Informality and aggregate productivity: The case of Mexico

This paper develops and estimates a quantitative model to analyze the aggregate productivity consequences of informality in Mexico. While informality is typically viewed as prevailing solely among small firms, we use rich census data to document a high and rising share of large informal firms between 1998 and 2013. The model is quantified using the observed size and productivity distributions of both informal and formal firms. We use the model to assess the role of changes in labor market regulations, entry costs and enforcement in contributing to the rise in informality and decline in TFP in Mexico from 1998 to 2013. We find that the factors most important for the decline in aggregate productivity were not important drivers of the increase in informality, and conversely, the factors most important for the increase in informality had little impact on aggregate productivity. Regulatory changes during the 2000s contributed to over a third of the observed rise in the informal employment share, but with small aggregate productivity consequences. In contrast, rising entry costs account for a third of the decline in TFP from 1998 to 2013, but had little impact on informality.