Binjiao Zheng, Gangfeng Ding, Guangrong Lu, Lili Li
{"title":"开发预后提名图并进行外部验证,以预测年龄≥60 岁的胰腺导管腺癌患者的生存率。","authors":"Binjiao Zheng, Gangfeng Ding, Guangrong Lu, Lili Li","doi":"10.21037/tcr-24-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), which accounts for the vast majority of pancreatic cancer (PC), is a highly aggressive malignancy with a dismal prognosis. Age is shown to be an independent factor affecting survival outcomes in patients with PDAC. Our study aimed to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict survival in PDAC patients aged ≥60 years.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data of PDAC patients aged ≥60 years were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determined prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and two nomograms were constructed and validated by calibration plots, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, 432 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were included as an external cohort. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to further verify the clinical validity of the nomograms.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Ten independent prognostic factors were identified to establish the nomograms. The C-indexes of the training and validation groups based on the OS nomogram were 0.759 and 0.760, higher than those of the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.638 and 0.636, respectively). Calibration curves showed high consistency between predictions and observations. Better area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values and DCA were also obtained compared to the TNM system. The risk stratification based on the nomogram could distinguish patients with different survival risks.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We constructed and externally validated a population-based survival-predicting nomogram for PDAC patients aged ≥60 years. The new model could help clinicians personalize survival prediction and risk assessment.</p>","PeriodicalId":23216,"journal":{"name":"Translational cancer research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11231776/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram to predict survival in patients aged ≥60 years with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.\",\"authors\":\"Binjiao Zheng, Gangfeng Ding, Guangrong Lu, Lili Li\",\"doi\":\"10.21037/tcr-24-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), which accounts for the vast majority of pancreatic cancer (PC), is a highly aggressive malignancy with a dismal prognosis. Age is shown to be an independent factor affecting survival outcomes in patients with PDAC. Our study aimed to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict survival in PDAC patients aged ≥60 years.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data of PDAC patients aged ≥60 years were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determined prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and two nomograms were constructed and validated by calibration plots, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, 432 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were included as an external cohort. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to further verify the clinical validity of the nomograms.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Ten independent prognostic factors were identified to establish the nomograms. The C-indexes of the training and validation groups based on the OS nomogram were 0.759 and 0.760, higher than those of the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.638 and 0.636, respectively). Calibration curves showed high consistency between predictions and observations. Better area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values and DCA were also obtained compared to the TNM system. The risk stratification based on the nomogram could distinguish patients with different survival risks.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We constructed and externally validated a population-based survival-predicting nomogram for PDAC patients aged ≥60 years. The new model could help clinicians personalize survival prediction and risk assessment.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23216,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Translational cancer research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11231776/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Translational cancer research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21037/tcr-24-5\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/6/13 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Translational cancer research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21037/tcr-24-5","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/6/13 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram to predict survival in patients aged ≥60 years with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.
Background: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), which accounts for the vast majority of pancreatic cancer (PC), is a highly aggressive malignancy with a dismal prognosis. Age is shown to be an independent factor affecting survival outcomes in patients with PDAC. Our study aimed to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict survival in PDAC patients aged ≥60 years.
Methods: Data of PDAC patients aged ≥60 years were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determined prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), and two nomograms were constructed and validated by calibration plots, concordance index (C-index) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, 432 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University were included as an external cohort. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to further verify the clinical validity of the nomograms.
Results: Ten independent prognostic factors were identified to establish the nomograms. The C-indexes of the training and validation groups based on the OS nomogram were 0.759 and 0.760, higher than those of the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.638 and 0.636, respectively). Calibration curves showed high consistency between predictions and observations. Better area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values and DCA were also obtained compared to the TNM system. The risk stratification based on the nomogram could distinguish patients with different survival risks.
Conclusions: We constructed and externally validated a population-based survival-predicting nomogram for PDAC patients aged ≥60 years. The new model could help clinicians personalize survival prediction and risk assessment.
期刊介绍:
Translational Cancer Research (Transl Cancer Res TCR; Print ISSN: 2218-676X; Online ISSN 2219-6803; http://tcr.amegroups.com/) is an Open Access, peer-reviewed journal, indexed in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE). TCR publishes laboratory studies of novel therapeutic interventions as well as clinical trials which evaluate new treatment paradigms for cancer; results of novel research investigations which bridge the laboratory and clinical settings including risk assessment, cellular and molecular characterization, prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of human cancers with the overall goal of improving the clinical care of cancer patients. The focus of TCR is original, peer-reviewed, science-based research that successfully advances clinical medicine toward the goal of improving patients'' quality of life. The editors and an international advisory group of scientists and clinician-scientists as well as other experts will hold TCR articles to the high-quality standards. We accept Original Articles as well as Review Articles, Editorials and Brief Articles.