的降低登革热风险的有力战略。
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Delineating dengue risk zones in Jaipur: An interdisciplinary approach to inform public health strategies.

Dengue fever (DF) is a pervasive public health concern in tropical climates, with densely populated regions, such as India, disproportionately affected. Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted understanding of the environmental and sociocultural factors that contribute to the risk of dengue infection. This study aimed to identify high-risk zones for DF in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, by integrating physical, demographic, and epidemiological data in a comprehensive risk analysis framework. We investigated environmental variables, such as soil type and plant cover, to characterize the potential habitats of Aedes aegypti, the primary dengue vector. Concurrently, demographic metrics were evaluated to assess the population's susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. High-risk areas were systematically identified through a comparative analysis that integrated population density and incidence rates per ward. The results revealed a significant correlation between high population density and an increased risk of dengue, predominantly facilitated by vertical transmission. Spatially, these high-risk zones are concentrated in the northern and southern sectors of Jaipur, with the northern and southwestern wards exhibiting the most acute risk profiles. This study underscores the importance of targeted public health interventions and vaccination campaigns in vulnerable areas. It further lays the groundwork for future research to evaluate the effectiveness of such interventions, thereby contributing to the development of robust evidence-based strategies for dengue risk mitigation.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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