{"title":"2100 年欧洲的寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅病毒--基于地理信息系统的风险评估模型。","authors":"J. Kronen , M. Leuchner , T. Küpper","doi":"10.1016/j.tmaid.2024.102737","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":23312,"journal":{"name":"Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102737"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147789392400053X/pdfft?md5=884527ce36de6a0fcea841a593afdfe9&pid=1-s2.0-S147789392400053X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Zika and Chikungunya in Europe 2100 – A GIS based model for risk estimation\",\"authors\":\"J. Kronen , M. Leuchner , T. Küpper\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tmaid.2024.102737\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":23312,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease\",\"volume\":\"60 \",\"pages\":\"Article 102737\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147789392400053X/pdfft?md5=884527ce36de6a0fcea841a593afdfe9&pid=1-s2.0-S147789392400053X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147789392400053X\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147789392400053X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Zika and Chikungunya in Europe 2100 – A GIS based model for risk estimation
Background
The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.
Methods
Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.
Results
Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.
Conclusion
Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.
期刊介绍：
Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
Publication Scope:
Publishes original papers, reviews, and consensus papers
Primary theme: infectious disease in the context of travel medicine
Focus Areas:
Epidemiology and surveillance of travel-related illness
Prevention and treatment of travel-associated infections
Malaria prevention and treatment
Travellers' diarrhoea
Infections associated with mass gatherings
Migration-related infections
Vaccines and vaccine-preventable disease
Global policy/regulations for disease prevention and control
Practical clinical issues for travel and tropical medicine practitioners
Coverage:
Addresses areas of controversy and debate in travel medicine
Aims to inform guidelines and policy pertinent to travel medicine and the prevention of infectious disease
Publication Features:
Offers a fast peer-review process
Provides early online publication of accepted manuscripts
Aims to publish cutting-edge papers
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