Hannah Crothers , James Ferguson , Mohammed Nabil Quraishi , Rachel Cooney , Tariq H. Iqbal , Palak J. Trivedi
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In so doing, the past and current prevalence of PSC-IBD and IBD alone was determined among 18–60-year-olds in England, alongside average annual percentage change rates (AAPC), between the 1st of January 2015 and 2020. Past and current prevalence data, alongside trends in incidence and event-free survival rates, were then used to forecast future prevalence between 2021 and 2027.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>In 2015, the prevalence of PSC with prior IBD diagnosis was 5.0 per 100,000 population, rising to 5.7 when including those with IBD diagnosed after PSC. In 2020, prevalence increased to 7.6 (8.6 accounting for IBD developing after PSC), yielding an AAPC of 8.8. In 2027, PSC-IBD prevalence is forecast to be 11.7 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 10.8–12.7), and 13.3 when accounting for IBD developing after PSC (AAPC: 6.4; 95% PI: 5.3–7.5). Comparatively, the prevalence of IBD alone rose among 18–60-year-olds from 384.3 in 2015 to 538.7 in 2020 (AAPC 7.0), and forecast to increase to 742.5 by 2027 (95% PI: 736.4–748.0; AAPC: 4.7, 95% PI: 4.6–4.8).</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>The rate of growth in PSC-IBD is predicted to exceed IBD-alone. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including aetiological drivers of developing (invariably progressive) liver disease in IBD, and the implications of rising case burden on health care resources.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>This study was supported by an unrestricted grant provided by <span>Gilead Sciences</span>.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":53223,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Regional Health-Europe","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776224001698/pdfft?md5=2f086ddbe5a5f36ce2f1b7c18e57898e&pid=1-s2.0-S2666776224001698-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Past, current, and future trends in the prevalence of primary sclerosing cholangitis and inflammatory bowel disease across England (2015–2027): a nationwide, population-based study\",\"authors\":\"Hannah Crothers , James Ferguson , Mohammed Nabil Quraishi , Rachel Cooney , Tariq H. Iqbal , Palak J. Trivedi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.101002\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation in Europe, and a major risk factor for cancer in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, it is not known how the epidemiology of PSC will change as that of IBD evolves. The aim of this study is to provide nationwide statistics on the past and current prevalence of PSC and IBD across England, and forecast how this is likely to change over time.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We accessed and analysed a nationwide population-based administrative healthcare registry, which houses prospectively accrued data since April 1st 2001. In so doing, the past and current prevalence of PSC-IBD and IBD alone was determined among 18–60-year-olds in England, alongside average annual percentage change rates (AAPC), between the 1st of January 2015 and 2020. Past and current prevalence data, alongside trends in incidence and event-free survival rates, were then used to forecast future prevalence between 2021 and 2027.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>In 2015, the prevalence of PSC with prior IBD diagnosis was 5.0 per 100,000 population, rising to 5.7 when including those with IBD diagnosed after PSC. In 2020, prevalence increased to 7.6 (8.6 accounting for IBD developing after PSC), yielding an AAPC of 8.8. In 2027, PSC-IBD prevalence is forecast to be 11.7 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 10.8–12.7), and 13.3 when accounting for IBD developing after PSC (AAPC: 6.4; 95% PI: 5.3–7.5). Comparatively, the prevalence of IBD alone rose among 18–60-year-olds from 384.3 in 2015 to 538.7 in 2020 (AAPC 7.0), and forecast to increase to 742.5 by 2027 (95% PI: 736.4–748.0; AAPC: 4.7, 95% PI: 4.6–4.8).</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>The rate of growth in PSC-IBD is predicted to exceed IBD-alone. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including aetiological drivers of developing (invariably progressive) liver disease in IBD, and the implications of rising case burden on health care resources.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>This study was supported by an unrestricted grant provided by <span>Gilead Sciences</span>.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":53223,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Lancet Regional Health-Europe\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776224001698/pdfft?md5=2f086ddbe5a5f36ce2f1b7c18e57898e&pid=1-s2.0-S2666776224001698-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Lancet Regional Health-Europe\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776224001698\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Regional Health-Europe","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776224001698","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Past, current, and future trends in the prevalence of primary sclerosing cholangitis and inflammatory bowel disease across England (2015–2027): a nationwide, population-based study
Background
Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation in Europe, and a major risk factor for cancer in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, it is not known how the epidemiology of PSC will change as that of IBD evolves. The aim of this study is to provide nationwide statistics on the past and current prevalence of PSC and IBD across England, and forecast how this is likely to change over time.
Methods
We accessed and analysed a nationwide population-based administrative healthcare registry, which houses prospectively accrued data since April 1st 2001. In so doing, the past and current prevalence of PSC-IBD and IBD alone was determined among 18–60-year-olds in England, alongside average annual percentage change rates (AAPC), between the 1st of January 2015 and 2020. Past and current prevalence data, alongside trends in incidence and event-free survival rates, were then used to forecast future prevalence between 2021 and 2027.
Findings
In 2015, the prevalence of PSC with prior IBD diagnosis was 5.0 per 100,000 population, rising to 5.7 when including those with IBD diagnosed after PSC. In 2020, prevalence increased to 7.6 (8.6 accounting for IBD developing after PSC), yielding an AAPC of 8.8. In 2027, PSC-IBD prevalence is forecast to be 11.7 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 10.8–12.7), and 13.3 when accounting for IBD developing after PSC (AAPC: 6.4; 95% PI: 5.3–7.5). Comparatively, the prevalence of IBD alone rose among 18–60-year-olds from 384.3 in 2015 to 538.7 in 2020 (AAPC 7.0), and forecast to increase to 742.5 by 2027 (95% PI: 736.4–748.0; AAPC: 4.7, 95% PI: 4.6–4.8).
Interpretation
The rate of growth in PSC-IBD is predicted to exceed IBD-alone. Further research is needed to understand changes in disease epidemiology, including aetiological drivers of developing (invariably progressive) liver disease in IBD, and the implications of rising case burden on health care resources.
Funding
This study was supported by an unrestricted grant provided by Gilead Sciences.
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, a gold open access journal, is part of The Lancet's global effort to promote healthcare quality and accessibility worldwide. It focuses on advancing clinical practice and health policy in the European region to enhance health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research advocating changes in clinical practice and health policy. It also includes reviews, commentaries, and opinion pieces on regional health topics, such as infection and disease prevention, healthy aging, and reducing health disparities.
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